gop voter turnout in early primary states

[babylonsister]

Found on FB...

[gopiscrap]

1. Excellent lets hope it stas that way and we have a huge uptick in turnout

we're gonna need it to fight all tha repuke gerrymandering and voter suppression.

[SmellyFeet]

2. And just think about 2008 vs. 2012 for Republicans.

They should be much more excited about voting now (getting rid of Obama) compared to then (Bush destroying the economy), and yet it's exactly the opposite.

This is not good news at all for Republicans.

[Comedywriter1214]

3. Add to this...

With the limited exception of FL...which can be explained away by Jeb not wanting Newt to steamroll the solid south with back to back Romney-Kickings in SC & FL...Romney has had less success than in 2008.

He has won what he win then...by smaller margins and with fewer votes, AND a smaller field.

He has list, what he lost.

And, again, with the exception of the non-factor Nevada caucus...hree STILL can't even secure 50% OF HIS OWN PARTY.

Sad times for Mighty Mitt of the Magic Underwear.
Thoughts at 3 A.M. http://thoughtsatthreeam.blogspot.com/?spref=tw

[JTFrog]

4. Funny I was just mentioning in another thread that Repubs don't seem too excited to get out and vote

Looks like the numbers don'tlie.

[former9thward]

5. Turnout out was up in the first three states, down in the next two.

Up in Iowa, New Hampshire, and S. Carolina. Down in Florida and Nevada. Your FB graph is inaccurate about New Hampshire.

"In New Hampshire, GOP Chairman Wayne MacDonald said he was pleased with an uptick in GOP primary turnout to nearly 250,000 voters, from 241,000 four years earlier. But he was equally happy to see just 62,000 ballots cast in the Democratic primary, where Obama was a shoo-in. MacDonald contrasts that number to the 77,000 who turned out to vote for President Bill Clinton in his re-election year in 1996 and sees signs of flagging support for Obama."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/02/voter-turnout-gop-republican-primaries_n_1250601.html

[babylonsister]

6. Maybe this will clarify ThinkProgress' graph - - >

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/nh-turnout-dropped-16-among-actual-republicans/307181

NH turnout dropped 16% among actual Republicans

Over at Townhall, Guy Benson has defended the strength of Mitt Romney's victory in New Hampshire, and I don't think there's any disputing that it was a solid win. But I think there's one important point worth clarifying. Though overall turnout in the primary is projected to set a record, eclipsing the 2008 tally, turnout among Republican voters is on track to be down by roughly 16 percent.

The reason for the discrepancy is that because there was no competitive Democratic primary this time around (as well as several GOP candidates aggressively chasing their votes), there was a huge spike in the number of independents and Democrats who were voting in the Republican race, something Granite Staters can do in the open primary system.

When you eliminate independents and Democrats from the 2008 equation, actual registered Republicans made up 61 percent of the roughly 239,000 votes cast in the GOP primary, putting the turnout among Republicans at around 145,790. But last night, actual Republicans only comprised 49 percent of the electorate, according to exits. Even if we round up the final 2012 turnout number to 250,000, which would be slightly higher than current projections, that would only leave actual Republican turnout at 122,500, which would represent a 16 percent drop.

Now obviously, there are a number of caveats involved. More and more voters are identifying as independent, especially in New Hampshire, even though they typically behave in a partisan matter. And perhaps disaffection with Obama also led to a spike in turnout among Democrats and true independents. But either way, this is worth keeping in mind when you hear reports of the "record" turnout. From my observations, Republican events have been generally low energy both in Iowa and New Hampshire, especially when compared with what we saw on the Democratic side in 2008.