There is one very interesting thing in the NBC Iowa poll, for both candidates
And it is this:
Clinton led 52-40 with respondents who were verified as being registered Democrats (Names are on registration lists).
Sanders led 51-42 with respondents who are not verified as being on the registered list.
Among voters who participated before, she leads 51-42.
Among never caucused before Sanders leads 51-41.
The implication is very clear--Sanders has the majority support of the never voted in a Democratic primary before crowd (Shocking, I know that independents and youth like him), but is in real trouble if they don't actually show up.
But the most interesting part is that NBC weighed the never voted as almost an equal likelihood to the has voted in the likely voter screen; the first time I have seen a pollster do that.
So they've set up the population parameter for the poll to show that Bernie had energized his supporters enough to end the pattern of non voters being very unreliable showing up.
It is actually an interesting gamble for NBC; they're saying the fundamentals of the race are different than in other cycles. Either they're right in that regard, and one of the earliest to call it, or they're about to be very wrong (As in, their basic topline assumption for collecting poll data is invalid.).
I have to give them credit, though. It turns out this is not a safe prediction, as I had cynically thought, they're actually putting it all on the line. Good for them for not playing it safe by moving with the herd.
= new reply since forum marked as read
NEVERMIND that Martin O'Malley Rails Against Deportations At Families First Presidential Forum.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251991105
Nothing like 'national' media, I guess.
Go Team Hillary!
But it ain't a race without a photo finish and NBC is sponsoring next week's debate . . .
Not that it matters of course . . .
