WAPO/ABC comes up with yet another pro-Romney pseudo-poll

[Ashleyshubby]

A new poll is out where Romney leads Obama by 1%. Before counting this as a legitimate poll, please know the context of how this poll has compared to others in the past.

Back In July, a Reuters, WAPO/ABC and Quinnipiac had polls that were conducted in overlapping days.

Reuters had Obama up by 6%, Quinnipiac had Obama up by 3%, but WAPO/ABC had it as a tie.

WAPO/ABC is a pro-Romney pollster.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-obama-romney-neck-and-neck-ahead-of-party-conventions/2012/08/26/62882360-efc3-11e1-adc6-87dfa8eff430_story.html

[Ashleyshubby]

2. Oh. and both CNN and WAPO/ABC are among RV

and conducted at overlapping dates, yet there is a humongous 10% difference on the margin. Obama ahead by 9% in CNN (August 22-23), and Romney ahead 1% in WAPO/ABC (August 22-25)

[TroyD]

3. Hopefully the poll is wrong

It would be distressing if Romney went up the week after the GOP has been exposed as the party of rape and backwards thinking.

[BelieveMe3]

4. Ugh

I don't like any poll that has Romney up. I do feel the welfare ads have worked--they are an outright lie, but it fits a narrative that a democrat would gut welfare. As Bill Maher said it made it sound like Obama was walking through the ghetto handing out money. I'm not sure what else they could have done to combat it, but the pushback the Sopic ad got by the GOP laid the groundwork that Obama might not tell the full truth and I think the public overall is easy to woo in little soundbites and they start to not believe the one side when they say the other is lying. I trust Obama's campaign to have a plan. But Romney will simply make up facts to paint a picture of Obama that fits the spending democrat they want to define him as and the public is uneasy on the economy so Obama doesn't have alot of goodwill to build on there.

[brooklynite]

5. Unrec

A 1% swing in a poll like this require a difference in -8- respondents. And in that setting, polling results showing Romney ahead by -1- point is essentially noise generated by who ended up answering the phone when the poller called. If the poll had come out 47-46 in Obama's favor, do you think you would have been venting about a media conspiracy?

[Ashleyshubby]

8. Irrelevant. I didn't compare the poll to itself

I compared it to other pollsters. You raise a strawman. Wrong thread.

[TroyD]

6. Rasmussen has Obama ahead (+3) today

Monday, August 27, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows President Obama attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 44% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

This is the president’s biggest lead since May. His 47% level of support matches his best since March.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Proud Liberal Dem]

7. +1

I was going to post this myself- though I'm not sold on the accuracy of Rasmussen either. Whenever one poll seems to have Obama down, Romney up, there's others that show a different result. Taken as a whole, the polls indicate a relatively close race but show President Obama with a pretty consistent lead over Romney. I think that the debates and GOTV are going to be what determines this race. I personally believe that President Obama will ultimately prevail. Romney/Ryan may be able to bleed some votes off of Obama/Biden but not enough to fatally wound them. I can't see anything that Romney/Ryan might do that would enable them to gain a significant amount of momentum to shift the outcome of the race. Romney can't really talk about his *strengths* because they're all compromised in some way, Ryan can't talk about his Medicare-killing budget because it will threaten their support among the elderly, and neither one of them have any real policy ideas that they care to discuss outside of their "quiet room", so, in the end, what have they got other than cheating/suppression in the swing states? There's a definite risk that Romney/Ryan could win but if they do, it will be more of a Bush 2004 "win" than an Obama 2008 one IMHO.