Obama vulnerable in Florida

[center rising]

According to a Quinnipiac poll, Obama loses to Romney by 3 points, (46-43), and barely beats Rick Santorum, (45-43). also, Obama has an approval rating of only 42%. He's got a lot of work to do to get Floridians to vote for him this time around.


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1689

[onehandle]

1. Wait until Romney picks Rubio as a running mate.

The Obama team needs to look elsewhere for an electoral win.

[montanacowboy]

4. Can you even imagine that little prick Rubio

being one heartbeat away from the presidency?

[onehandle]

10. They could imagine Sister Sarah one heartbeat away.

So my guess is that they could imagine the same for him.

[SaintPete]

13. Rubio is not the force we think him to be

Rubio's popularity has dipped in Florida, and his negatives are up: (Link Here). In this poll, the majority of Floridians say they are less likely to vote Republican if Rubio is on the ticket!

[UrbScotty]

18. Just like Palin helped McCain get the women vote

[montanacowboy]

2. Maybe he should ask all those Seniors

living in the sunshine state how they feel about Romney's just lovin Paul Ryan's scheme to take their SS?

How dumb can people get?

[DrDan]

7. so seniors in Montana are more in-tune with reality?

or are you disparaging seniors in general?

[montanacowboy]

9. Just that Fla has a larger Sr. population

and once they find out Romney loves Ryan that should take care of that.

[denem]

3. You have to question the value of these pre-primary polls

given the way the GOP candidates are hacking each other to bits.

The first real indication might come after the circular firing squad attack ads have been airing for a week.

[bluestateguy]

6. No more polls

[emulatorloo]

8. What is the margin of error?

I can't find that figure.

[WI_DEM]

11. NC and VA seem more likely at this point for Obama than Florida

but it's not over yet. The campaign hasn't even begun.

[motely36]

12. My partner and I add two votes in FL

We just moved here in Aug.

Also, voting for Grayson!

[SaintPete]

14. I think this poll is a joke

Here are the demographics:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/fl/fl01102012_demos.doc

You'll see that the poll claims it has a MoE of +/- 2.6%, with 1412 voters surveyed.

But dig deeper and you'll find some weird figures...

PARTY IDENTIFICATION

Republican: 32% / 498
Democrat: 29% / 376
Independent: 32% / 450
Other/DK/NA 8% / 88

According to the above, the poll included 32% Republicans, and only 29% Democrats - but when we actually do they math ourselves, the numbers look very different. (489/1412 = 35% Repubs, 376/1412 = 26% Dems). A partisan split of 35 has tripled into a partisan split of 9%. No wonder the republicans are doing better in this poll. The pollster writes it off as "weighted" results, but never explains how the results were weighted, so there's no way to verify if the weighting process is rational.

RACE
White (non-hisp): 71% / 1162
Black (non-hisp): 12% / 105
Hispanic (all races): 13% / 99
Other/DK/NA: 4% / 46

Same problem here...the same weighting process is applied, so the numbers given appear more representative of the population than they actually are--
1162 Whites polled is NOT 71% (1162 / 1412 = 82%)
105 Blacks is not 12%, it's 7.4%
99 Hispanics polled is not 13%, it's 7.0%

Funny... the weighted statistics for the poll look as if they were contrived so as to match true voter demographics. Why is the process for weighted statistics not given? why are white and Republicans so heavily favored in this poll?

[FarLeftFist]

15. What are those senior citizens thinking?!

[ge626dfil]

19. that's what i'm wondering...

[1stlady]

16. That poll isn't accurate

Obama won FL due to the heavy turn out of minorities. He can win Fl again if he gets the same turn out with minorities. There is no way FL should be taken off the list, its ripe with minorities young and older. The only reason John Kerry lost FL, was because he scratched it off the list. He didn't campaign hard enough for the minority and jewish vote like Obama did. Florida, is very win-able for democrats, trust me I live in Jacksonville, FL. In the county of Duval, which was thought of as a very conservative part of FL, McCain only won duval county by 1%. That shocked everyone here, considering how red Duval country has been over the years. So trust me, FL can definitely be won again by Obama!!

[UrbScotty]

17. "Vulnerable" in a battleground state? Repubs need Florida or they're doomed.

States won by both Kerry and Gore now equal 242 electoral votes following reapportionment.

Add in Florida's 29 votes, and that brings Obama up to 271.

So if Obama wins all the states Kerry and Gore won (which O himself also won in 2008), plus Florida, he's in for another term.

That doesn't include Ohio (18 EVs), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Indiana (11), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Nevada (6) New Mexico (5), and New Hampshire (4), all of which Bush won at least once but Obama won in 2008. Nor does it include Arizona (11) and Missouri (10), which went to McCain by small margins and could go to Obama this time. They could easily make up for a loss in Florida.

And as was mentioned above the thread, polls are all but meaningless this far out.