The South is Ready To Save Hillary Clinton

[pnwmom]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/01/06/the-daily-202-the-south-is-ready-to-save-hillary-clinton/

POINT CLEAR, Ala.—Bernie Sanders could win the Iowa caucuses and/or the New Hampshire primary. If that happens, the South stands ready to save Hillary Clinton.

The Democratic primary in South Carolina is Saturday, Feb. 27, and Clinton has a much more comfortable lead than in the first two early states. Then Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia all vote the following Tuesday, March 1.

Several Republican secretaries of state in the region worked together to move up the contests so that the South would have more clout. While their primary focus in creating “the SEC Primary,” named for the college football conference, was prodding the GOP to choose a more conservative nominee, the unintended result has been to give the Democratic frontrunner a firewall in case things kick off poorly.

“I believe Hillary is a lock to sweep the Deep South,” said Richard Fording, the chair of the political science department at the University of Alabama.

[7wo7rees]

1. Maybe, just maybe the real South might just be ready for

BERNIE!!!!!

It could happen!

[840high]

2. You bet it could.

[7wo7rees]

3. Banking on it! n/t

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

45. Hillary is the one who is "banking" on it... post should read "Wall Street is ready to save Hillary" ...

... and vice versa.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[CoffeeCat]

6. If Bernie wins Iowa and NH...

Clinton will be hobbling on political crutches for the remainder of the race and Bernie will be a phenomena.

Knowing that Clinton has so much influence and power with the media, you have to wonder if the haven't all ready conceded Iowa and NH.

I don't ever remember seeing stories like this so early in 2008.

You always have to watch the narrative being built by the Hillary camp. This looks like they trying to say, "So what if we lose IA and NH, the South will save us!"

I find this incredibly interesting.

[hedda_foil]

24. Didn't Ghouliani try that strategy and wind up millions of dollars spent to win one electoral vote?

[jfern]

29. $62 million to win one hypothetical federal delegate

[Ken Burch]

72. With Rudy it was all about Florida.

And yes, one delegate.

Reminds me of the coup d'grace the NBC news administered to John Connally's campaign in 1980. The anchorman pointed out that, several states in, Connally had so far managed to win just one delegate...then said "here...is that delegate", and showed a picture of a dour-looking old woman(I think she was from Iowa).

[George II]

116. New Hampshire right now is a toss-up, Iowa has Clinton ahead by roughly 15%.

If Sanders does win NH, chances are they'll be separated by 1-2%, meaning he'll get only one or two more delegates that Clinton.

If he loses Iowa by 15% or even much less, Clinton will come out of those two states with a net higher delegate total.

[CoffeeCat]

117. Clinton is not ahead by 15 in Iowa, that's for sure

The last Iowa Poll had her up by 9, and that was end of Nov.

Bernie's crowds and enthusiasm have grown exponentially in Iowa, since that time.

Last night on the DFA calls, Sanders said that they have strong indicators that the Iowa race is tightening.

NO way in hell is she ahead by 15.

Worst-case scenario, Sanders is behind 7 or 8. Best, it's a bit higher than that.

[George II]

118. Here is the current status of the polls in Iowa.

Here are all of the polls going back more than a month. Format is lousy (sorry), but there was one poll since than that had Sanders closer than 11 points, average is over 15%. And even with the one poll where Clinton dipped below the magic point of 50%, she was up by 18%, and only that one poll that many have considered an outlier has Sanders above 40%.

It's not like he's "gaining", and keep in mind that there are barely three weeks to go.

Gravis Marketing 12/18 - 12/21/15 49 31 10
CBS/YouGov 12/14 - 12/17/15 50 45 4
PPP (D) 12/10 - 12/13/15 52 34 7
Quinnipiac 12/4 - 12/13/15 51 40 6
FOX 12/7 - 12/10/15 50 36 5
Loras College 12/7 - 12/10/15 59 27 4

[CoffeeCat]

121. I don't look at averages like that...

...because there are so many horrendously bunk polls out there. It's a banner year for unscientific, bizarre methodologies. And it's really frustrating to those of us who care about accuracy and good data.

I spent a great deal of time pouring over the polling methodologies. The Loras Poll is one of those polls in your average. It has Clinton up by 32 points in Iowa. That's clearly ridiculous. Read through the methodologies, who they exclude and who they include.
Loras, along with the Monmouth Poll (which you did not list) is garbage. An embarrassment to polling.

Another reason that I don't look at these lumped polls from a month ago, is because major shifts in Iowa started to happen two weeks ago. They campaigns are are ramped up now; more rallies, more ground game, more television ads, more media stories. The Iowa dynamics have shifted some in the past two weeks, and are in the process of completely turning our state into caucus central.

Some polls get it right. Many are bunk. Those averages include the bunk. I also looked at rolling averages from 2008. Again, some polls had it right; some were off. And the rolling averages that included the "off" polls were off nearly 10 points of the actual 2008 caucus result.

Because there are so many lazy, sloppy pollsters out there, I'm forced to primarily rely on Ann Selzer's Iowa Poll, which showed Sanders down by only 9. That came out in late November, so I don't have a lot to hang my hat on, poll-wise.

The Quinnipiac poll that comes out next week, looks promising, but I won't rely on it until I read the fine print. I'm only paying attention to select, reliable, science based polls. You want to show me where the race is, show me the next Selzer Iowa Poll. It comes out in 2-3 weeks.

I see a lot on the ground in Iowa, and I know for sure that Bernie has gained ground from late November, when that Iowa Poll (Clinton +9) was released. I'm betting that Quinnipiac will show a nice bump for Bernie. There is so much enthusiasm for Bernie and not as much for Clinton. He seems to be gathering momentum in our state.

[Fawke Em]

4. I'm not.

Tennessee here.

Working very hard against her.

[Go Vols]

5. yep,same here

[Uncle Joe]

9. Same here, Go Vols.

[Punkingal]

54. Grew up in Tennessee...I remember the good old days when TN was a Dem state!

[Docreed2003]

114. Native Tennesseean here...

Thanks for working hard for Bernie in TN!

[slipslidingaway]

7. Hope the South is ready to save us from Trump ...

although I have my doubts.

[tularetom]

8. Save her for what?

You mean get her the nomination so they can all vote against her in the general election.

I don't know how to tell you this but I don't think she's very popular in the region. In spite of the fake accent she adopts when she speaks there. Or maybe because of it. And it will be interesting to see how she explains her support for Obama's gun control executive orders to the good ole boys and girls.

She'll be lucky to get one electoral vote from the south.

[Punkingal]

53. +1000

[SwampG8r]

60. As a southerner its because of it nt

[TeddyR]

77. Hillary will hope to carry

Virginia, Florida and perhaps North Carolina. Bernie would also hope to carry those three states. Neither will carry another state in the South in the general election. Georgia might be in play in another four years but probably not.

[WillyT]

10. And THAT... Says It All...

[pnwmom]

11. Most of the Dems in the South are African American and Latino,

who have established strong connections with Hillary.

Time for Bernie, who spent most of his life representing the tiny and very northern state of Vermont, to figure out a better strategy than touring the South with Cornel West.

[WillyT]

12. Who Have Been Manipulated And Discounted By The Clinton's For Decades...

You want me to list them again ???

[pnwmom]

13. Oh, yes, the African Americans and Latinos who support her are just too ignorant

and misguided to know that they have been manipulated and discounted by her.



That's what you think. I think minority voters have their own opinions and can make up their own minds who to support. And so far, they like Hillary a lot more than Bernie.

[WillyT]

14. First Of All... Who Do You Think Is Being Forced To Drink The Water In Flint... And...

45 times Secretary Clinton pushed the trade bill she now opposes

Link: http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/15/politics/45-times-secretary-clinton-pushed-the-trade-bill-she-now-opposes/

Black Leader in House Denounces Bill Clinton’s Remarks

Link: http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/24/black-congressman-denounces-b-clintons-remarks/?_r=0

The Red Phone in Black and White

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/11/opinion/11patterson.html

You want me to continue ???

[pnwmom]

18. The black voters in Michigan are smart enough to know that a Rethug governor,

not a Democratic former Secretary of State, was responsible for appointing the City manager who made the decision to save money by drawing water for Flint from the polluted river, and not to spend money on pollution controls.

And that it was the Rethug Congress in Michigan that enacted the law allowing the governor to eliminate the elected government in Flint and replace it with the Governor's hand-picked City Manager.

And you're resorting to posting articles from 2008? Guess what? It's 2016. Hillary's had eight years to heal the wounds that occurred during that campaign. And she has.

I think I'm smelling some desperation here. . . .

[WillyT]

22. The Black/Latino/Muslim Voters In Michigan Are Smart Enough To Know Who's On Their Side...

And laughing about the poisoning of a city...



Your political desires apparently cloud your judgement for humanity.

Link: https://www.google.com/search?q=flint+michigan+water+problem&biw=1024&bih=638&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwinyPnwh5fKAhVBKGMKHRd4ArIQ_AUICSgE

[pnwmom]

23. Hillary's on their side on this as much as Bernie or Martin.

This was all due to a Rethug Legislature, a Rethug Governor, and the City Manager he appointed.

Which you know.

And I'm not laughing at the suffering people in Flint, Michigan. I'm laughing at you.

This is a really bizarre line of attack you're taking here -- trying to link a former Democratic Senator from NY and former Secretary of State with Flint Michigan toxic drinking water caused entirely by decisions made by the Republican government in Michigan.

All because you know Hillary is doing better among minority voters than Bernie.

It should be beneath you.

[Tanuki]

47. Why are you trying to link Clinton with the poisoning of Flint? How incredibly dishonest.

You know damn well that GOP Governor Rick Snyder and the "emergency manager" he appointed are to blame for this tragedy. If you are truly ignorant of this, and not just trying to mislead and to exploit the poisoning of a generation of children to cast undeserved shade on Clinton, you owe it to yourself to read this:
http://www.eclectablog.com/2015/10/the-colossal-failure-and-scandal-of-the-snyder-administration-in-preventing-the-lead-poisoning-of-flint-residents.html


As for your 7-year-old citation of James Clyburn's reaction to Bill (who is not the one running for office) Clinton, perhaps you should also educate yourself about Clyburn's current, positive views of Hillary:
http://thegrio.com/2013/07/05/key-obama-backers-in-08-now-sound-ready-for-hillary/

"Some of the most important critics of the Clintons during the 2008 campaign, instrumental in helping Barack Obama win the Democratic primary, are now openly praising the ex-president and former first lady, suggesting Obama’s network may enthusiastically embrace Hillary Clinton if she runs in 2016.
....
Now, Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina, perhaps the most influential black Democrat in Congress, is downplaying any tensions with the Clintons. In 2008, he told the New York Times there was an almost “unanimous” view among African-Americans that the Clintons “were “committed to doing everything they possibly can to damage Obama to a point that he could never win.”

“I’m as comfortable with Hillary as with Joe Biden. I’m very comfortable with both of them, love both of them,” Clyburn said in an interview with theGrio. He added of 2008, “I don’t think there was anything to forgive.”

[1StrongBlackMan]

79. (Black folks) have been Manipulated and discounted by the clintons for decades ,,,

There you go again. Do you read the stuff you write before you click the post button?

[Number23]

87. ...

[1StrongBlackMan]

90. Amazing, huh? This has to be performance art ...

because it would seem to be impossible to be so unaware.

[uponit7771]

123. +1

[uponit7771]

122. WOW dude!!! Really?!! We've been manipulated!?

[WillyT]

16. ...

[pnwmom]

21. Oh, wow. And he's made a huge difference in Bernie's standing there, right?

Because Killer Mike on Stephen Colbert matters so much more than the decades Hillary's been spending getting to know African Americans in the South, and giving them a chance know her.



Like the Deltas. Who do you think will have a bigger effect on the election. Killer Mike? Or 200K Deltas?

I'm betting on the Deltas.

[WillyT]

25. I'm Sorry... Didn't Mean To Offend... Are You Black ???

I'm not...

But I tend to listen to others to formulate my opinions.

[pnwmom]

26. No, but I have family members who are. And I listen to them, too. n/t

[WillyT]

27. And Curiously... So Do I... Black And Latino...

[1StrongBlackMan]

80. Now THAT has got to be the funniest statement you have made ... ever.

[AgingAmerican]

35. Wow you folks really ARE scared

THIS SPACE LEFT INTENTIONALLY BLANK

[1StrongBlackMan]

78. Well ... He's starting up a HBCU Barn storming Tour. That might help. eom.

[pnwmom]

82. An HBCU tour makes a lot more sense than Cornel West. n/t

[1StrongBlackMan]

83. He's going to be there, too. So ...

one step forward - one (or two) back.

[Number23]

89. I was about to make that same point but you did it much better

More than half of America's black population lives in the Dirty South. Of the four quadrants of America -- South, Midwest, East Coast, West Coast -- MORE THAN HALF of black people live in one section.

Some of these people around here need to think about that next the next time they turn up their noses at Southern Democrats.

[Art_from_Ark]

15. So who's going to lead the charge?

Colonel Yosemite Sam?

[WillyT]

17. Do You Realize How Bad That Sounds ???

[ucrdem]

20. I don't think WaPo likes her

but, yeah.

[BlueCaliDem]

30. WaPo doesn't like any strong Democrat - with a few journalistic exceptions.

I believe Hillary Clinton will do fine in Iowa and New Hampshire, but she'll definitely strengthen the firewall in South Carolina and Nevada.

[Recursion]

41. No, how bad does it sound? White southern Democrats basically don't exist now

This is the entirety of the racial gap between Clinton and Sanders: Clinton is popular among Democrats from the South, which is the least white region of our caucus.

[fleur-de-lisa]

70. "White southern Democrats basically don't exist now"? Sure they do.

Most larger cities in the south and most southern college towns are chock full of white Democrats. It's the hicks in the sticks, in sparsely populated areas, who are white republicans.

My state, Louisiana, just elected a Dem Governor, though he is pro-gun and anti-abortion. But at least he's much better than that moron Bobby Jindal.

[Recursion]

71. Wouldn't that be awesome if that were true?

Sadly, no. Your state couldn't even keep Landrieu in office. (And look how Senegal did before you say Landrieu was too conservative.)

[fleur-de-lisa]

73. Wow, that was silly.

[ucrdem]

19. Super Tuesday, the night they drove ol' Bernie down

and all the people were singing . . .

[BlueCaliDem]

31. I sure will be.

We need a strong Democrat in the White House if President Obama's presidency is any indication how badly Republicans will be in Congress, even IF they become the minority in the Senate in 2017. We need a Democrat they (silently) respect and fear. The Clintons are known for hitting back twenty times harder when attacked. That's what we need.

I'll never forgot how one reporter on MSNBC spoke about how ashen John Cornyn became (the only hold-out against Hillary's nomination to Sec. of State) when, on her way to a bathroom break during her confirmation hearing, she passed him as he stood by the door, and she paused and looked up at him and said something along the lines, "The Clintons have a long memory. You don't cross a Clinton." Cornyn went visibly ashen, but she'd already continued on her way. When the hearing began again, he cast his Yea vote.

The reason Republicans are so frantic to attack her now is because they're terrified she'll win the nom and then the General. They have NO such fear of Sanders, hence the lack of opposition research by our so-called media who either focus on Trump 24/7. Only when there's something negative to report on Hillary Clinton do we hear them mention her. And not a single time have they reported negatively on Sanders. They've received their orders: stay mum about Sanders, attack Hillary Clinton every chance you get, give Trump all the free publicity he can handle.

[ucrdem]

37. Agree completely.

I thought letting Sanders into the race as an Independent was a grotesquely bad idea, and it appears it was, and I'll be very glad to see him exit. Agree on the media too. If Sanders didn't have help he'd probably be trailing O'Malley which by all rights he should be.

[BlueCaliDem]

42. Thanks!

Yes, it was a huge mistake by the DNC to allow Sanders to run for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. He'd been a staunch Independent/Socialist all throughout his career. On the other hand...I can understand the DNC's p.o.v.

Sanders has voted 98% of the time with Democrats, making him more of a Democrat than Webb or Manchin, even if he shouts from the roof tops so all his supporters him him, that he isn't.

[Kentonio]

76. Why in the hell would you want ANY leader in office who uses threats of retribution like that?

That's not strong, that's unscrupulous and ill principled. It's exactly the reason so many people tripped over themselves to endorse her before teh race had even started, because they were worried about payback further down the line if they didn't.

[Hekate]

108. We'll get the rest of the words together by Super Tuesday night...

[comradebillyboy]

28. Does Hillary really need saving?

Her situation looks pretty good to me. She seems to be closing in on Bernie in NH and holding her lead in Iowa. All she needs to do is keep meeting the people and demonstrating her competence.

[BlueMTexpat]

56. Same here! :) eom

[Starry Messenger]

81. Agreed.

[BlueCaliDem]

32. Hillary Clinton doesn't needs saving, but she needs that firewall to stop Sanders in his tracks.

And that will happen come Super Tuesday.

[Betty Karlson]

33. So we all agree that the north is going to ditch Clinton?

Expectations are being lowered every day, guys. This bodes well for team Sanders.

[pnwmom]

34. Nope. The South will be voting before much of the north, and could decide

the election by March.

[Betty Karlson]

36. So now the north doesn't even matter anymore?

Is that because it will ditch Clinton? Just like the millennials don't matter anymore because of their preferred candidate?

[pnwmom]

38. I don't like that either. I think the whole set-up stinks. Two heavily white states,

Iowa and New Hampshire, have an undue influence by going before all the others, while Washington D.C. has to wait till the bitter end, in late June.

[Betty Karlson]

39. Yes, let's throw race into the conversation again. No reason needed.

Personally, I resent it that hetero-majority states get to vote first.

When argued into a tight spot, play the race card? That is right on par with "Wall Street must be able to finance my campaign, because 9/11 and a gender".

[pnwmom]

40. People who use the phrase "playing the race card' are dismissing the

reality of race in America.

Very poor form.

P.S. Which states are not hetero-majority? Or is this just another way of mocking people with concerns about racial justice?

[Betty Karlson]

43. Twist my words and twist again. your use of "concerns" is the real disrespect:

because you only voice it when you are out of counterarguments.

Are you concerned about PoC? Vote Sanders: contrary to Clinton, he is not sponsored by the prison industry, which disadvantages and kills PoC in disproportionate ways.

[pnwmom]

44. Wrong. Hillary has called for the end of the private prison industry.

hillaryclinton.com

End the privatization of prisons. Hillary believes we should move away from contracting out this core responsibility of the federal government to private corporations, and from creating private industry incentives that may contribute—or have the appearance of contributing—to over-incarceration. The campaign does not accept contributions from federally registered lobbyists or PACs for private prison companies, and will donate any such direct contributions to charity.

[Betty Karlson]

58. * yawn* Yet one more "cut it out" moment. She is SPONSORED by the prison industry.

Her campaign may not accept sponsorship from that industry, but what about her PACs? Can you say: loophole?

Her actions against it are likely to be as tough as her stance on Wall Street: triangulated re-allocation of the loopholes.

[pnwmom]

59. No, she isn NOT. And Bernie can't stop any PAC from operating on his behalf either.

He is legally prohibited from interacting with a PAC. Not accepting money from them doesn't prohibit them from doing whatever they want to support his candidacy.

Did you ever think of that loophole?

[betterdemsonly]

46. I think cozying up to Rahm will harm her with black voters

BLM is clearly turning away from her in favor of Bernie. Many Southern States are caucus states, and in those states Bernie will have an advantage.. Also the country isn't just North and South. There is also the West and she is doing poorly with hispanics, and fight for 15 activists.

[Gothmog]

48. The primary contest will be over after Super Tuesday

Sanders is still not polling well with POC. There are only four states with 90+% white voting populations and they are not enough to get Sanders the nomination. Texas alone has almost twice the number of delegates as Utah, Iowa, New Hampshire and Vermont

[antigop]

49. and I'm sure the Texas Dem Party is equally supportive of both Bernie and HRC, isn't it?

How many Clinton/Castro 2016 bumper stickers did they make?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251521230
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251521230#post29

[Gothmog]

63. I will ask the Chairman next week when I see him

Do you want a couple of Clinton/Castro 2016 bumperstickers.

BTW, Congressman Castro is the chair of the Texas Democratic State Party Convention in San Antonio in June. It will be a fun event

[antigop]

65. Your response tells me all I need to know about the Texas Dem party. Yep, it does. nt

[Gothmog]

66. Do you want to predict how many delegates that Sanders gets from Texas

Texas has a threshold of 15% to get delegates that applies both for the statewide delegates and the delegates from each state Senate District. Sanders may not break the 15% threshold in a number of state senate districts.

[antigop]

68. add +1 to the "Bernie is unelectable" meme counter. nt

[Gothmog]

85. What number is that counter up to?

Please provide an accurate count of this counter

[antigop]

69. Beware: Someone Is Trying to Convince You That Bernie Can't Win nt

[Tanuki]

74. That "someone" seems to be the voting public, as reflected in national polls!

[antigop]

75. HAHA! The polls that Mook says are "unreliable"?

http://time.com/3920153/bill-clinton-hillary-campaign-adviser/

Mook also dismissed recent poll numbers that suggest Hillary Clinton’s favorability numbers are slipping. According to a CNN poll published last week, 57% of Americans think the former secretary of state is not trustworthy. “A lot of the public polling is not very reliable,” Mook said. “I don’t pay a whole lot of attention to it.”

[Gothmog]

84. BTW, these bumperstickers were printed two or so years ago before anyone had heard of sanders

[antigop]

86. It still tells me all I need to know about the Texas Dem party. nt

[Gothmog]

88. Texas has three times the number of delegates as Iowa and NH combined

Sanders is only polling well in four states with 90+% white voters: Utah, Iowa, New Hampshire and Vermont. Texas has almost twice the number of delegates as these four states combined

[antigop]

91. add +1 to the "Bernie is unelectable" meme counter. nt

[Gothmog]

93. What is the current count on the "Bernie is unelectable" meme counter?

Inquiring minds want to know

[antigop]

97. HAHA! You should know! nt

[Gothmog]

99. You are the one who keeps posting this weak response

You are the one keeping count. Why will you not tell us what the count is.

Seriously, Sanders will not be the nominee unless and until he can show that he is viable. I like Sanders and according to that online poll his positions are closer to my views than Clinton's position but I do not believe that he is viable. I have read a great deal on this area including the articles from Sanders' campaign manager and I have yet to see a good explanation as to Sanders' viability. Heck, Sanders own campaign manager was telling the press that he would be happy if Sanders was deemed to be a serious candidate and did as well as Jesse Jackson did in 1984 Sanders is running to push his issues. Even Sanders campaign manager admitted that Sanders' main goal is to be considered to be a "serious" candidate. I keep reading articles hoping to see some signs of viability for the Sanders campaign in the general election. Here is a thread that is a good example. See http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251667157 if you read the last three paragraphs of the article cited in that thread, Sanders campaign manager does not outline a path to the nomination but a path to be a "serious" candidate.

If all goes according to plan, Sanders will have won enough delegates by mid-March to be a serious contender for the nomination. That would signal a shift for Sanders; it would be time to court the establishment. “Then we have to offer fundamental assurances to party leaders who say he’s a socialist. He’s been in the Congress 25 years and his program is not to replace the current system with socialism, it’s to revive the middle class.”

Sanders’s outsider campaign has been likened to Jesse Jackson’s insurgent campaign in 1988—it wasn’t until the Wisconsin primary in April that Michael Dukakis defeated Jackson. But Devine thinks the more apt analogy to today’s politics is 1984 when the combination of Gary Hart’s insurgency and Jackson’s coalition of minority voters together almost beat Walter Mondale. “Jackson never received support from the institutional party, but he demanded respect. If we register, as Jesse Jackson did, millions of people, that would be a huge lift for the party in Senate races.” And for whichever Democrat reaches the magic number of delegates next year to secure the nomination.

The idea that Sanders is good for the Democratic Party is a hard lesson for Clinton to appreciate in the heat of battle. But he’s got voters fired up and ready to go, and Democrats need that energy.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/10/12/bernie-sanders-s-strategist-this-is-how-we-win.html
The apparent goal of this campaign is not for Sanders to be the nominee but to be considered a serious candidate who might almost beat Hillary Clinton.

This article is silent on what Sanders intend to do in a general election contest in that it appears that Sanders campaign manager does not expect that Sanders will be the nominee.

Again, Sanders needs to come up with a good explanation as to how he is viable in a general election if he wants to expand the base. I keep looking for a good explanation and I have yet to see anything close.

[antigop]

103. add +1 to the "Bernie is unelectable" meme counter. nt

[Gothmog]

109. Dismissing the concerns of a significant number of Democratic voters is not good way to win votes

A large number of Democratic voters have concern that Sanders is not viable in the general election and will not support Sanders until they see some evidence of viability. It seems that the Sanders campaign does not believe that it has a good explanation as to how Sanders is viable in the general election and so do not care if these voters do not vote for Sanders.

Keep up the good work of telling Democratic voters that their concerns about Sanders being electable are not significant and that such voters should support Hillary Clinton.

[antigop]

110. add +1 to the "Bernie is unelectable" meme counter. nt

[antigop]

112. keep up the good work of telling people everything they need to know about the TX Dem party.

[Qutzupalotl]

113. So Sanders is running to tackle issues

and Clinton is running because she wants to be president. Thanks for clearing that up.

[antigop]

98. Oh, and say "hi" to DWS and thank her for moment of candor re: Bernie! nt

[antigop]

92. and it still tells me all I need to know about the TX Dem party. nt

[Gothmog]

100. If Sanders wants to be competitive in Texas, he might think about appealing to POC

Latino and African American voters are two of the key demographics in the Texas Democratic Party voting base and Sanders will not do well unless he expands his base of voter beyond the very narrow base currently supporting him. One way to appeal to African American voters may be to explain how Sanders is viable. Viability is very important to African American voters. Sanders is not going to appeal to voters in key demographic blocks without some real evidence of viability. http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/09/bernie_sanders_presidential_campaign_what_would_it_take_for_the_vermont.html

. For as much as black Americans might like his policy positions—which fit their enthusiasm for a stronger safety net—they’re also strategic voters, not ideological stalwarts. Electability is key, and as a consequence, they tend to back the establishment choice: Al Gore over Bill Bradley; John Kerry over John Edwards. On occasion, blacks will back a factional candidate, like Jesse Jackson in 1984 and 1988. But Jackson had the reverse problem—he couldn’t win enough whites.

Again, Sanders would have a stronger campaign if someone could provide a good explanation as to viability and I doubt that Sanders will make significant inroads with the African American community without this proof.

[antigop]

104. add +1 to the "Bernie is unelectable" meme counter. nt

[antigop]

106. did you say 'hi' to DWS and thank her? nt

[Hiraeth]

50. Don't bet the house on it.

[Gothmog]

94. If you feel so strongly on this bet, then open Irish brokerage account and bet on Bernie

Sanders is in double digits now as to his chances of being the Democratic nominee http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination/ Since Dec 22, Sanders' chances of being the nominee have doubled from 5% to 10%. These are still good odds for you but not as good as on Dec. 22.

These returns on an investment of Clinton being the nominee are starting to get more attractive.

[Hiraeth]

115. interesting. thanks.

[antigop]

51. Beware: Someone Is Trying to Convince You That Bernie Can't Win

http://www.commondreams.org/views/2015/12/15/beware-someone-trying-convince-you-bernie-cant-win

The theme is to desperately convince us that Sanders can’t win. They repeat it over and over, even though Sanders polls as well or better than Hillary Clinton does against every leading Republican candidate.

Behind this effort is an alarmed corporate old guard that still runs the Democratic Party establishment and their allies in the corporate think tanks and the media, with a special nod to NBC/MSNBC, which is owned and operated by General Electric and Comcast.

[CoffeeCat]

55. And this is why in Iowa Bernie has gone from .8 to within single digits

...because as these campaigns spread their messages, and as voters learn as much as they can about the candidates--they realize that Bernie can win; and that he's got an amazing message and detailed plans to get this country on the right track.

Inevitability and media favoritism may give you the advantage, but that strategy is risky because supporting someone because they're "inevitable" is shallow support. All it takes is a stellar opponent with a great message and visible support--and your inevitability erodes like dust.

That's why Iowa and NH are so important. If Bernie wins in Iowa, Clinton's inevitability meme is done. If he wins IA and NH, then this is a horserace between two equal candidates.

The race then becomes about who is best to lead the country. At that point, no one can claim "inevitability" with a straight face.

[pnwmom]

62. I didn't need corporate media to convince me that Hillary has been attacked for decades

unfairly attacked, by the corporate media in collaboration with the Rethugs, and that she is a progressive i can strongly support.

[Hekate]

111. Goodness. That's your entire contribution to this thread. Weak sauce.

[tazkcmo]

52. Save her from what?

Herself?

[pnwmom]

61. From the results of an unrepresentative caucus of a small fraction of voters in

an unrepresentative state followed by a primary in a state even more unrepresentative of the US.

We should have more diverse states as our earliest primary states, not Iowa and New Hampshire.

[sadoldgirl]

57. Wow, now she has to be saved?!?

[MoonRiver]

64. Well I don"t think she will need saving!

Iowa looks good and she just moved ahead in NH. But of course I am delighted the South is so strong for her!

[Jim Lane]

67. Super Tuesday delegates are 57% from Romney states

It's a mostly conservative electorate, which is why it's more fertile ground for Clinton than for either of her progressive opponents, but there some other states voting, too.

By my count, the Super Tuesday states that went for Romney in 2012 have a total of 563 delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Those that went for Obama have 427.

The Romney bloc, where Clinton is favored, is mostly the South. Romney also carried Oklahoma (sometimes considered South, sometimes not) but lost Virginia.

One factor that affects delegate totals is that both parties award bonus delegates for states carried by their most recent nominee. For example, of the Super Tuesday states, Massachusetts has 11 electoral votes while Georgia has 16, indicating a much larger population. Nevertheless, Massachusetts has 121 delegates to Georgia's 112.

[Ken Burch]

95. Why does she NEED to be saved?

It wouldn't harm anyone other than the rich if we nominated someone else.

[pnwmom]

96. Some of us think she has a stronger background than the others

and will make a fine President.

I haven't swallowed the Rethug crap that they've been serving us for twenty years.

[Ken Burch]

102. I haven't swallowed any of that either.

That's why I never supported the unnecessary right-wing takeover of OUR she was part of and has never apologized for. We never needed to throw labor and the poor and poc under the bus to win in '92 and '96.

I'll support her if nominated, but I just can't see any real justification for settling for the most conservative person we could possibly nominate this year...the one who will make sure we continue to be a party of the suites, rather than the streets.

[pnwmom]

107. The most conservative we could possibly nominate this year?

She's less liberal than Bernie (but still rated as "hard core liberal" on ontheissues.org), about the same as Martin, and you're obviously forgetting Biden, Chaffee, and Webb.

ontheissues.org

[Thinkingabout]

101. In 1992 Bill Clinton lost both in Iowa and NH, he came back to win the nomination and the

election against an incumbent. I would like to see Hillary make a fifty state sweep, maybe so or maybe not.

[karynnj]

119. two differences if HRC loses both

1) two different men won Iowa and NH. Harkin, a favorite on, won Iowa and Former MA senator Tsongus won NH.

2) 1992 had many viable candidates. What the super tuesday of mostly Southern states did was to make Clinton, a media favorite, the frontrunner. However, he did not sew up the nomination until June. ( In 2004, after NH, the media had many cover stories on Edwards suggesting he as a "Clinton without bimbos" could do the same ) We have only three people on the Democratic primary ballots.

You could also note that HRC is still very much the favorite and the surprise is that an article like this is out thre. It shows Sanders has, incredibly, gone from someone labeled fringe to someone the frontrunner needs a fire wall to defeat.

[Thinkingabout]

120. Just watching the polls, in fact Hillary has not lost either Iowa or NH.

Point was the last candidate to lose both Iowa and NH went on to become president, and against an incumbent.

[Hekate]

105. Unintended consequences are sometimes too funny for words