economic level and found to be much more reliable than opinion polls. The fundamental reason for that is that they are putting money behind their perception and not just giving a flippant opinion to a pollster.
You can learn about it here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
You can read about predictive markets here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
Prediction markets are championed in James Surowiecki's 2004 book The Wisdom of Crowds, Cass Sunstein's 2006 Infotopia, and How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business by Douglas Hubbard.[3]
The research literature is collected together in the peer reviewed The Journal of Prediction Markets, edited by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by the University of Buckingham Press. The journal was first published in 2007, and is available online and in print.[4]
In John Brunner's 1975 science fiction story The Shockwave Rider there is a description of a prediction market that he called the Delphi Pool.
In October 2007 companies from the United States, Ireland, Austria, Germany, and Denmark formed the Prediction Market Industry Association,[5] tasked with promoting awareness, education, and validation for prediction markets.
. . .
However, Steven Gjerstad (Purdue) in his paper "Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium,"[7] has shown that prediction market prices are very close to the mean belief of market participants if the agents are risk averse and the distribution of beliefs is spread out (as with a normal distribution, for example). Justin Wolfers (Wharton) and Eric Zitzewitz (Dartmouth) have obtained similar results, and also include some analysis of prediction market data, in their paper "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities."[8] In practice, the prices of binary prediction markets have proven to be closely related to actual frequencies of events in the real world.[9][10]
Now you didn't hit a nerve but your comment upthread
17. Intrade is filled with republicans And they are always wrong
It is the kind of juvenile remark that you will find gets taken apart here. You didn't strike a nerve because there wasn't enough substance in your comment or your analysis to be taken seriously. You will find that you are entitled to your opinion at DU but if you start throwing out childishly inaccurate facts like "they are filled with Republicans" or that they "are always wrong", you will, more often than not find somebody who knows more about it than you and challenge any loosely offered data that is clearly not true. Next time you want to make a statement in an absolute fashion, like "they are always wrong" you better have some links to back up what you are talking about or be prepared to be taken apart.
BTW Intrade currently has the President at 56%
http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/. After the Democratic convention expect it to go back to 58. If you think that they are 'always wrong' then empty your savings buy Romney and make a bundle.
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