See Larry Sabato's Crystal ball's electoral map as of today

[Ashleyshubby]

237 electoral votes leaning, likely or safe for President Obama,

206 leaning, likely or safe for Mitt Romney and

95 in the toss-up category.



Image taken from article in the following link: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/rating-changes-two-new-toss-ups/

[Skittles]

1. throw in the repuke efforts to deny people the right to vote

and a prez Mitt could happen

[INdemo]

9. I think if that were to happen and they stole it

it would like Chicago 1968..nation wide..and I would think the banksters know this...

[RainbowOverTexas]

2. Romney...

..would be lucky to get 206, after the RNC it will be all downhill for the GOP

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

3. I think Nevada is likely Dem, as is CO.

[Tx4obama]

4. Here's a link to a LIST of LINKS to 'several' 2012 Presidential Electoral Vote Forecast Maps

Last edited Mon Aug 27, 2012, 01:07 AM - Edit history (1)

Here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/125175126


Everyone should look at a lot more than one map to get a better idea of what's going on

[brooklynite]

5. Interesting that Arizona is no longer a Republican lock...

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Larry Sabato's map is lame...

Too many toss-ups. It's useless. Those states aren't toss-ups and won't be toss-ups on election night - someone is going to win 'em. So, take a side, Larry or just shut down.

[Proud liberal 80]

10. Yes

Funny how NC is lean Romney, while Nevada, colorado, new Hampshire, and Ohio are toss ups. Right now RCP has Obama +1.8 in Ohio, 1.6 in Colorado, +3.5 in new Hampshire, and 4.2 in Nevada, but this clown list them as toss ups. I wouldn't have a problem with it if he had NC in that catagory, Romey is only up +1 there.

[Ashleyshubby]

11. Do you think the Huffington Post map is lame or non-lame?

?

[Drunken Irishman]

12. I don't know...do they have toss-ups too?

I don't like maps with toss-ups. Unless the polls show it an exact tie, I see it pointless to classify a state as a toss-up.

[Ashleyshubby]

16. Yes, they have toss-ups

So let's clarify that your list of lame maps is much longer than originally thought.

[Drunken Irishman]

17. Nothing to clarify ... any map with a toss-up is lame...

I don't care if it's Huffington Post or whatever ... toss-ups don't exist. There is no such thing as a toss-up. You can't tie a presidential election.

[Ashleyshubby]

18. Elections don't have margins of error. Polls do

These maps are based on polls, not on an election.

Election results are definitive. Poll results are not.

If Obama or Romney wins by one vote on November 4th, he won. That's it. The end. But if Obama or Romney is up by a very small percentage, a map cannot assume that this percentage will continue till the end, because these maps are based on polls The small lead is assumed to be non-safe.

[Drunken Irishman]

19. A small lead is still a lead. It is not a toss-up...

A toss-up implies that if you run a certain election 100 times, one candidate will win half the time and the other the other half.

Obama has an average lead of 4 points in Nevada. I don't consider that a toss-up. Sabato does...even though Romney has an average lead of 1% ... that's why it's trash. There is no rhyme or reason. Why is Nevada considered a toss-up but North Carolina isn't?

[Hippo_Tron]

13. It's hardly useless, we can assume with reasonable certainty that neither candidate wins all tossups

So you start breaking down the potential scenarios for where the tossups go and get a reasonable picture of the odds of each candidate winning the election.

My assertion is that if Romney can't at a bare minimum put Pennsylvania into play, his odds of winning the election are slim. Bush won in 2004 by forcing Kerry to defend Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Washington, Oregon, and even Hawaii. Even though Kerry won all of these states in the end, it stretched his resources rather thin, and limited the 2000 red states that he could target.

This electoral map tells me that Romney is most likely losing right now. If we start to see Pennsylvania move into the tossup column, that's the game-changer he needs to have a shot.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. It is most certainly lame for the reasons you stated...

What does this map tell us? Absolutely nothing. Neither Romney or Obama receives enough electoral votes to claim the presidency and you and I both know, in the end, someone is crossing 270.

No state is a toss-up. A toss-up implies that if you held an election there 100 times, Romney would win 50% of the time and Obama would win 50% of the time and I disagree with that reasoning. This is a cheap way of trying to force the race to look closer than it actually is - something the media is good at doing - while also not making a concrete claim.

Is Obama going to win all the toss-ups? Maybe ... maybe not - but he's going to win some of 'em. What this map suggests is that it's anyone's ball game and I don't think that's the case. It's still Obama's to lose and the map shouldn't classify Nevada as a toss-up and North Carolina as leaning-Romney, when Obama's lead in Nevada is actually larger than Romney's in North Carolina.

Sorry, but I think this map sucks. It doesn't tell us anything unless you really delve into it. Now make a call, come down on one side or the other ... show us who you think will win Nevada or Ohio or Florida because that's where this election will be won. Right now, Sabato is taking the easy way out.

[Hippo_Tron]

21. We both agree this is Obama's to lose, I believe this map shows that

The 2000 electoral map is a rough picture of what a virtual tie looks like (albeit with a bit of a shift to the Republicans due to re-districting).

This map shows a total of 16 electoral votes that Gore won as tossups. It shows 79 electoral votes that Bush won (or were given to him by the Supreme Court) as tossups. Obama needs 33 of the tossup electoral votes to make 270. If 16 come from the Gore 2000 states, he only needs 17 from the Bush 2000 states.

This map looks awful for Romney.

[demosincebirth]

7. Here's one--fresh off the press.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[grantcart]

15. Pretty good except Iowa

Making a state red because of Ras is worth a laugh.

Romney's move against wind farms is going to be the final nail in Romney's Iowa coffin.

With Medicare dominating the GE paint Florida blue.

[Motown_Johnny]

8. Rmoney needs to win FL, OH and VA plus one more.

When/if President Obama wins one of those three states it becomes almost impossible for Rmoney to reach 270. If he wins 2 then it is over.

We have far more viable paths to 270. Far more.

[TroyD]

20. Obama has led in Nevada all year

I don't see why he has Nevada as a Toss-Up since Obama has led there all year. I don't think Romney has been ahead in so much as a single poll. Nate Silver gives it about a 75% chance of voting for Obama.

Still, I suppose it is technically a swing state based on its previous history, so I guess he is just being cautious and taking his job as an analyst seriously.

[sofa king]

22. Are we all registered to vote?