2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAngry Dragon
(36,693 posts)The current Moodys Analytics baseline forecast is for payroll employment to increase by 12 million jobs from the start of 2013 to the end of 2016 (134 million to 146).
_Liann_
(377 posts)AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)This sounds like a pretty bold statement, especially considering that only two presidentsRonald Reagan and Bill Clintoncreated more than 12 million jobs. Romney, in fact, says he can reach this same goal, in just four years, though the policy paper issued by his campaign contains few details. It is mostly a collection of policy assertions, such as such as reducing debt, overhauling the tax code, fostering free trade and so forth.
But, in fact, the number is less impressive than it sounds. This pledge amounts to an average of 250,000 jobs a month, a far cry from the 500,000 jobs a month that Romney claimed would be created in a normal recovery. In recent months, the economy has averaged about 150,000 jobs a month.
The Congressional Budget Office is required to consider the effects of the so-called fiscal cliff if a year-end budget deal is not reached, which many experts believe would push the country into a recession. But even with that caveat, the nonpartisan agency assumes 9.6 million jobs will be created in the next four years. (This is a revision downward; CBO had estimated 11 million in January.)
But Moodys Analytics, in an August forecast, predicts 12 million jobs will be created by 2016, no matter who is president. And Macroeconomic Advisors in April also predicted a gain of 12.3 million jobs. In other words, this is a fairly safe bet by Romney, even if he has a somewhat fuzzy plan for action. We have often noted that presidents are often at the mercyor the beneficiaryof broad economic trends, and Romneys pledge appears to be an effort to take advantage of that.
SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)This guy must be smokin something good. First of all, what Hypocrites!!! Earlier that evening, they admitted the president does not create jobs, yet this yahoo lies again saying he can can create 12M in 4 years. That's 250K jobs a month, as previously stated. No one, and I mean no one, has ever created that many jobs in a 4 year period. And he's going to do this in a terrible economy? OMG (shaking my head) This idiot has sent tens of thousands of jobs overseas due to his "business experience". How does he plan on getting them back. Government jobs? Nope, he supports cutting government jobs. Secondly, he obviously supports wars (the second highest cost of our debt). He threatened Iran, Syria and Russia? What the hell is he thinking? That's just what we need is to get into another war.
If this clown gets in the white house, believe me, we are only seeing the beginning of a recession. He will takes us all down in a way that will make the 30's depression look like a cakewalk. My overall view of his speech was that it was a good speech, but then anyone running for president should present a good speech. Can you imagine what it would have been like if Perry was up there? However it was filled with fluff, lies, no facts. He wants to do a lot, and nothing to back it up. I hope more people saw right through it as I did.
What a pretty little clown.