WSJ Poll: Bernie Sanders Won Debate

[demwing]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/wsj-survey-44-of-democrats-think-bernie-sanders-won-debate-1447609672

The survey, conducted for The Wall Street Journal by Google Consumer Surveys, polled 836 Democratic primary voters by displaying questions to people who visit a set of online news and entertainment websites. The Internet users were asked to answer the questions in exchange for access to those sites.

Democratic primary voters who answered the questions said that, based on the debate, Mr. Sanders was the candidate who could best handle the job of president and was best suited to improving the economy.

A substantial 58% judged Mr. Sanders as the candidate “who best understands the problems facing people like you,’’ compared with 27% who chose Mrs. Clinton and 4% who named Mr. O’Malley.

<snip>

The margin of error in the survey varied for each question but in all cases was below plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. In conducting the poll, Google Consumer Surveys infers a respondent’s gender, age, and geographic location based on anonymous browsing history and other data. On mobile devices, people answer questions in exchange for credits for books, music, and apps, and answer demographic questions when first downloading the app.

But what is this "Google Consumer Surveys" you ask?

Only the 2nd most accurate pollsters of the 2014 election, according to Nate Silver:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0

UPDATE: More from Nate Silver on ONLINE POLLS in 2014:

Among the nine polling firms that conducted their polls wholly or partially online, the average error in calling the election result was 2.1 percentage points. That compares with a 3.5-point error for polling firms that used live telephone interviewers, and 5.0 points for “robopolls” that conducted their surveys by automated script. The traditional telephone polls had a slight Republican bias on the whole, while the robopolls often had a significant Republican bias. (Even the automated polling firm Public Policy Polling, which often polls for liberal and Democratic clients, projected results that were slightly more favorable for Mr. Romney than what he actually achieved.) The online polls had little overall bias, however.

<snip>

Perhaps it won’t be long before Google, not Gallup, is the most trusted name in polling.

[99th_Monkey]

1. Clearly the Wall St. Journal is "in the tank" for Bernie. Wait? What? The Wall St. Journal???

This really is hella-awesome news.

GO BERNIE!!!!

[SusanCalvin]

2. WSJ + Bernie?

You're scaring me!

[MohRokTah]

3. Where is the link to the poll?

Please provide the link. What you have provided is worthless without a direct link.

[Wilms]

4. Here's the link to the WSJ article:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/wsj-survey-44-of-democrats-think-bernie-sanders-won-debate-1447609672

[demwing]

10. thanks

updated the OP!

[SharonClark]

5. It's an online poll

Enough said.

[MohRokTah]

6. Yep, you were polled to gain access to certain web sites.

Nothing at all scientific about that polling methodology. It can give some broader indications, though, which is how the WSJ presented the results. There was no specific winner or loser, rather winners in various categories.

For example, Hillary wins when considering who is best equipped to handle terrorist threats according to this poll. Sanders wins as the person who best understands the respondent's problems.

[kristopher]

39. You're wrong about the quality of this polling. As the OP noted...

And this information confirms:

The emergence and evolution of online polling has left in its wake a sense of disdain by many informed people for polls emerging from that platform.
While that feeling is a legitimate response to the traditional internet polling conducted alongside some local news clickbait piece of sensationalistic 'journalism', there has emerged serious methods that deserve serious consideration as we move forward.
We've seen a fair amount of this polling already this primary season and we will undoubtedly be seeing a tremendous amount in the months ahead. This information is provided to help DUers place the results of that polling in its context. You might want to bookmark this for dealing with the inevitable disagreements about validity.

From Google:

Comparing Google Consumer Surveys to Existing Probability and Non-Probability Based Internet Surveys
Paul McDonald, Matt Mohebbi, Brett Slatkin Google Inc.
Abstract
This study compares the responses of a probability based Internet panel, a non-probability based Internet panel and Google Consumer Surveys against several media consumption and health benchmarks. The Consumer Surveys results were found to be more accurate than both the probability and non-probability based Internet panels in three separate measures: average absolute error (distance from the benchmark), largest absolute error, and percent of responses within 3.5 percentage points of the benchmark. These results suggest that despite differences in survey methodology, Consumer Surveys can be used in place of more traditional Internet based panels without sacrificing accuracy.
http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/static/consumer_surveys_whitepaper.pdf

From Pew Research Center:

A Comparison of Results from Surveys by the Pew Research Center and Google Consumer Surveys
NOVEMBER 7, 2012
<snip>
Pew Research and Google Comparisons

From May to October, 2012, the Pew Research Center compared results for more than 40 questions asked in dual frame telephone surveys to those obtained using Google Consumer Surveys. Questions across a variety of subject areas were tested, including: demographic characteristics, technology use, political attitudes and behavior, domestic and foreign policy and civic engagement. Across these various types of questions, the median difference between 43 results obtained from Pew Research surveys and using Google Consumer Surveys was 3 percentage points. The mean difference was 6 points, which was a result of several sizeable differences that ranged from 10-21 points and served to increase the mean difference.

Differences between the Pew Research surveys and Google results occur for a number of reasons. Given that Google Consumer Surveys does not use a true probability sampling method, and its sampling frame is not of the general public, differences in the composition of the sample are potentially of greatest concern. A comparison of several demographic questions asked by Pew Research indicates that the Google Consumer Surveys sample appears to conform closely to the demographic composition of the overall internet population. Communication device ownership and internet use also aligns well for most, though not all, questions. In addition, there is little evidence so far that the Google Consumer Surveys sample is biased toward heavy internet users.

Some of the differences between results obtained from the two methodologies can be attributed to variations in how the questions were structured and administered. During the evaluation period, we typically tried to match the question wording and format. However, some exceptions had to be made since many of the questions were part of longstanding Pew Research trends and had to be modified to fit within the Google Consumer Surveys limits and the different mode of administration (online self-administered vs. interview-administered by telephone).

The context in which questions are asked could also explain some of the differences; questions in Pew Research surveys are asked as part of a larger survey in which earlier questions may influence those asked later in the survey. By contrast, only one or two questions are administered at a time to the same respondents in the Google Consumer Surveys method.

The Google Consumer Surveys method is a work in progress and the Pew Research Center’s evaluation began shortly after its inception and continued for six months. The testing is ongoing, and we will continue to evaluate their methodology.
<snip>
http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/07/a-comparison-of-results-from-surveys-by-the-pew-research-center-and-google-consumer-surveys/

List of some recent Google research on their survey methods and analysis.
http://research.google.com/pubs/MarioCallegaro.html

[MohRokTah]

40. No, I'm not

Consumer surveys are not the same as political polls.

[kristopher]

42. Yes, you are.

[litlbilly]

7. mmmm, member since yesterday. wonder who paid you

[SusanCalvin]

12. Not yesterday. September 26th 2015.

I don't normally called out low-count posters (we all were once), but this post does seem kinda knee-jerk.

[marble falls]

15. At 183 posts - pot meet kettle.

[artislife]

24. Pot: Member since 2012.

Not a chatty member, but posts when needs to.

[Scootaloo]

19. Who the hell would pay for a product like that?

[demwing]

8. NOt according to Nate Silver

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0

Instead, some of the most accurate firms were those that conducted their polls online.

The final poll conducted by Google Consumer Surveys had Mr. Obama ahead in the national popular vote by 2.3 percentage points – very close to his actual margin, which was 2.6 percentage points based on ballots counted through Saturday morning.

[DCBob]

9. I believe this is the same poll that had Bernie winning last time.

Seems like flawed methodology.

[reformist2]

14. There's no reason to automatically favor landline polls over internet polls.

Depending on the methodology used, you can get good (or bad) results from either kind of poll. And by "good" or "bad", I mean numbers that hold up on election day...

[DCBob]

18. The big polling firms don't use landlines exclusively.

Its usually a mix to make it more representative. Online polls are inherently biased.

[artislife]

25. In favor of people who get the internet. I see.

[madokie]

37. When I'm polled by land line

I almost always give bullshit answers
Most times the polls are push polls so I figure whats good for the goose is good for the gander

[artislife]

41. Heh! nt

[jeff47]

48. Depends on the poll.

Read the methodology. Often "the big polling firms" are landline only. Or even robopoll.

Meanwhile, there's more than one "online poll". Some are scientific, some are not.

[Jarqui]

11. Here's a link to the article

http://www.wsj.com/articles/wsj-survey-44-of-democrats-think-bernie-sanders-won-debate-1447609672

That Google company came out for Bernie last time.
http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=tr2mq4bvlrnf4&question=2&filter=&rw=1
kind of like PPP this time having way too few under 45, they seemed to err the last time on having too many under 45 (but not as skewed as PPP)

[demwing]

20. you call it an error - I call it a correction in bias /nt

[Jarqui]

23. Something that explains some of the discrepancies I've seen ...

[demwing]

43. what you saw was not a discrepancy

it's just the new normal.

[moobu2]

13. online polls.

[reformist2]

16. Two words. No reasoning. So wow.

[RandySF]

17. Cute

[paleotn]

28. Content?

...or do you just out of hand dismiss that which doesn't affirm your preconceived notions? If true, that explains a lot.

[randys1]

51. In WSJ best interest if the Socialist is the nominee. That much I am certain of, or at least

that they think that.

Now I know he is a Democratic Socialist like I am, but that isnt what they will say.

[hedda_foil]

21. Wow! Can't read the article behind the pay wall. Did the respondents watch the debate?

If so, that's even better.

[Jarqui]

22. Yes.

Last time, they asked about 6,000 people until they found about 1,000 who claimed they had watched the debate

[Dont call me Shirley]

26. Bernie won the first debate also, despite the msm's delusions.

[winter is coming]

44. No. I'm sure all the donations he got immediately after the debate were pity cash.

[Dont call me Shirley]

49. ...

[Demeter]

27. When WSJ admits it, Bernie is really winning!

I may be able to sleep well, tonight.

[marym625]

29. of course he won

Just like he won the first debate. Though Clinton was abysmal in the second debate.

[demwing]

30. It's nice to see it acknowledged in the MSM

Especially by the WSJ

[marym625]

32. Yes, it sure is!

#Bernie2016
#FeelTheBern

[Jack Rabbit]

31. Gallup hasn't been a trustworthy poll in at least a decade.

[cantbeserious]

33. Good News - As We All Know - The Truth

eom

[Cheese Sandwich]

34. Thanks for some good news

We can always use some

[demwing]

50. Don't let 'em get you down!

[George II]

35. Of course, the WSJ and the rest of the rightwing want to see Sanders win - they're terrified of...

...Hillary Clinton and know she'd destroy whatever clown they come up with as their nominee.

[zeemike]

36. That is the exact opposite of what are the facts.

The GOP's best chance is with Clinton because all Republicans and many independents will vote against her in mass.

There is two things that will bring people to the polls, someone to vote for or someone to vote against...if the GOP has no one to vote for they will have someone to vote against with Hillary.

[jwirr]

38. They asked the right questions. Who can best understand

the problems and handle them for people like us. That easily describes how I feel about Bernie. I usually ignore polls but this one hits the feelings.

[Segami]

45. K&R

[Betty Karlson]

46. K&R. eom

[kristopher]

47. Bernie Was 100% on point. nt

[demwing]

53. I'm honored that your first post

Was in response to this thread. Welcome to DU!

(Yeah, I know we disagree, but fuck it )

[Snotcicles]

54. lol. curious. nt

[demwing]

55. Hey, I'm in a good mood tonight

After watching Bernie's speech. I can afford a little socialist civility

[Snotcicles]

56. Hey now, don't get to carried away.

They can be sly buggers.

[demwing]

57. Sad thing is you're right

And it's likely that this new sly bugger will be on my iggy list all too soon.

But for tonight, he/she is just a prole like you and me.

[Snotcicles]

58. It's hard get irritated on a day like today. Go Bernie. nt