reminder of how Iowa Caucuses went In 2008

[Robbins]

they were held January 3 so the race now is the equivalent of december 2007

Obama 38%
Edwards 30%
Clinton 29%

only 1 poll had the final results right.The polling done by Iowa's most respected pollster.In december 2007 there were different
polls having each of top 3 ahead.

If you would have said In december Clinton was going to come in Third most would have said you were crazy.Many believed if Clinton lost she would have finished close 2 to either obama or Edwards.

Obama 8% ahead of closest rival In Caucuses was surprise.

The Idea now that Obama's victory In Iowa wasn't a shock is BS.

4 Important comparisons to Bernie

1:He had large crowds too which many dismissed
2:Young people came out for him which many also dismissed
3:He had a lot of support on internet which yet too was dismissed
4 undits back then said Clinton would win nomination and that he had no chance

I see attempts at rewriting history of the 2008 race.

[firebrand80]

1. Agree with most of this, however

There aren't enough similarities between Obama and Bernie in the rest of the early states. Bernie has won parts of the Obama primary coalition, but not all of it.

[artislife]

3. Maybe that is true...about the coalition

But as a Latina, the vote was for what I thought he could bring to the presidency (and I love him and his family hard to this day..but he is behind the midnight raids and deportation of my people at this very point in time....smh...tears...) but the excitement of him was that he was African American. I will tell you, the excitement for h from the minorities won't be as deep and they will not show up in the numbers that they did in 2008 and 2014. They just won't.

The person on the left who brings empassioned supporters is Bernie.

[jeff47]

4. One does not have to have the exact same coalition to win.

Some 2008 Obama voters and some 2008 Clinton voters wins you the caucuses just as well.

[firebrand80]

5. True

I use the most recent dem primary as a way to try to understand what's going no now, because IMO it's the best comparison we have.

In the future I'll probably be calling younger voters and liberals "the Bernie coalition."

[swilton]

2. It's going to be interesting to watch is all that I can say

One difference that I've heard pointed out but don't know whether or not it's valid is this:

Unlike the 2008 election, when students turned out for Obama, this caucus is later in the calendar year and the millennials who are a big part of the Sanders' appeal are back in school....Anyone care to comment on how much of a difference (if any) this makes?

Thanks for posting this!

[ieoeja]

6. It was/is also the nature of caucuses.

Low information voter named Liv walks in to the caucus planning to vote for Clinton. The talking begins. Liv learns a lot about Obama/Sanders that pleasantly surprises him. But an African-American/Socialist-Jew can not possibly win, so Liv is still hanging with Clinton. Then he notices the big crowd going for Obama/Sanders and realizes that he *is* electable.

Liv, who told every pollster in the country -- it's Iowa; everybody gets polled -- that he was going to vote for Clinton ends up voting for Obama/Sanders instead.

In a primary Liv would have walked in, cast her vote for Clinton, and walked out having based his vote on ... just because.