First New Hampshire Poll Of The New Year -PPP (D) HRC 47% (+3) SBS 44% (+2) MOM 3% (-5)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Things remain extremely close on the Democratic side, with Hillary Clinton at
47% to 44% for Bernie Sanders, and 3% for Martin O'Malley. There's an
incredible divide between the Democrats and independents planning to vote in
the primary- Clinton leads Sanders 55/36 with Democrats, but Sanders almost
completely cancels that out with a 59/29 advantage among non-Democrats
planning to vote in the primary. That's just one of several big dividers in the
Democratic race- Clinton leads 51/38 with women while Sanders leads 50/42
with men, and Clinton leads 54/36 with seniors while Sanders is up 46/45 with
everyone else

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_10616.pdf

Study finds PPP was the most accurate pollster in 2012

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/266615-study-finds-ppp-kos-the-most-accurate-pollsters-in-2012

[bunnies]

1. Landlines / internet.

I do love your persistence though.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Thank you for your kind words and may I share this with you in the same spirit

A study conducted overnight found liberal-leaning pollster Public Policy Polling was the most accurate predictor of the 2012 presidential election.

PPP projected a 2-point Obama victory and put him at the critical 50 percent mark, 50 to 48 percent over Romney.

As of early Wednesday, President Obama was leading the national popular vote by about 2.7 million votes, taking 50.1 percent support against Mitt Romney at 48.4 – a difference of 1.7 points.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/266615-study-finds-ppp-kos-the-most-accurate-pollsters-in-2012

[bunnies]

5. This is no longer 2012.

Landlines are a thing of the past now more than ever.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. The most recent poll beside PPP showed a similar HRC lead.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-23409

[bunnies]

52. I suppose time will tell.

I'd be shocked if she carried NH though. Just based on the feel of things here. Can't speak for everyone in my state though. Any things possible in NH.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. I believe Twitter and Facebook polls lack proper controls./nt

[kenfrequed]

2. Nate silver gives it a B minus with a conservative bias.

But I guess his website only counts if Enten is writing an article about how impossible it is for Bernie to win.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I believe it was Great Nate, himself, who suggested a Sanders victory was improbable

I believe it was Great Nate, himself, who suggested a Sanders victory was improbable

Is there any chance Hillary isn't the Democratic nominee?
I think you would have to have some type of renewed scandal or health problem or something like that. I could see Bernie Sanders winning a few states. New Hampshire is still very close. But her chances have to be in the range of 90 [percent] to 95 percent. Trump has more of a chance than Bernie.

http://www.adweek.com/news/advertising-branding/nate-silver-trump-has-more-chance-bernie-beating-clinton-168776

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Here is the list our friend is working from. You decide.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

[JonLeibowitz]

27. Or when he claimed the only challenge to Hillary could be from the Right and chose Jim Webb...

Yes, that was an actual Enten article.

[kenfrequed]

65. Enten is ridiculous and has been for quite some time

It is remarkable he still has work in that field since most of his articles essentially has been: "Yeah 'X' but here is why Hillary will win everything anyways"

[JonLeibowitz]

66. The crazy thing is that if Hillary wins, he will still have a job in that field.

It will be a classic case of being right for the wrong reasons. Or put another way, "confusing strategy with outcome".

[John Poet]

55. Yep.

They don't drag Nate out of their ass otherwise.

[litlbilly]

4. Again with these BS polls, ppp is not trustworthy when its run by Hillary's people like David Brock

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. I believe the CEO is Dean Debnam.

Again with these BS polls, ppp is not trustworthy when its run by Hillary's people like David Brock

-litlbilly

I believe the CEO is Dean Debnam. Perhaps I am mistaken. If you have evidence to the contrary would you please adduce it.


Thank you in advance.

[litlbilly]

12. So all those polls showing Bernie up by 10 in NH are bogus? Just wondering

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Actually the polling is in flux with recent polling showing a tilt toward Madame Secretary

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html#polls


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-democratic-primary

[brooklynite]

13. Whereas a Wall Street Journal Poll showing Sanders ahead (11 points!) got nary a challenge...

http://www.scribd.com/doc/283709043/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-October-2015

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. If you notice that was a landline poll whose results we are instructed to ignore.

HH SELECTION – LANDLINE FRAME ONLY

[Cal33]

30. It's normal for Democrats to ignore Wall Street polls.

[brooklynite]

31. Unless they're Sanders' supporters.

[Cal33]

39. I couldn't care less whatever Wall Strseet says -- be it anti, pro or neutral about any person,

place, or thing.

[Alfresco]

7. Thx DSB. You know the only polls that count for BS people are those showing him ahead.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. It is consistent with the very last poll taken in New Hamphire

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/nhdem.html

[jkbRN]

9. Hm.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 515 likely Republican primary voters and 480 likely Democratic primary voters from January 4th to 6th. The margin of error is +/-4.3% for the Republicans and +/- 4.5% for the Democrats. 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Please see Post 10

Thank you in advance.

[brooklynite]

15. I'd say those lines are about to cross...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. I wonder why we didn't see the questioning of You Gov's methodology

The CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is a panel study based on interviews conducted on the internet of registered voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. The poll was conducted by YouGov, an online polling organization.

The first wave was fielded between September 3-10, 2015, with 4,860 respondents, and the second wave fieldwork was completed between October 15-22, 2015, with 3,952 respondents and the third wave between November 15-19, 2015. The fourth wave was fielded between December 13-17, 2015. The majority of the 2nd-4th wave respondents are recontacted panelists. Respondents were selected from YouGovs and two other online panels. These are “opt-in” panels which are open for anyone to join. However, YouGov also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone. A total of 22,517 registered voters were contacted by phone and the YouGov sample includes 1,753 phone recruits.


https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/09/13/methodology-2016-cbs-news-battleground-tracker/

[NurseJackie]

18. Could be better ... but it looks good to me!

Especially considering that it's New Hampshire (a state that's not exactly representative of the country) and considering that it's Bernie's own "back yard".

Things are getting very exciting!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. New Hampshire should be his wheelhouse.

Why do you think he has having such a difficult time there?

I don't see Hillary struggling in New Jersey, Connecticut, Mississippi Tennessee, and Missouri.

[NurseJackie]

24. I think it's because Bernie's message isn't resonating with people outside of a certain segment.

He's not perceived positively enough by a large portion of the country. And of the many who admire him and his "cause" they see Hillary as being the more capable candidate. Well rounded, knowledgeable, and competent... ready on day-1, as the saying goes.

(PRE-POST EDIT: I'd typed a few lines that expressed my opinion of Bernie and possible reasons that he faces such difficult challenges, but I just erased it. Actually, itt wasn't an ugly or unfair assessment, nor was it an attack or insult ... but you know how these things tend to go, DSB. I decided that the 6:1 risk of getting a hide was too great. ~~~ You'll just have to go from memory of things that I and others have already posted.)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. There isn't one thing you wrote I would demur from. I won't say more.

[Alfresco]

26. Bill's time in NH may already be having an impact. He can be very convincing.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Excellent point, Alfresco, excellent point.

[Cal33]

32. I just read the link below. You might not find it so excellent.

http://observer.com/2016/01/bill-clinton-bombs-in-his-first-solo-speech-in-new-hampshire/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Thank you for the link. Glad you keep me in mind. I will give it the attention it deserves.

[John Poet]

56. Former White House interns all agree on that !

[Alfresco]

57. Bill has superpowers you could learn from, well maybe. Link provided.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/08/bill-clinton_n_3718956.html

Bill Clinton Has A Superpower, And Mastering It Can Make You Successful Beyond Belief

[DCBob]

33. Superb!

[Gamecock Lefty]

34. NH = East Vermont?

HRC looking good in Bernie's backyard! Impressive.

[bunnies]

53. NH is not East Vermont.

I wish it were.

[Alfresco]

36. If she can win NH...

it's over. Bye Bye Bernie.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. I believe this poll has caused much consternation in some quarters, you?/nt

[Alfresco]

40. Yep. I noticed too.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. Do you think that their protestations notwithstanding they see it as a harbinger of things to come?

EOM

[Alfresco]

42. Some see, some do not.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. I believe Elisabeth Kubler Ross has addressed this phenomenon./nt

[Kentonio]

70. Or to put it another way..

This poll has caused numerous instances of Hillary supporters telling each other that Bernie supporters are now really worried.

Personally I'm considerably happier with the race than I was a month ago, and I wouldn't bet a nickel on a Hillary win in either NH or Iowa at this point.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

74. I admire your confidence.

But I am one of the few posters here who is actually willing to walk the talk

How about a small donation to the charity of the other's choice or Democratic Underground, say fifty bucks, should their candidate lose.

I will only bet on the outcome of the entire primary, not this or that state. Betting on the latter is akin to betting on the first quarter of the SuperBowl or the opening game of a MLB, NBA, or NHL series; anything can happen but the longer the series goes on the stronger or better team usually emerges.


PEACE
DSB

[Kentonio]

76. My confidence is about Iowa and NH. I've said from the beginning that the nomination was a long shot

There are a couple of things that need to happen after NH for things to go completely the way I want them to, but an Iowa win (which I'd previously hoped for but not being totally convinced would happen) will turn it from a long shot into a genuinely open race. I now very much believe that Iowa and NH will turn out for Bernie. As for the whole primary I need to see the results from SC before I'm willing to make any longer term predictions.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

78. I am basing my prediction of the outcome...

I am basing my prediction of the outcome that nothing will shake Hillary Clinton's non-white support, nothing...

I do not buy the notion that non-white voters are going to be swayed by the results from two of the nation's most homogeneous states, regardless of how they vote.

There are no parallels between Senator Sanders's 016 campaign and Barack Obama's 08 campaign. Polling showed African Americans were perfectly content to vote for Hillary Clinton until Barack Obama demonstrated his viability by winning a predominately white state. Once he proved his viability by winning IA African Americans embraced the chance to break the color barrier of the presidency by voting for him. Obviously, that impetus is lacking in this primary season

Also, Hillary Clinton's Hispanic support never wavered. She carried them 2-1 over Barack Obama.

[Kentonio]

79. We shall see.

I think you put far too much weight into the racial makeup of Iowa and New Hampshire. For a huge swathe of the electorate those wins will be processed as a series of news stories shouting about Bernie victories and 'Will clinton lose again?!'. Their worth is to do with momentum and media focus especially for lower information voters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

80. Bill Clinton lost IA and NH. it didn't hurt him.

Bill Clinton lost IA and NH. It didn't hurt him. In fact the last five presidents have won the South Carolina primary while the last three presidents have lost the New Hampshire primary.


We were having a parallel conversation in another thread...It has nothing to do with certain groups not availing themselves of information and everything to do with this:











I know Bill isn't Hill but certain groups associate the name Clinton with good times.

[Kentonio]

81. Given that Bernie is stronger on those issues than Hillary, we'll have to agree to disagree.

As for previous races, I don't remember the last time one nominee had quite this much expectation on them to win. Once that air of inevitability is gone, things change substantially.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

82. Respectfully, that is subjective

Given that Bernie is stronger on those issues than Hillary.

Respectfully, that is subjective. What is not subjective is that African American, Latino, Asian american unemployment, and poverty was at its lowest level in a generation while African American and Hispanic home ownership was at its highest level in a generation.
The 90s wasn't so long ago that many voters have forgotten them.

As to HRC and the issues I give you this:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251980110

[Kentonio]

83. I understood that blame for any wrongs during Bill's terms were not to be laid at Hillary's door?

So why exactly are the benefits automatically given? Because I could just as easy remind you that the deregulation that led to the largest loss of AA, Latino and American Asian wealth in modern times was also carried out under the Clinton administation, and that is a lot more easy remembered than the positives from the 90's.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

84. I see that argument made here with great frequency.

I see that argument made here with great frequency. Taken to it's logical conclusion it absolves President Bush of all complicity in The Great Recession. After all, as you suggest:

So why exactly are the benefits automatically given? Because I could just as easy remind you that the deregulation that led to the largest loss of AA, Latino and American Asian wealth in modern times was also carried out under the Clinton administration, and that is a lot more easy remembered than the positives from the 90's.

it was just the fruit of President Clinton's policies. Poor Dubya, Bill Clinton robbed him of his prosperity. I assure you most folks believe Bill Clinton was a good economic steward and his immediate predecessor and successor were poor ones. Bush Pere and Dubya own the recessions that preceded and succeeded Bill Clinton.

[Kentonio]

85. Bush has plenty of blame owed to him.

Starting several wars while cutting taxes, costing the country trillions.

The blame for the deregulation that led to the banks wild behavior and eventual crash however belongs to Reagan and Clinton.

[OilemFirchen]

47. Actually...

if Sanders does not win by double-digits in his own backyard, his already charred campaign will be reduced to crumbs.

[Kentonio]

71. That's pretty funny.

[OilemFirchen]

72. It wasn't meant to be.

Glad you got a chuckle, though.

[Kentonio]

73. I know.

[Fawke Em]

37. Oh - that polling firm that gets some money from the Clinton campaign.

Ignore.

[MohRokTah]

44. Looks like New Hampshire will come down to what it always comes down to.

Ground game.

Obama had a bit of a lead prior to the New Hampshire primary in 2008. Hillary's ground game shut down the polls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. Barack obama had a 8 point lead last time

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html

[MohRokTah]

46. Like I said. Ground Game.

It will be interesting to see who can put up the best ground game this go around.

[Overly]

48. Panic in Bernieland

Their only possible victory is in jeopardy. Will it be a shutout? Stay tuned.

[Alfresco]

54. ...

Your title "Panic in Bernieland" is perfect.

[Bleacher Creature]

49. NH was always just a bonus for Clinton.

If she loses, it's still clear sailing for her in the next dozen or so primaries. If she does pull it off (along with IA), Sanders is done.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. The pressure is all on Senator Sanders./nt

[RandySF]

51. It will be all over if Hillary wins there.

[Sancho]

58. National polls have been consistent for a couple months: Hillary in the 50-60% range, Bernie 20-30%

If anything, the last few weeks have indicated a slight gain by Hillary after the last debate. If there was a mercy rule in politics, they would call this game. The media give Bernie some positives to make the news interesting and because the repub stations would do anything to defeat Hillary; but it's not a close contest right now. The best thing for Hillary would be to get lots of attention in a primary and win after a vigorous contest. The DNC seems to have orchestrated a good plan. Kudos to DWS. If Hillary wins the GE, DWS will get credit for a well-conceived election strategy to elect the first woman President.

State polls (from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html)

Iowa:
Gravis 12/18 - 12/21 418 LV 5.0 49 31 10 Clinton +18
CBS News/YouGov 12/14 - 12/17 459 LV 8.6 50 45 4 Clinton +5
PPP (D) 12/10 - 12/13 526 LV 4.3 52 34 7 Clinton +18
Des Moines Register 12/7 - 12/10 404 LV 4.9 48 39 4 Clinton +9
FOX News 12/7 - 12/10 357 LV 5.0 50 36 5 Clinton +14

NH:
PPP (D) 1/4 - 1/6 480 LV 4.5 44 47 3 Clinton +3
ARG 12/20 - 12/20 600 LV 4.0 43 46 3 Clinton +3
CBS News/YouGov 12/14 - 12/17 458 LV 7.5 56 42 1 Sanders +14
Boston Herald 12/13 - 12/17 410 LV 4.8 48 46 2 Sanders +2

SC:
CBS News/YouGov 12/14 - 12/17 380 LV 9.7 67 31 2 Clinton +36
FOX News 12/5 - 12/8 364 LV 5.0 65 21 3 Clinton +44

Nevada:
Gravis 12/23 - 12/27 326 LV 5.0 50 27 1 Clinton +23
CNN/ORC 10/3 - 10/10 253 LV 6.0 50 34 0 Clinton +16

Mass:
Boston Globe/Suffolk 11/19 - 11/22 241 LV 6.3 54 29 3 Clinton +25
Emerson College 10/16 - 10/18 265 LV 6.0 59 25 3 Clinton +34

MN:
PPP (D) 7/30 - 8/2 426 RV 4.9 50 32 4 Clinton +18
Suffolk 4/24 - 4/28 100 LV 9.8 63 -- -- Clinton +48
PPP (D) 1/18 - 1/20 373 RV 5.1 59 -- 1 Clinton +45

NC:
PPP (D) 12/5 - 12/7 555 RV 4.2 60 21 10 Clinton +39
Elon University 10/29 - 11/2 514 RV 4.3 57 24 3 Clinton +33

OK:
Sooner Poll/News 9/News on 6 11/12 - 11/15 389 LV 5.1 47 12 2 Clinton +35
The Oklahoman 10/19 - 10/22 350 RV 5.4 30 21 1 Clinton +9

LA:
WWL-TV/Clarus 9/20 - 9/23 57 22 7 2 1 0 Clinton +35

MI:
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell 9/18 - 9/18 538 LV 35 28 22 -- -- -- Clinton +7
MRG 9/9 - 9/14 600 LV 41 22 22 0 1 0 Clinton +19

FL:
Florida Atlantic University 11/15 - 11/16 297 LV 5.6 66 22 4 Clinton +44
Bay News 9/News 13 10/28 - 11/1 922 LV -- 66 24 3 Clinton +42
UNF 10/14 - 10/19 632 RV 3.9 55 16 0 Clinton +39

Missouri:
PPP (D) 8/7 - 8/9 352 LV 5.2 53 25 5 5 1 Clinton +28

OH:
Quinnipiac 9/25 - 10/5 40 21 19 1 0 0 0 Clinton +19
Quinnipiac 8/7 - 8/18 47 14 17 -- 0 1 0 Clinton +30
Quinnipiac 6/4 - 6/15 60 13 10 -- 1 0 0 Clinton +47
PPP (D) 6/4 - 6/7 61 -- 13 -- 2 1 2 Clinton +48
Quinnipiac 3/17 - 3/28 54 9 3 -- 3 2 -- Clinton +40
Quinnipiac 1/22 - 2/1 51 7 5 -- 1 0 -- Clinton +37

[DemocratSinceBirth]

60. Outstanding analysis.

EOM

[baldguy]

59. If Bernie can't win over his neighbors in NH, his run will end sooner rather than later.

[MineralMan]

61. It's gonna be a nail-biter, for sure.

The final rounds of campaigning will make the difference.

[book_worm]

62. virtually no change since their last poll which had Hillary up by 2.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

63. Which is great news. That should be Senator Sanders' wheelhouse./nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

63. TY/nt

[riversedge]

67. K and R--and thanks

[DemocratSinceBirth]

68. You are welcome./nt

[riversedge]

69. Hillary Clinton lead Bernie Sanders by 3 points in New Hampshire Tweet

Hillary Clinton lead Bernie Sanders by 3 points in New Hampshire: poll http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jan/7/hillary-clinton-lead-bernie-sanders-3-points-new-h/#.Vo6tkV9doZQ.twitter … #p2 @HilaryforNH #nhpolitics #uniteblue

[ohiolover]

75. Time to get out the millennial vote

[Sheepshank]

77. Bernie's numbers bolstered by non-Democratic voters

makes sense...annoying that he wishes to run as a Dem even though he despises the Party, but a majority of the Dems don't want him, so he gets shoved down everyone's throat.