NBC IA: Clinton 48, Sanders 45

[firebrand80]

NH: Sanders 50, Clinton 46

Brand-new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of IA (LVs) for the Dem race:
Clinton 48
Sanders 45
O'Malley 5

Brand-new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of NH (LVs):
Sanders 50
Clinton 46
O'Malley 1

This is via Mark Murray's Twitter account

[CommonSenseDemocrat]

1. Sanders looks like the favorite to be the nominee

[NurseJackie]

3. Oopf!

[MoonRiver]

4. I know.

And they say Steve Jobs was a master of "reality distortion."

[tecelote]

19. I know.

Poor Hillary. She's losing ground. The margins are getting slimmer every day.

[NurseJackie]

2. Looking Good! (Go, Hillary!)

It would be nice to win NH outright, but it's interesting to see what a difficult time Bernie is having... right there in his "own back yard". If he's having so much difficulty there, in an area that's exceedingly friendly to him, imagine how difficult it will be for him throughout the rest of the country. After all, NH certainly isn't very representative of this country, is it?

[cali]

5. It's Hillary's backyard every bit as much as his, dear nurse.

[synergie]

7. You might want to take a look at a map that hasn't been drawn by a Republican campaign. eom.

[cali]

11. You might consider tha hilly has spent more time there campaigning

than Bernie, by far: 1992. 1996. 2008. 20015. Not rocket science, jacks.

[synergie]

32. Than Bernie has while living and serving as the Senator in the state next door? No, it certainly is

not rocket science, but it is geography and fact based assessment of reality, but I see why you're having such trouble.

And, "jacks"? Is that name calling, poor literacy or some other fallacious attempt to pretend you didn't say something completely ridiculous?

[NurseJackie]

10. Have they changed the state borders? Where is NH now located?

[cali]

13. Gee, you mean hilly hasn't spent more time in in NH campaigning than Bernie?

She has.

[NurseJackie]

16. Gee, so you're suggesting that NH his her "back yard" because she campaigns there? Good grief.

Does that bother you that she's campaigning there? Actually, I already know the answer, so never mind. (I'm glad she's not taking votes for granted. She's in it to win it!)

Go, Hillary!

[cali]

18. I am schooling you. I am instructing you that NH is even more familiar with her

[NurseJackie]

20. That's why she's remaining competitive in a state that should have been a "gimme" for Bernie.

Taking no vote for granted! Working to win! Hillary will be the nominee!



Go Hillary!

[JonLeibowitz]

31. So if geography is a factor as you say, why isn't Bernie leading in NY then?

Could it be that those states which begin to pay attention first to the candidates realize that Sanders is a very strong choice for our nominee?

[synergie]

33. Gee, you've never been to Vermont or NH, or seen or understood a map or things like tv markets huh?

It's kind of sad how hard you cling to meaningless second counting while you miss basic facts. Ask anyone in NH or Vermont how well they know their local senators and reps, and who they pay attention to, then you might begin to understand how silly you sound.

Bernie should win NH, it would be kind of sad if he did not. That has kind of been expected for quite some time.

[Fawke Em]

36. That's spin.

New Hampshire isn't really his backyard. NH and Vermont are worlds apart in their attitudes and media markets.

http://boulter.com/nh/barnicle.html

http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2007/11/vermont-and-new-hampshire-geographic-twins-cultural-aliens/

[leftofcool]

6. Looking good for Hillary

[HerbChestnut]

21. You can't be serious

She had a 20 point lead in Iowa a month or two ago and now they're tied. The momentum is clearly in Bernie's favor.

[Blue_Adept]

25. That was a different poll

The 19+ lead was NBC/WSJ polling with their own methodology. This one is NBC/Marist, which uses a different set. They're not exactly comparable.

[HerbChestnut]

26. It's actually NBC/WSJ/Marist

[Godhumor]

27. I hate to be "that guy", Herb, but the movement in IA is not significant. NH, however...

Last NBC/WSJ/Marist poll was in September:

In Iowa, Hillary moved from +5 to +3, which would be considered within the margin where it is impossible to see if an actual change has happened.

NH, however went from Sanders at +14 to +4. That is a ten point swing and would be considered significant.

Don't get me wrong, I don't like Iowa being that close, but this is not out of line with what they've reported before.

[HerbChestnut]

30. Where are you getting your numbers from?

The last NBC/WSJ/Marist poll I can find is on HuffPollster and RCP from 9/30 where the results in IA are reported as 47/36 and 33/28 respectively (the difference presumably due to Biden's inclusion).

Okay looking at that I can see what you're saying, but you have to remember that those polls included Biden and were taken before October when Hillary expanded her leads everywhere.

[Godhumor]

34. The argument would be that Biden didn't change the dynamic in Iowa but did in NH

I've never liked reallocating support by second choice; it is a messy proposition.

Now little ol' cynical me might say that NBC wanted both races in the MOE to claim how accurate they were if both states ended up close regardless of who won.

But that would never happen, right

[HerbChestnut]

35. Of course not *wink wink*

[ucrdem]

14. Remember November 92?

When comeback kid Clinton unexpectedly took NH and went on to win the WH?

[ucrdem]

9. O'Malley 5 in Iowa?

That's news.

[in_cog_ni_to]

17. Yes indeed! It's Bernie's

Last edited Sun Jan 10, 2016, 03:30 PM - Edit history (1)

For the taking!

Go Bernie!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

You can feel the shift. People have had enough of the greed of the Oligarchs.

[dinkytron]

24. Agree. And a margin that close is very promising for Bernie. He has not peaked. Folks are

still warming to his message. He is still being discovered. The media blackout on him might have paid off in weird way. To the contrary, it feels like Hillary has peaked. I really don't see her drawing any more supporters than she already has. I also think this is the wrong year to be the "establishment" candidate.

ON EDIT --- If I am totally wrong, I will still vote for Hillary with pleasure. I love her, Bill and Chelsea. I just don't feel she's the one, this year.

[Betty Karlson]

29. Something tells me this poll has been padded in favour of Clinton...

His advantage in NH may now be in double digits, and he may even have overtaken Clinton again in Iowa.

[catnhatnh]

22. How do I embed

the audio of the theme from "Jaws"???

[NCTraveler]

23. It is playing in the background of my mind.

While confident, momentum and just the reality of an early victory could be big.

[PatrickforO]

28. I've often said that much of Bernie's support

isn't showing in the polls. But, if his supporters show up AT the polls, he'll roll over Clinton. It won't even be close.

[Iliyah]

37. I'm calling it - win win for IA and NH

for HRC!

[artislife]

38. Aw, you are so cuuutee.

innocent.

[DemocraticWing]

39. What happens to O'Malley support in precincts where he gets below 15%?

That might actually decide Iowa.

[firebrand80]

40. Good point

My guess it goes to Sanders

[betterdemsonly]

41. If this is nbc they are probably undercounting Bernie's numbers!

Now watch how the networks will suddenly stop covering Trump so much.