PredictWise - 2016 President - Democratic Nomination - Hillary 88% - Bernie 11%

[Alfresco]

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination/

Key data on this page includes: Prediction Markets (Betfair, PredictIt, Hypermind), Polling (HuffPost Pollster), Bookie (OddsChecker).

[LexVegas]

1. 11% is being very kind. nt

[pangaia]

2. In the 2004 ALCS, the Red Sox were down 3- zip to the Yankees.

They even got blown away in the 3rd game 19-8.
In the 4th game the Red Sox were down 4-3 going into the bottom of the 9th.. The odds were 82% NYY winning the GAME.. just the game ! 18% BOS win.

The rest is history.
After coming back to take 4 straight, the Sox went on to sweep the Cardinals in 4 games in the World Series.. Their first World Series in 86 years.
This is considered the greatest comeback in sports history.

Next year will be 72 years since the last "Democratic Socialist" won the presidency. :&gt

[brooklynite]

4. And the Washington Generals once beat the Harlem Globetrotters...

..."anything can happen" is a pretty weak argument.

[oasis]

43. There can be no escape from "The Curse of the Bernbino".

[Donald Ian Rankin]

36. Surprisingly, 18% chances come up nearly one time in five.

So "they said there was only an 18% chance of this happening, and look, it happened!" doesn't actually damage someone's reputation as a predictor much.

However, 88% chances come up nearly eight times in nine.

[NurseJackie]

3. Is this the Bernie "surge" we keep hearing about?

[Alfresco]

7. I don't hear surge much anymore. It's a feeling in the air now. :-))

[stonecutter357]

5. K&R!

[Alfresco]

6. 2016 President – Winner - Democratic 64% - Republican 36%

[Godhumor]

8. Keep in mind, PredictWise is about to get very weird

A lot of investors are now picking up Bernie on the very cheap in case they can score a massive windfall on Iowa. By the same token, they're going to be picking him cheap for overall election, in case he wins Iowa and pops his ask price for a quick turnaround buck.

For someone, like me, who follows predictive markets closely, I tend to ignore them the last month before the first vote. This is the time investors act more like gamblers than anything else.

[Alfresco]

9. Makes sense. I'll be watching. Thx.

[Godhumor]

11. Already started in the Iowa Market

2 days ago Clinton was at 88.

Late last night it was down to 71.

This morning back up to 86.

A lot of investors picked up Bernie futures last night. This morning other investors picked up Clinton futures thinking a % in the 70s was cheap enough to score a turnaround.

People are gambling, and I do mean gambling, right now.

[FloridaBlues]

10. But...But 11% is a massive lead over 88% !

[Alfresco]

12. YooHoo...

[Alfresco]

13. Reality to Bernieland >>>Bernie is going to lose. Face it now, you'll feel better when it happens.

[Fawke Em]

15. Reality to Hillarians >>> We're not going away.

And, if she's the nominee, then she'll lose. Badly.

[Alfresco]

17. I don't expect you to. Just prepare yourselves.

[Fawke Em]

19. I have prepared.

I'm voting Green if Bernie's not the nominee.

Won't vote for your corporate-owned war hawk. She might have my son killed (and I'm really not joking about that).

[2pooped2pop]

38. but we all lose if Clinton wins

She will either hand the presidency to the republicans with her scandals or even if she wins the presidency, we all still lose. The world knows this. They have better news sources and can see more clearly what is going on in this country. They want Bernie too.

[Fawke Em]

14. Predictwise: Thought Bush would be the nominee

http://www.newsweek.com/jeb-bush-donald-trump-prediction-markets-polls-366122

Meh.

[Alfresco]

16. That was 8/26/15.

[Fawke Em]

18. Yeah - and they have been proven WRONG.

That was my point.

[Alfresco]

20. Jeb is currently at 11% at PredictWise same as Bernie.

[Fawke Em]

21. You're missing the point.

They've been wrong before. They can be wrong again. They aren't a crystal ball.

Jeesh.

[Alfresco]

22. Don't think so. There is no path to the nomination for Bernie.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

39. NO! NO! A MILLION TIMES NO!

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of how probabilities and predictions work.

Predictwise may well have claimed that, at the time, on the available evidence, the most likely outcome was a Bush victory.

The fact that is no longer the most likely outcome, or indeed the fact of a Bush defeat if that happens (as seems likely, but not certain), will *not* mean that they were wrong.

If I put two black balls and a white ball into a bag, and declare that there is a 66% chance that the ball you pull out first will be black, and only a 33% chance that it will be white, then even if you get the white ball first (which, obviously, will happen one time in three) it will *not* mean that I was wrong.

Evaluating how accurate someone's estimates of probabilities of events are based on only a single observation of each event is a hard mathematical problem. Roughly speaking, the best way is to give them a score based on summing some function of the probability they assigned to the observed outcome; better predictors will end up with higher scores over time. There's a differential equation you can solve to work out what good scoring functions are; one good choice is log(1-p).

But just because an event does not occur does *not* mean that someone who assigned it a high but non-certain chance of occurring at some point in the past was wrong. 10% chances really do crop up one time in ten.

- Your friendly neighbourhood evangelical mathematician.

[Alfresco]

23. Today it's Hillary 89% - Bernie 10%.

[MineralMan]

24. What? Only 8:1? Hmph!

[Alfresco]

25. There's room to grow :-)

[Betty Karlson]

26. So Sanders's chances have more than doubled in a month?

PredictWise must have sensed a trend...

[Alfresco]

27. If that's the way you want to look at it. :-)

[JRLeft]

28. Hillary winning has Wall Street doing this.

[Alfresco]

29. More like this.

[JRLeft]

30. By donating to her? Dude please!

[Alfresco]

31. The first animated gif is as accurate as the next.

[JRLeft]

32. The first one is true.

Wall Street isn't worried about Hillary Clinton's plan

October 08

 

NEW YORK

Hillary Clinton unveiled her big plan to curb the worst of Wall Street's excesses on Thursday. The reaction from the banking community was a shrug, if not relief.

While Clinton proposes some harsher regulations, she stops far short of what more populist Democrats like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren want to do to Wall Street.

Sanders and Warren think the big banks should be broken up. Clinton does not. It's a big divide in the Democratic party.

"We continue to believe Clinton would be one of the better candidates for financial firms," wrote Jaret Seiberg of Guggenheim Partners in a note to clients analyzing her plan.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/08/investing/hillary-clinton-wall-street-plan/

Follow the money cuzzin.

[Attorney in Texas]

33. Predictwise is projecting the odds as of today. The odds change as the campaign progresses. For

example, until recently, Predictwise had Jeb! as an overwhelming favorite long after his polling had collapsed:




Now, Predictwise has caught up to the polling and shows Jeb! had flatlined:



If Predictwise has Sanders at 11%, that is to be expected because a betting market is always going to lean hard toward the favorite and downplay the underdog. If Sanders beats expectations in Iowa or New Hampshire, he'll rise at Predictwise.

[Alfresco]

34. I understand how it works, thanks. :-) Jeb today 11% - Bernie today 10% :-)

[Attorney in Texas]

37. In 2008, betting markets had Clinton as an overwhelming favorite three weeks before the Iowa caucus

[Alfresco]

40. I am confident history will not repeat. We will see.

[Attorney in Texas]

41. All of us Sanders supporters are COUNTING on your confidence in this regard. We need your help

because we cannot beat expectations without your help raising those expectations for Clinton.

Obama and Sanders could not get credit for beating the "inevitable" primary candidate without the help of the Clinton campaign reminding voters every day that Clinton's nomination is inevitable and resistance (in the form of actually voting) is futile.

[Alfresco]

42. Classy..."Confidence is contagious. So is lack of confidence." - Vince Lombardi

[Attorney in Texas]

44. So is overconfidence.

[Alfresco]

45. Yes it is. :-))

[William769]

35. I'm surprized it's even that close. nt