PPP (D) -Clinton reclaims NH lead; Trump still up big- HRC 41% (+6) SBS 33% (-9) JB 11 (-4)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Clinton reclaims NH lead; Trump still up big

PPP's new New Hampshire Democratic poll finds that Hillary Clinton's moved back into the lead in the state. She gets 41% to 33% for Bernie Sanders with Joe Biden at only 11%, Martin O'Malley at 4%, and Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb each at 2%. Since PPP last polled New Hampshire in August Clinton's gone up 6 points from her then 35% standing, while Sanders has dropped 9 points from his then 42% standing.

Clinton's rise comes as her image with Democratic voters in the state has improved by a good amount. Her favorability (+56 at 73/17) has improved a net 18 points from August when she was at +38 (63/25) with primary voters. The key for her is that she has narrowed things up among Sanders' core groups of supporters. With 'very liberal' voters Sanders leads her only 43/42, with men Sanders leads her only 35/34, and with younger voters Sanders is ahead 42/34. Meanwhile Clinton remains dominant with the groups most friendly to her- she's up 50/24 with seniors, 47/31 with women, and leads by at least 8 points with every ideological group besides 'very liberal' voters.

Independents are a big part of the puzzle even keeping New Hampshire competitive at all. They account for about a third of the Democratic primary electorate, and Sanders has a 40/32 advantage over Clinton with them. Among actual Democrats Clinton leads Sanders by 18 points at 47/29, pretty similar to the national picture- it's really the unusual representation of non-Democrats in the Democratic primary in the state that has the race there looking competitive.

Joe Biden is actually the most popular of the candidates in New Hampshire, with a 78/10 favorability rating. But it doesn't equate to much support for the nomination (11%) and Biden lags behind Clinton, 24/21, even when it comes to who voters' second choice would be. If Biden doesn't end up running for the nomination Clinton will benefit, since 40% of Biden voters say she would be their second choice to only 15% for Sanders. Reallocate Biden backers to their next pick, and Clinton's lead over Sanders goes up to 45/35.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/10/clinton-reclaims-nh-lead-trump-still-up-big.html

[randys1]

1. That Trump is still in the lead, is really great news.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Great news all around, my friend...

eom

[still_one]

3. By our standards it should be, but looking at similar pools it indicates Trump leading ALL the

Democratic candidates in a match up. Maybe they are oversampling republicans, but I get very nervous when there appears to be a lot of people accepting this racist jerk

[randys1]

4. National polls show Trump leading our people? I would be surprised by that

[still_one]

5. I'll get the links. I may have mis-spoke, and it may have been state match-ups, I'll recheck, thank

[still_one]

6. Here are the links randy. I misspoke. Though the numbers are closer than I would like to see

Thanks for pointing out my error, I appreciate it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html

[randys1]

7. No no, thank YOU...they are WAY too close for me, what in the world is wrong with people

reminds me of this




According to that Bernie has a better chance against them, I dont know how that is possible this early in given the socialist crap they lay on him.

[still_one]

8. I agree with you assessment, hopefully it was an oversampling of republicans. We really have

the demographics on our side on almost every category.

[hibbing]

20. H.L. Mencken

No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.


Peace

[oasis]

9. Breaking news: U.S. And Russia Reach Agreement Over Syrian Airspace.

Expect Hillary's numbers to rise even higher now that her foreign policy instincts on this issue have been validated.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. She might not be the leader we deserve but she's the leader we need.

eom

[oasis]

11. She's equal to the task, for sure. (eom)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. I think that line is from Batman

eom

[oasis]

14. Maybe. My boss often said that to me as he was loading me up

with extra work. He was right about my abilities and I was rewarded accordingly.

I still remember those words 40+ years later.

[uponit7771]

12. But did they poll puppies that were watching the debate on Thursday? No?! Well there it is then!!!

[trumad]

15. LOL

[Robbins]

16. keep posting this i see

yep we all know there is no place for liberals and progressives anymore in democratic pary or should i say Clinton party

you and fellow centrist dems can be happy.

Chances of President Trump In 2017 have gone up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. I took the Political Compass and got + 7s which put me to the left of the Dalai Lama

If I am a centrist my fellow Democrats are Atilla the Hun.

[FSogol]

17. Martin O'Malley at 4%. Who is the only candidate that quadrupled his support since the debate?

[DrBulldog]

19. But why don't you also report today's bi-weekly national Google Consumer Survey as well?

You know, the #2-rated national polling organization in terms of accuracy rated by Nate Silver?