Obama’s Odds of Reelection Increase After Romney’s Acceptance Speech

[babylonsister]

http://www.politicususa.com/obamas-odds-reelection-increase-romneys-acceptance-speech.html


Obama’s Odds of Reelection Increase After Romney’s Acceptance Speech

By: Jason Easley
August 31st, 2012


How bad was Mitt Romney’s acceptance speech? According to Intrade, the odds of Obama being reelected have increased from 55.7% before the speech to 56.8% after.

snip//

Anyone looking for a big bounce in support for Mitt Romney after that speech probably shouldn’t be holding their breath. The speech was an underwhelming disjointed mess with no theme, no vision, and at times seemingly no idea where it was going.

Mitt Romney’s speech was essentially a longer more drawn out version of his stump speech. If you have heard Romney speak in the last five years, then you’ve heard this speech before.

But it takes a special kind of fail to give a national address, and see your opponent’s odds of success increase.

snip//

The Republican nominee demonstrated once again that he is over matched by the big stage. If the impression that Romney left in Tampa helped Obama today, imagine what is fallout might be when these two men are standing by side at the presidential debates.

Only Mitt Romney could hurt his odds of victory by showing up at his own convention. The one thing working most in Obama’s favor as he campaigns for reelection is that he is running against Mitt Romney.

[FirstLight]

1. bahahaha!

Boom baby! OUR POTUS wins when the other guy speaks....you just can't make this stuff up!

Add say about 5 more points when the DNC convenes, and I am lowballing...
Add another 5 points during the debates...


ya, our biggest enemy this election is voter suppression...so let's be vigilant on that!

[bluestateguy]

2. 57.5 as of right now

nt

[Quixote1818]

15. 57.9 now, a change of .4 in just 40 minutes from your post. nt

[otohara]

3. Good, He Can Take One of Those $30 Million

Per year job offers he's turned down and quit pretending he's something he's not!

[Cha]

4. From Jason's Keyboard to

the very special gods of the Election2012's EARS! That's how it should be in a sane USA.

Thanks babylonsistah!

[bigdarryl]

5. intrade isn't a good predictor

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Yes it is.

[Quixote1818]

16. Actually it extremely accurate. nt

[LiberalFighter]

7. So if he spent 5 years saying the same thing over and over...

wouldn't that mean he would keep repeating again and again if he was elected?

[Sheepshank]

8. Good...let Koch and Addleson pour more money into the economy

to try and win anyway. Perfect.

[Rozlee]

9. I'm the world's biggest pessimist, but still...

Romney has no one behind him except old white people. Depending on which poll you pay attention to, Obama is ahead of Romney by around 95% with African-Americans, 70% with Hispanics, roughly the same with Asian-Americans, around 68% with American Jews, I'm not sure of the youth vote, but I'm assuming it's going in Obama's favor, and 10 points up with women. Who was it, Karl Rove (?) who said a presidential candidate will need to have at least 44% of the Hispanic vote to win in future elections? And the election will come down to the swing states, many of which will be decided by the Hispanic vote. But, the pessimist in me is still worried about those Diebold machines, voter suppression, low Democrat voter turnout and the near billion raised against Obama by Citizens United.

[donqpublic]

10. Please go back to the private sector...

they at least deserve you. And take Lyin with you.

[chuckstevens]

11. Don't Get Over Confident

Remember: They're still trying to steal this thing anyway they can! However, when Obama does win, the first thing he needs to do is hold a national presidential address calling out by name Mitch McConnell and the Bonner and ask them if they still plan on obstructing everything.

[babylonsister]

12. I like that idea, chuckstevens, and welcome to DU! nt

[Tarheel_Dem]

14. ^^^ THIS ^^^

[NewJeffCT]

18. Welcome to DU

and, good idea on calling out the Republican leaders.

However, Obama calling them out 4 years ago - telling them to stop listening to & following Rush Limbaugh - got a good amount of publicity, but Republicans still bowed down to the altar of Rush.

[beac]

20. That should be part of his speech at the convention.

Call them out and keep calling them out every day until election day.

And WELCOME to DU!

[calimary]

21. Welcome to DU, chuckstevens and donqpublic!

Glad to have you here! We need you! Help us keep debunking the lies.




Now get to work.

[defacto7]

25. hear, hear!

Last edited Tue Sep 4, 2012, 01:24 PM - Edit history (1)

[awoke_in_2003]

32. Yep, we are counting our chickens...

too soon. Kerry slaughtered Bush in their debates. Never underestimate the stupidity of the American people. Welcome to DU

[Monk06]

39. What needs to happen after the election is the elimination of the fillibustere and every other

blocking maneuver in the House Rule book. Simple majority to pass legislation and the VP should not be the tie breaker in the Senate. In the event of a tie legislation should go back to the House. And there should be closure after a reasonable amount of debate.

The Congress as it stands is not disfunctional it is nonfunctional. The Repugs may like that the government literally doesn't work but it is killing the country.

[Historic NY]

43. Welcome to DU - I'm hoping BoHner is a goner...

or in the very least loses the speakership

[progressivebydesign]

45. Yes! I also want to remind everyone that it's equally important to support downticket.

Another term with President Obama, and a hostile Senate and House, is going to be more of the same.

[Doctor Jack]

13. I think Romney's situation has been more desperate than the media will admit

And the convention needed to be a home run in order for him to make up ground. Instead we got Lyin' Ryan, Clint the Incomprehensible, a 30 minute round of heavy breathing from Christie, and a highly mediocre speech by the big dog himself. At best, the convention was forgettable and that really only leaves Romney and Ryan the debates for a comeback. And most of us have seen Romney debate....its not pretty.

[PsychGrad]

17. I am SO looking forward...

to the debates! If I didn't even like Obama (I adore him! lol), I would still have to respect his intelligence and his ability to stay calm and steady when under pressure. He's got swag... by the pound! These debates are going to be hilarious! )

[calimary]

26. Welcome to DU, PsychGrad and Doctor Jack!

Glad you are here, too! Thanks for your help winning this thing - we need you!





Now get to work.

[Historic NY]

44. Welcome to DU...

the POTUS will come out with a big stick...because etch-a-sketch can't remember which lie or when he told it.

[NewJeffCT]

19. The bald Republican guy on MSNBC

Forgot his name - he was played by Woody Harrelson in Game Change - said that if Romney's not ahead by more than the margin of error this weekend, he's in trouble. I think that's true. And, the polling I've seen has been Romney by 2, which is well within margins of error on most polls.

I expect Obama to be ahead by more than the margin of error by the end of the DNC - while I thought Rubio gave a pretty good speech (though, light on policy) - the Republicans have nobody that can hold a candle to Bill Clinton or Barack Obama. Heck, I thought Michelle Obama was pretty damn good back in 2008.

[chuckstevens]

22. bald Guy

Steve Schmidt?

[calimary]

24. Steve Schmidt.

And remember, marco rubio's speech didn't have the anticipated effect, either, because it was overshadowed by Clint Eastwood.

[Doc Holliday]

31. In all fairness to Sen. Rubio

Clint was kind of a hard act to follow.

[SkyDaddy7]

23. WE WILL SEE...

I thought the same thing about McCain & Palin but turns out they surged ahead of Obama in the polls several days after the GOP Convention had ended...Sarah Palin giving interviews is what reversed the numbers 7 they held until election day.

WE WILL SEE what the polls look like come late next week...Then what they look like after Obama works his magic! Because Obama will have a a defined vision of where he thinks America should be headed & he plans on getting there!

Then Obama will have to endure the most money ever spent against a candidate running for any office anywhere EVER...If he still wins the election then enough Americans will have truly spoken they don't want anything to do with the GOPs Far RIGHT AGENDA!!

I sure hope this will be the case...This will be a very long 2 months!!!!

Obama 2012!!

[calimary]

27. And I believe they went second, so of course they were going to get a bump.

The Democratic Convention went first four years ago. Then came the mcsame/palin show.

[defacto7]

28. Can someone please tell me when the Republican convention starts?

[bayareaboy]

29. It looks like Mittens ...

And the GOP are holding their Midas touch wand in the wrong direction.

[1GirlieGirl]

30. As others have said...

The only things that can stop President Obama's re-election are dirty voter suppression tactics and the staggering amount of disposable income that crooks like Adelson and the Kochs are willing to pour into PACs. RMoney and Lyin would never stand a chance against Our Man without those 2 factors.

[awoke_in_2003]

33. Welcome to DU...

[cheezmaka]

40. Very True...

That's why ALL of us need to give as much as we can to the campaign. I just made another donation to Obama for America and MoveON.org and will plan to do more before Nov. If all of us do the same, I believe this will help Obama even 'FURTHER'...

[D23MIURG23]

34. I can't wait for the debates. n/t

[cheezmaka]

41. Me neither!

Obama vs. Romney and Biden vs. Ryan! a DOUBLE-HEADER!!!

[BrainMann1]

35. NO momentum at all.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

36. bounceless

[kalli007]

37. But

"But it takes a special kind of fail to give a national address, and see your opponent’s odds of success increase."
L
O
L

[Monk06]

38. Compared to that speech the board meetings he chaired at Bain must have been riviting.