2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDueling Polls in Iowa and NH.
Polling is all over the place in Iowa, which isn't really surprising. It's hard to poll in caucus states, so different polls with different methodologies will get very different results.
At this point, you can look at polls that show Hillary ahead or Bernie ahead. What does it all mean?
Not much, really. Now, we wait. The candidates will be doing their final pushes in that state, and in NH as well. Soon enough, the voters will participate in the only poll that matters and we'll have our answers.
As difficult as it is to be patient, that's the only thing to do. We'll find out. The reality is that both states will be close, which will mean that the limited number of delegates from those state will be divided pretty evenly. Neither has a huge delegation going to the national convention, so it probably won't make much difference in the actual results this summer.
Keep an eye on the March 1 Super Tuesday primaries. They're the ones that are going to really make a difference and probably the ones that will indicate pretty clearly who the Democratic nominee will be. Neither camp should be celebrating a good poll result, when the other side also has a good poll result. Mixed results just mean that we'll have to wait until the actual day of the caucuses or primary election to find out.
ram2008
(1,238 posts)They all show marked increase in Bernie support and decline in Hillary's support. The trend is clear.
cali
(114,904 posts)MineralMan
(146,254 posts)How much? Hard to say.
BlueMTexpat
(15,365 posts)hard-fought races in these two states. I've always believed that they would be close.
In any event, ALL candidates - including MOM, bless him - are working very hard and taking absolutely nothing for granted. That is great for all of us Dems and ultimately for all US citizens. It shows how very serious our candidates are.
The final poll on voting/caucus day is literally the only one that counts. But the media do love a horse race.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)After months of stability, Bernie is clearly making gains.