Is this election really going to be close in November?

[Cary]

I just have a hard time believing that people would be stupid enough to put Republicans in power.

[monmouth]

1. I can only offer my gut feeling to your question...Obama wins in a landslide...n/t

[onehandle]

2. Yes. I believe the President will pull it off, but I don't expect to know on election night.

This one is going to be ten times more litigious than 2000.

[Iggy]

3. How Long Have You Been Observing

politics in our nation? well over 40 years for me.

first of all, it's not about intelligence. Democratic voters frequently elect asshats, too.

one of the reasons this election is close is because of our CRAPPY economy.. if we had an economy as we
did with Clinton in 1996, Obama would handily win.

it's very rare for an incumbent POTUS to win reelection with UNemployment above 7.2% (I believe that is the
cut off point). grandpa reagan was able to do it.. and FDR.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

7. I would like think (or hope)

that people would need to LIKE the challenger enough to want to elect them. Otherwise, IMHO it's more likely that people will ultimately choose the person they know and trust- and most people believe that Obama has their best interests at heart. Only the wealthy are likely to disagree. People would be stupid to re-elect President Obama and also elect a Republican Congress. Whoever gets elected President needs to have some "honest brokers" to work with in Congress IMHO. Otherwise, we should expect to settle in for another 2-4 years of gridlock.

[Iggy]

37. NO, My Friend

we must learn to leave emotion out of this-- our system has become a game. a game that is mostly
about money. when you're playing that game-- emotion, "feelings", are irrelevant.

it's not about "liking" the candidate. The GOP could put Bozo the Clown up against Obama, and their voters
and most of the talking bobblehead pundits out there would take him very seriously.

I thought it impossible for the GOP to find a worse candidate than GW Bush, but that is exactly what
they have done with Rmoney.

not only does the guy have zero personality, zero empathy, he's a member of an obviously phony "church".

[abumbyanyothername]

49. Romney may be worse than Bush but . . .

What were the other choices?

Bachman?

Perry?

Cain?

Santorum?

I guess we have to go with Mitt.

Unless we talk about Ron Paul. Who has some serious deficiencies on the domestic front, but a foreign policy that I could love.

[Iggy]

50. That's It, Right?

a glaring lack of choices for the GOP... has to be frustrating for them.

[Cary]

59. Maybe, but

there is such a thing as the law of diminishing returns and there's no reason to believe that it doesn't work with political advertising. And we have David Plough and David Axelrod. Don't count us out yet.

[ELI BOY 1950]

4. Close election???

I'm with you, but the two things that scare me is 1) the money they have to spend 2) the stupidity of the american people (never thought Bush would have one a second term).

If we are even by next week at this time...we will be in good shape...the bump they have gotten from the VP
pick and the convention will have passed.

honestly, Romney is not that smart...he bought his way through life. The debates will seal it for us.

[Liberal Veteran]

5. I tell people to hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

And, yes, they let me get away with it.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

6. I'd like to think not (and that President Obama is a shoo-in)

given the voter suppression efforts afoot, as well as all of the money being thrown into the race on behalf of Republicans, and the continued stagnation of the economy, I'm.............concerned. I think that the debates will "seal the deal" one way or another.

[leveymg]

8. As much as some want a make-believe "horse race", no.

[RedSpartan]

9. The popular vote will be close. The electoral vote will not. Obama 300+.

[JoePhilly]

53. That's my view as well ... can't see how Romney wins enough of the battlegrounds states.

[NRaleighLiberal]

10. Gut feeling is Obama takes Electoral College easily. MSM cries buckets.

[Dawgs]

11. Won't be close at all. Romney is currently behind in every state (WI, MI, OH, FL, VA, CO) he needs.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

And, outside of Florida, he's been ahead in those states for many months.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ugW

[JohnnyRingo]

12. There are three groups that don't want a landslide in November....

1: The Republicans, for obvious reasons.
2: The Democrats, because a projected landslide will cause voters to stay home.
3: The media because no one will tune in when they already know the outcome.

In short, everyone will tell us it's a horse race that could go either way.

[davidpdx]

67. On #2 down ticket races would be hurt if D people thought the presidential race was a landside

Even in states where Obama may not win, we may have a chance at a House or Senate seat or a state or local race.

[RC]

13. It will be close, only because of the wholesale election frauds the Republicans have put and are

putting in place. They own most of the election machinery, have operatives in critical places to help ensure the "proper" vote count, wrongfully purged voter rolls, and on and on and on...

[dmosh42]

22. I have the same gut feeling about this. Well said!

[HopeHoops]

14. No. Obama's already won it.

[WI_DEM]

15. Yes. I think so. It's the economy...

and people take the blame out on which party is in power. That is why it's as close as it is in most polls. If the economy were healthy Obama would be looking at a 20-point lead.

[Amonester]

57. The economy *would* be better enough if the tealibans wouldn't have blocked everything Obama

asked them to vote for to create jobs (which would have had a ripple effect to create more jobs by small businesses in the follow up).

Let's hope the Dems convention will HAMMER that truth over and over for 4 days next week.

[awoke_in_2003]

16. You have more faith...

in your fellow Americans than I.

[Cary]

25. I wish. n/t

[GallopingGhost]

17. I agree; The ONLY reason

it may be close is the economy. If the economy were flourishing, it would already be over.

Obama was handed a bloody mess, and after eight years of Texas disaster, people were looking for a hero. Obama has been that in many ways, but there is simply no way he could fix everything in four years, especially not with the Repubs fighting him at every turn. They don't give a damn about the country; they are just fixated on their hatred for Obama.

So, my opinion? Obama win, but we can't rest, GOTV!!

[cheezmaka]

64. I'm with you on that one...

Well said. I believe Obama will win but it won't be by a landslide. I just want him to win...whether it be by 271 or 300+

[morningfog]

18. Not even as close as 2008.

[gkhouston]

19. I'm confident the President will be re-elected. It's the House and Senate I'm less sure of. n/t

[Lex]

20. Well, put it this way, did you think people were stupid enough to RE-elect George W. Bush?

I didn't.

[Cary]

23. I intentionally left my post vague

I expected you all to put some meat on the bones like you just did here. Suffice it to say that you and I are on the same page, and that generally I agree with everyone so far.

I'm still not sure what to make of it which is why I was vague. I don't know what to make of 2004, except to say that the man had screwed things up so badly that people turned around and said "fix it." I'm not sure John Kerry made the case either. Clearly his is not the model for opposing Swiftboat Liars.

And the only think I can make of 2010 is the economy and the fact that it was low turnout midterm election. I was taken aback by some of the alleged liberals' anti-Obama rhetoric and I'm pretty sure that this played a part in a bad outcome.

I believe that if Democrats turn out, we win and I believe this will be more true as the demographics continue to trend in our favor (assuming the Republicans can't escape their self imposed ideological straightjacket). If we turn out they can't steal the election, although I'm not sure of that.

And what if they do steal the election? What then?

[qwlauren35]

47. I learned a lot about my fellow Americans that night.

I did NOT expect Bush to get re-elected. But then, I was not sure that Obama would get elected, even though everyone said it would happen. I'm still surprised that he got elected, but I'm not surprised that the Tea Party emerged as a result.

In the black community, we're just happy that no one's managed to assassinate him.

[Blue Belle]

21. Like everyone else, I'm expecting an Obama win...

but unless we win back the House and keep the Senate, We are just going to see more of the same obstruction that keeps us from making progress.

[Cary]

24. Three words:

Supreme Court appointments.

[RedSpartan]

46. ^^^ This ^^^

Perhaps the most important, long lasting reason Obama must be re-elected.

[valerief]

26. I guess if you factor in voter suppression and election fraud, it might

be close.

If we had a free media and a legitimate election process, I don't think Rmoney or any other rethug would have a Communist Chinaman's chance in Hell of winning.

[gateley]

27. I don't underestimate the stupidity or the racism. I'm far from confident. :-(

[deutsey]

28. I also don't underestimate Rove, voter suppression, tons of corporate money

and the corporate-owned media.

[gateley]

31. Yep.

[Cary]

35. Agreed. n/t

[flpoljunkie]

29. Voter suppression in form of Voter ID laws may work for the Republicans.

It's certainly their plan.

[Poll_Blind]

30. I don't think so. I hope not, but I was watching C-Span and Romney's campaign...

...advisor was on there talking to Republicans and team Romney has no illusions about where they stand. According to them, they're up in a lot of areas (like economy) but people really don't like Romney. As in, his own campaign manager was saying they have a 30 point deficit against Obama on likability. So they're ooshing around, trying to push a "You don't have to like him to vote for him" and some other weasely ways to try to make inroads.

I don't think it's going to work. 2012, just like 2010 was the Democrats' race to lose. The President is definitely not doing a 50-state strategy and I don't know if that's wise. So there could be more play there than it might seem. Then again, the Democratic convention still is yet to happen and I'm assuming things are going to go into nuclear overdrive from that point forward.

PB

[gateley]

32. I heard one guy (maybe the same?) who worked w/Bush, too. He was pretty sane and

objective, but my blood ran cold when he said he thought the R's might take the Senate (as well as keeping the House). C-Span guy asked why, and he basically said just look what seats are going to be open.

[Cary]

36. 2010 was the Republicans' race to lose

Low turnout in midterms favors the party not in the White House. Almost invariably sitting presidents' parties lose midterms and the economy also played against incumbents.

[frazzled]

33. Did anyone watch Charlie Rose last night?

I usually turn it on at 11 pm as I'm falling asleep, and last night was his panel of usual suspects to discuss the 2012 presidential race. As my eyes were fluttering asleep, I heard each member of the panel--even the dreaded shill Mark Halperin--express their opinion that there was next to NO electoral path available to Romney to achieve the presidency, short of some kind of implosion by Obama or miracle on his part (like not just giving the best speech he's ever made at the convention, but the best speech that ANYONE has ever made in history).

As I drifted off to sleep, it made me feel better.

[steve2470]

34. The unemployment rate gives me pause

People tend to vote their wallets/checkbooks. We all understand the non-stop obstructionism the Republicans have thrown up, but most of the voters do not.

I don't see a landslide. A win, yes, but not a landslide.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

38. Rachel Maddow, Melissa Harris Perry and a host of other commentators, including Republican Mike

Steele have all said that people have already positioned their minds on the economy. Even if the unemployment number went down to 7%, those who were going to vote for Romney will still for him and those who were set on voting for Obama will still vote for him. This time around, there is only a very small percentage of Undecideds. That's why Romney isn't even bothering to appeal to the so-called "middle." It's now all about the "ground game," and Mittens is all about exploiting racial hatred and fear to get there. The Republicans are hoping that race will peal off some white Democrats (Reagan Democrats) and that voter suppression will make it a closer race. If they played fair, this election wouldn't be close at all.

[Jamaal510]

39. The popular vote may be close,

but Obama should take the electoral college hands down at the rate that this election has been going. Robme has never led in any battleground states outside of NC, CO, and FL, and I think now he's even losing the latter 2 states.

I hope it's a landslide not only to keep them from rigging the election, but to burst the ego of the Republican party. For the last few years, they've tried to paint it as if Obama is a failure, and people who voted for him are idiots, and that the economy suddenly got bad in January 2009. But once he wins, that'll make their circus tent (along with Congress Republicans' plans of making him a 1-term president) come crashing down. I want to see Obama run up the score on Robme enough for the G0P to realize exactly how out of touch their party is, and how much their policies suck. And a Democratic House and Senate would be like icing on the cake.

[MrSlayer]

40. Really? After the Bagger landslide in 2010?

This country is very stupid.

It shouldn't be close but it will be. Close enough for ID laws, purging and Diebold to steal.

[Cary]

44. If you look at the bagger landslide I think you chalk it up to low turnout midterms

I certainly don't think you had a bagger mandate.

Just because the country is very stupid, if that is a fact, doesn't mean I have to want to believe it. Obviously I am cognizant of the possibility. I do believe I said I am reluctant to go there.

I'm certainly not going to argue with you about it. As Mencken said, no one ever went broke under-estimating the intelligence of the American people.

[Zoeisright]

58. Exactly.

[boxman15]

41. Kind of.

I'd be shocked if Obama gets more than 52% of the vote, but in the EC, it could be a very comfortable victory for him.

[polichick]

42. Without suppression it probably wouldn't be close...

With it, we might be looking at another SC intervention - which might explain the recent decision on the healthcare bill.

[Ira]

43. The way the GOP convention is going,

I doubt Romney will get a bounce in the polls. And if the recent CNN poll showing seniors are starting to lean Obama in Florida has legs due to the fear generated by Medicare vouchers, then Romney loses Florida and goes down in flames in the electoral college.

[TroyD]

45. Nate Silver says he doesn't expect either Obama or Romney to get a big bounce

Silver is predicting around a 4-point bounce for Romney, if that.

He says this is not a year where we've seen wild swings where someone is up 15 points and then down 20 points etc.

The polls have been pretty consistent so far.

Here's his latest discussion.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

http://t.co/vGTdMEH7

http://t.co/nE9WbdWY

[Doctor Jack]

48. I Doubt It

The polls were really close at this point in 2008 and look what ended up happening. In Mid-Late August of 2008, obama was up by about 1 point, on average and about 3 points through out the summer. It wasn't until late september that he finally pulled ahead. No one pays attention this early, so polls are usually meaningless. However, look at the averages and see that Romney has only been ahead for a few days all year. That isn't a good sign. He has to make up a lot of ground if he even wants to come close to winning in November.

[DrDan]

51. this is what loses elections - voters stay at home, quit contributing, quit working

[still_one]

52. I believe it will be close. The country has turned right for sometime now, even though the

republicans have had a war against the middle class, women, and minorities for some time now, and many of those same people either don't vote or vote against their own interest

[COLGATE4]

54. Nobody ever said it better than

the great H.L. Mencken, who opined that "no one ever went broke overestimating the stupidity of the American public". True then, still true today.

[Grammy23]

55. If things were fair and not corrupted, no

Obama would win handily. But we're not dealing with a fair system, nor one that has not been corrupted with voter suppression and the ability to finagle the outcome with computer tallies that are flipped. And I guess I shouldn't leave out the fact that people are willing to vote AGAINST their best interests when distracted by racism, lies and half truths.

I'm counting on the President and his campaign to get out the word on what he has accomplished and what he intends to do in the next term. Romney has offered very little specifics on what HE and Ryan plan for us. The little bit they have revealed should scare the bejeebers out of anyone in the middle class or poor people or elderly people. In other words, a bunch of us have a target on our backs if Romney/Ryan get elected.

The news coming from the Electoral College projections should give us all hope......but we can't relax and sit back based on this alone. We need to make sure this election is fair and not stolen.

[bigwillq]

56. Yes

I feel it will be close.

[johnnyrocket]

60. It will have to tip. There's not as many partisans as you might think, they're the loudest now..

...but eventually Americans as a whole will come to the conclusion that this GOP crowd is a mess.

[Motown_Johnny]

61. I expect a close popular vote but an Electoral win of around 60 EV.

Way down from the last win of around 190 EV.


So define close and I can answer your question.

[AlinPA]

62. Too close. Think about our several hundred million against their 10's of billions. I think a billion

is 1000 millions. They can buy every minute of TV and radio time, and flood the post office and newspapers with ads with those billions.

[davidn3600]

63. You have to assume that it will be

You cannot afford to relax until it's over.

Romney has a ton of money. Obama's approval rating is not that fantastic. And people are hurting financially. Most of the polls in the swing states are within the margin of error.

It might not appear like it will be close, but all it takes is a few of these swing states to flip and you got a race.

[ailsagirl]

65. I do, too. But I'm very, very cautious because the repukes have a lot of money & power

And who knows what's going on "behind the scenes?"

But, you're right, anyone who votes for the repuke ticket has got to be certifiable. Seriously.

[struggle4progress]

66. Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public. -- HL Mencken

[Rosco T.]

68. Remember the sage words of Capt. Solo....

"don't get cocky kid"

(yes, I'll repeat it everywhere it's needed to be heard )

[pstokely]

69. Possibly in the popular vote

But I doubt it will be close in the electoral vote, Obama will win more states that he needs