2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumQuinnipiac: Obama +7 in CONNECTICUT, McMahon +3
August 28, 2012
What do you make of these Connecticut numbers? There should be a wider gap than that, and I'm also surprised to see McMahon in the lead. I didn't think we would have to worry about this Senate race.
Hopefully regular voting patterns will re-assert themselves by Election Day. Anyone here involved with the Connecticut campaign? Is it competitive on the ground there?
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=1790
PRESIDENT - Obama +7
OBAMA = 52
ROMNEY = 45
----
SENATE - McMahon +3
MCMAHON = 49
MURPHY = 46
CBHagman
(16,968 posts)I haven't been following this and hadn't thought to.
Still, it's within the margin of error...
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)I think CT is becoming to NY city what NH has become to Boston. Both states are essentially suburbs to larger, liberal cities.
They are overwhelming white and largely middle and upper middle class.
The "Archie Bunker" prototype mindset who is upset about Boston or NY city moves to NH and CT.
Then in CT you have the added issue where the median income is among the highest in the nation. On a per capita basis, more of the 1% may live in CT than anywhere else in the country. Therefore Romney might have added appeal. Lets be honest, those are his people. Romney probably feels more at home in a rich, white, wealthy CT suburb than he does anywhere else on the planet.
Except maybe the Cayman Islands.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)New York City's suburb. In fact, most of us hate that because Fairfield County is about the only place in CT that relates to NYC in any way. The rest of Connecticut has it's own identity. I live in Litchfield County and it is much more rural. CT has lots of suburbs, lots of rural areas (like Goshen) and some big poor cities like Bridgeport, Waterbury, Hartford. The mostly rich people in CT live near NYC like Westport and Greenwich. Lots of commuters. The wealth of those areas leads people to believe CT is very wealthy but it is not. A lot of Connecticut is working class, like the town I live in now (Terryville). Connecticut is also very socially liberal. Linda McMahon would not be able to run as a Repub in many other parts of the country. Most politicians here are all pro-choice. Gay marriage is legal. Religion is nobody's business here. There are no Archie Bunker types here. He would find life here way too fast paced, as many southern transplants have told me. I have also been to NH many times. NH is way more rural. The only argument people in CT have regarding NYC and Boston is about their baseball teams. Kind of split down the middle here.
Linda McMahon is well known and has tons of money, millions of dollars. Chris Murphy was the 5th district Rep for Congress and my Rep as I live in the 5th district. He beat Nancy Johnson to get his seat and she was once very popular and had tons of money too. I am not too worried about Chris doing well once people get to know him better.
Obama was beating Romney 50 - 38 in June per Quinnipiac. I don't think Romney can win here though we know him well as he was the Gov. of Mass.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)for the president to go from a 22-point victory just four years ago to a 7-point lead now. He'll carry the state but it's one of the reason why national polls are so close these days. Obama is doing pretty well in swing states but in some blue states he is struggling compared to 2008. Massachusetts is another example. He won there 62-37 and he's still going to win it but latest poll gives him a 14-point lead there (53-39). It's a bit disappointing, but there is time for those numbers to improve.
The Senate race being a 'toss up' with a slight McMahon lead is baffling. I would think that CT voters would realize by now what a nut she is.
And I can't discount this pollster. Generally I would say Quinnipiac is very good and they have polled Connecticut for years.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)The economy has hurt Obama, even in blue areas. But I think CT is still too socially liberal a state to go for a Repub President. I think it does hurt that Romney is very well known here because he was in Mass for a few years.
Murphy is not as well known as McMahon though he has been a very popular Rep. She has lots and lots of money and everyone knows who she is from WWE and because she ran for the Senate two years ago. But things were worse for the Dems in 2010 and Blumenthal still beat her by 12 points. I think it is a tied race right now.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)I think if Obama can win by 10-12 points he will help Murphy over the finish line.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)If you reelect Obama but elect a Republican congress Obama won't be able to do anything but right Is possable by executive orders
and veto the far right proposals assuming Democrats don't fillerbuster them.
There Is no difference among republicans anymore.All of them will vote like Akin,Ryan,and teabaggers In Congress.
Hawaii Hiker
(3,165 posts)He's still consistently over 50%....I think Kerry got 54% there...I'm not worried about the presidential race in CT...If NY was closer i'd be worried, but Obama is over 60% in NY..
Larkspur
(12,804 posts)Gov. Malloy, a Democrat, is at 41% approval rating, and he hasn't been over 50% since he was elected. He's been as low as 33% recently.
Obama should cut a simple ad with Sen. Blumenthal, who is very popular over the entire state of CT. That would help him shore up CT.
treestar
(82,383 posts)To be replaced with a real D? That would be great. Doesn't matter whether Obama wins by a landslide or by +7. CT should blame itself if it thinks health care reform did not go far enough. Thanks Lieberdouche.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)Blumenthal won that seat by 12 points against Linda McMahon but he was very well known and well liked.
treestar
(82,383 posts)So McMahon winning is 2 Ds from CT. Just like my state's 2 D Senators!
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)Chris Murphy is running against her and is the Dem. She is more the moderate style Repub (as most Repubs in New England usually are) but she still is a Repub. Chris Murphy was my Representative in Congress and is a really good guy. But he is younger and has a lot less money then Linda McMahon does. If Murphy won, we would have two actual Dem Senators as Lieberman was not really ever a Dem in my mind.
I'm assuming the DSCC will send Murphy money if he needs it? The Democrats need this Seat to maintain a Majority.