5 Major Signs that Clinton is Losing Now

[GreatGazoo]

1. Nearly lost Iowa -- the inside the media story out of Iowa was that many there believed Sanders had turned out more support. at best it was a squeaker. Without the "win" in Iowa, the whole narrative falls apart and the story becomes Sanders gaining support as his visibility grows and as more people start paying real attention to the choice in front of them.

2. Post-Iowa staffing and message changes --

One source who is close with both Hillary and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, said, "The Clintons are not happy, and have been letting all of us know that. The idea is that we need a more forward-looking message, for the primary — but also for the general election too… There's no sense of panic, but there is an urgency to fix these problems right now."
...
From the beginning, [the campaign's top pollster and strategist Joel] Benenson was frustrated that he was forced to split his time between defending his boss on emails and defining a path for her candidacy.

http://theweek.com/speedreads/604429/hillary-clintons-campaign-reportedly-unhappy-hillary-clinton

3. Fighting to Retain your Base when You Would be Expanding It -- Team Clinton is fighting to hang on to women and blacks when, if she had solid support there, she would be trying to expand her reach. In recent exit polls we see younger women and younger blacks are more open to Sanders than their older counterparts. Telling women the will "go to Hell" if they don't vote for Hillary shows the desperation.

The risk of a bandwagon campaign is that people start to feel insulted and stereotyped as this man's reaction shows:

Meeting Sanders had convinced him. It was “not a presidential candidate talking to a state representative or an old white man talking to a young black guy,” he said, but “a man talking to a man about things they are passionate about”.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-times/us-election-2016-hillary-clinton-loses-grip-on-young-black-vote/news-story/87fa74a04c5ca3093af0c09dddd19d76

4. Attempted Steal the Bern -- Adopting your opponents lines (as much of them as you can with a few modifications like her $12/hr min wage) shows that the speaker believes or knows outright that their opponent's positions are more popular than the ones they would put forth.

5. Trying for 3 Weeks to Stop the Momentum -- From the wake-up call that was Iowa to right now, they are still trying to stop the momentum. Trying to stop the momentum confirms one thing very strongly -- your opponent has momentum and you don't. They got a lot of MSM to tout the supers as being locked in to HRC and then pointed to victories in SC and elsewhere as evidence that the momentum was not real.

Colorado, Maine, Nebraska and Kansas just disproved that one.

[djean111]

1. This "women are her base" stuff makes this woman retch.

I think her demographics are more like people who like war, people who like fracking, people who like Wall Street - you know, people who are cognizant of the actual issues. But wait, I am cracking myself up.

[GreatGazoo]

6. My own sense is more that her supporters see her as unfairly attacked

on everything. There is so much noise around HRC and she IS a lightning rod for GOP criticism and faux scandals that one reaction is to just shut it all out.

I think there is a segment within her supporters that identifies with her as a woman in a man's world who is fighting for all women and is unfairly attacked. Their bandwagon campaign plays to that -- it is a women have to stick together kind of appeal.

[djean111]

8. The irony is that many of her stances on issues are horrific for women. And children.

And that "women stick together" thing - nah. This woman will not ever do anything against my conscience, just because I am a woman.

[jwirr]

23. I look at myself as a whole woman with many interests and

needs and having a woman president is at the bottom of the list. My family has a lot of needs and they are all important. Bernie is a candidate that speaks to all those needs.

[Lorien]

27. Exactly. I would never consider race, sex, or sexual orientation when considering voting for anyone

if I did I would be racist, sexist and homophobic!

[Paper Roses]

29. It is not about gender, it is about reality. We need a change in direction. I agree with you.

This old timer has seen it all. Been there, listened to that.

I've had it with the same old baloney. We must redirect our country. For me, there is only one choice. Not just for me but for my family and my country.

Go Bernie!!!

[PyaarRevolution]

50. Oh come on.

Just close your eyes, let your mind blank and think of your vagina. /sarcasm

[RiverNoord]

24. I agree.

I don't understand the psychology of it, but Sec. Clinton has a great many supporters who respond almost instinctively to any criticism as an unfair attack.

It could be the product of years and years of right-wing media practically institutionalizing attacks on her. Hearing people you loathe verbally abusing someone you like over and over again probably sets you in a particular mindset. Then, when substantive criticism of that persons candidacy for high office comes from other sources, I figure, for many, it is interpreted as 'they're right-wing nuts too' or 'how can they be so disloyal after she's taken so much punishment over the years.'

If there's something to that, it should inform us as we communicate with her supporters.

[FuzzyRabbit]

38. You are correct.

I think you are right on the money.

[beltanefauve]

52. Good points

And re: the "disloyalty "angle, it amazes me how many posts containing quotes from Her Royal Highness herself, facts, and left-leaning opinion, caution us to shhhhh! because we're giving ammo to the Republicans.

[PyaarRevolution]

51. I agree with your second point but...

Would like to expand on it. I think there's a segment of women who grew up at the same time as Hillary and can strongly empathize with what you just said but it gets worse from there. That same segment thinks that, by that logic, they should have to work so much harder than a man to match them. That sentiment is sadly true but in trying to excel and pass their male competitor they try to emulate the man's behavior, especially his bad qualities. This is the WRONG way to excel in the chosen field, even if it's a more masculine industry like politics.
Hillary trying to act tough has seen her do some truly stupid things, like twice supporting U.S. backed coups(I'm NOT calling it the polite term of regime change).
I wish more men in politics would embrace their Yin and I think Bernie does that to some extent.

[GreatGazoo]

56. I give Hillary credit for being tough and don't think it is an act.

Going around the world as a female Sec of State, to countries that don't accept women as equals alone should be proof of that. Beyond stuff like that I don't think gender has much to do with it.

I think the line between being perceived as too tough and too weak is extremely thin for a President. I think Barack does extremely well with it. His calm steady delivery serves him very well. Some people want to apply different rules to women and that makes that line even thinner if not invisible.

Side note: It seems to be the Clinton camp that called 'foul' last night when Bernie said "excuse me" and I am not sure that that would have been done or expected to play if Clinton was male.

[Gwhittey]

7. Wait a second

people who like war, people who like fracking, people who like Wall Street

OMG that is a Republican

[SomeGuyInEagan]

21. One would think ...

... and yet, here we are.

[Gwhittey]

45. Yea

Democraticunderground.com you would think this was a site with democrats, silly me.

[AtheistCrusader]

35. If you identify people by platform positions, yes.

Which, ironically, is the only means I have to reconcile what people say they are, against what they actually are.

[peacebird]

25. Me too...

[Demobrat]

30. Unfortunately I know women who like her because she's a woman.

Why pay attention to issues when you can make an easy decision based on gender? It reminds me of the people who voted for Bush because he talked like somebody they could have a beer with.

[AtheistCrusader]

36. Apparently a psychopathic megalomaniacal genocidal monster is the sort of person one can have a beer

with.

We need a better filter.
At least Bush The Dumber MKII fell out of the race already.

[Demobrat]

43. A psychopathic megalomaniacal genocidal monster

who talks like a good old boy! Let's focus on what matters here.

[Carolina]

48. You are kinder than I am

I think they are willfully uninformed and don't care to learn anything about her record. Some also just want a woman but don't care that she's the WRONG woman

[djean111]

49. I supported Hillary in 2008, voted for her in that hubris-caused Florida primary.

This time - I did my due diligence, am appalled that I did not do more research in 2008 - how could I have supported someone who stands for war, fracking, cluster bombs, Wall Street, etc? To think that I would, eyes wide open, just because we both are women is insulting.

I have worked for and worked with some wonderful women, and some women who were complete and utter assholes. Gender is not even on my list of reasons to vote for a president. Or anything, for that matter.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

2. Her internal numbers must be telling.

That explains a lot about her debate performance. Interrupting, ignoring Anderson, refusing to stop talking, and generally acting like a spoiled brat.
Her pollsters told her she had to act more assertive and in control. Instead she came across as a real piece of work.
My partner is a big Hillarian. I, the opposite. As we watched the debate, even she said, "she needs to stop that. It looks horrible. Why be so rude?"

[Svafa]

13. I also thought it looked like she was playing defense last night.

[CoffeeCat]

3. Her and her campaign are very vulnerable

Hillary's campaign in Iowa hinged on her "electability" and her experience. No one realized that this election would be overwhelmingly about change and rooting out corruption and establishment politics.

All she has left is that she is the most "electable." That's not support based on passion for her candidacy or her ideas. It's soft support based on a very hollow foundation.

Furthermore, her "untrustworthy" numbers are at an alarming high--69 percent of voters do not trust her. Her negatives are very high too. Much higher than Bernie's.

All of this--is why we will see the continued push for Bernie to exit the race. She is vulnerable, and they damn well know it.

She's got this FBI investigation looming over her campaign, dripping out a steady stream of bad news. The latest being that her IT guy was recently granted immunity to tell the FBI everything he knows.

The longer Bernie stays in this race, the greater numbers of people hearing his message. Furthermore, the states start to really favor him as the primary progresses. If he starts to win more states, her electability meme is decimated. Then, the wheels come off. We could see a surge of "buyer's remorse" which can happen with any drawn out primary.

That's why they'll pressure him to get out. Too bad. It's not going to happen.

[GreatGazoo]

10. They are running a bandwagon and brand name campaign which matches up with Trump's bandwagon cmpn

I'm sure they would have loved to side-step the primaries altogether and just go into a GE race where Trump is so scary and horrible that she never has to do more than say "I'm a Democrat and I'm not crazy."

They didn't seem to have a good strategy to stop Sanders or even answer to the donor/transcripts/quid pro quo stuff. And now they are stuck playing the 'you're a woman so you HAVE to vote for her' game while they hope that Sanders' message stops getting through the MSM filters.

[Populist_Prole]

37. That's my observation of her supporters I know

They're not third-wayers like the ones here, and they don't at all dislike Sanders. They mean well but they aim so low. "Go with a ( perceived ) winner". There's really no policy positions they are passionate about voting for her other than she's not a republican and they don't want to rock the boat.

The only time I've heard someone express some excitement stated "She's a GREAT politician!". Yay. Not exactly the most solid of metrics.

[Fast Walker 52]

63. totally agree

[BernieforPres2016]

4. I wanted to read the Australian article you referenced but it was subscriber only. n/t

[GreatGazoo]

12. It let me in the first time but I see now what you mean...

here is a link to a cached version

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Vju4fCvBGp4J:www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-times/us-election-2016-hillary-clinton-loses-grip-on-young-black-vote/news-story/87fa74a04c5ca3093af0c09dddd19d76+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

[BernieforPres2016]

16. Thank you. Good article. n/t

[GreatGazoo]

18. Here is another with more detail on exit poll data

http://coreyrobin.com/2016/03/02/super-tuesday-march-theses/

Corey references simialr analysis from this guy:
http://mattbruenig.com/2016/02/28/is-elias-isquith-literate/

[BernieforPres2016]

19. That's a fantastic chart

Further demonstration that Hillary's numbers only go down and that Bernie can win people over with exposure.

It would be great if Bernie could show a trend like that with older blacks but it doesn't seem likely. Voter turnout among millenials of all races is going to be critical, and with social media I think it's possible. I am very encouraged by the stories and pictures from Kansas, Nebraska and Maine over the weekend.

[beltanefauve]

53. There are regional differences

We haven't had enough Northern industrial or Rust Belt states vote yet. Bernie's message may resonate more. We shall see.

[PyaarRevolution]

54. I was at the Caucus in KS.

The person who gave the Hillary speech where I was, it was terrible. I talked to another person and said the speech was so bad I was surprised some of her supporters didn't cross the line. I would've been embarrassed. As it was, I talked to someone after the Caucus who said she was majoring or had just take
Let me sum it up. First the lady talked about where she came from and the opportunities America had. That part was fine but then next she basically implied that things would be different with a woman in charge. HELLLLOOOOO?! Margaret Thatcher anyone? Lastly, from what I could hear she explained that she could afford her college tuition and some people couldn't and that was the reality so basically the meme was "Can't afford college? Tough shit". As it was, I talked to someone after the Caucus who said she was majoring or had just taken Public Speaking and that the lady hadn't prepared. I definitely agreed with this but she also thought the cheering when the woman said "Hillary, Hillary, Hillary!" went down the more she spoke.

[starroute]

15. It seems to be one you can get to through google

Search on "hillary clinton loses grip on young black vote" and it will be the first result that comes up. You can then click through without hitting the paywall.

This works for a number of the major online newspapers.

[thereismore]

5. For a campaign that's winning in the delegate count they sure seem to be genuinely unhappy about

something!

That something is the heavy sense of foreboding that winter is coming!

[Gwhittey]

11. But But the Polls

The poll show her winning every state from now on *



















*: Based on Age group >65(75%)55-65(15%) 55-25(10%) 25-18(n/a) via Random Phone Calls

[Viva_La_Revolution]

9. they spend all their time triangulating...

while Bernie just has to focus on getting his message out. It must be exhausting for them.

[GreatGazoo]

14. They were ready for attacks from the Right but not for Bernie

She's like a tennis player with no back-hand.

[BernieforPres2016]

17. Bernie kept smashing overheads last night

and Hillary was running around 10 feet behind the baseline trying to keep the ball in play.

[MisterP]

22. and reassuring donors that she's a good investment

[Ikonoklast]

31. I would like to hear the chatter behind the closed doors on Wall Street.

The Kochs are already pissed off and grousing about the money they are wasting without getting what they paid for, I wonder if the Dimons and Blankfeins are wondering if they too backed a loser.

[jwirr]

20. Very good analysis. Thank you.

[Lorien]

26. The Bernie media blackout has gotten even worse, and still he hasn't lost momentum

just imagine what his numbers would be like if he got equal coverage?

[GreatGazoo]

40. Perhaps they are building on what was learned by Howard Dean and Barack

Howard Dean got a lot of MSM exposure early. Some on the Right worried that he was "the Democratic Reagan" but perhaps Dean's reliance on the MSM, even as he utilized internet organizing, set him up to be killed by them. I have been thinking a lot about the "Dean Scream" lately and looking for how the MSM will try this on Sanders.

Obama took the internet farther. He seemed to come in under the radar for many but college kids were really pumped up about his chances and they proved to be correct.

Sanders is winning despite the lack of MSM coverage and their Swiftboating. His campaign has not relied on the MSM and the payoff may be that he is Dean Scream proof now.

[HassleCat]

28. I don't know about losing

It's more like not winning, or not winning quickly, or not winning decisively. She was counting on having it all wrapped up by now, and her supporters reminded us that Super Tuesday was the day we would shovel dirt onto Bernie's coffin. Then it was last Saturday. Now I guess it's March 15. As long as Hillary remains ahead by a significant margin, and has the super delegates under control, she is not losing. As long as Sanders remains a mathematical possibility, she is not winning, either. If Sanders should somehow get ahead, unlikely but possible, look for the super delegates to start breaking ranks. That would be a big, big deal.

[Ellipsis]

32. Michagan should tell the tale. n/t

[AikenYankee]

33. K&R nt

[C Moon]

34. Not sure why they think Clinton will take California so easily...

I live here and don't know anyone who is voting for Clinton. It's all enthusiastic Bernie voters that I hear from. But then again, most of my friends are musicians and artists.

[beltanefauve]

44. Lots of older

Establishment Dems here, not only the voters but the politicians too. Our Governor is in his '70s and doesn't want to see cannabis legal. (It's happening anyway ) Feinstein is around 78.Boxer is early 70's but retiring. Many of our Congress critters have been in office for decades. The state party is grooming younger office holders such as Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom, but they are already entrenched.

This is the same reason why Massachusetts( my former state) was supposed to be such a lock for Hillary: older,Establishment Dems. But Bernie came within under 2 points of beating her. There's still a lot of time between now and June 7.

[C Moon]

46. True. My older brother is also a long time Dem, as well as my sister and they are both

going for Bernie.
So I think California may be a closer race than most are thinking.

[beltanefauve]

55. I'm no Spring chicken either

In fact, I'm a white female over 50, a "Hillary " demographic, but I can't vote for her.

[noiretextatique]

58. The Bay Area will go for Bernie, not sure about LA

And the rest of the state

[Betty Karlson]

39. K&R for truth.

Great read.

[tarheelsunc]

41. 6. Delegate Count

Oh wait a minute, never mind!

[book_worm]

42. Nice Try, but at least your in there pitching.

[GreatGazoo]

57. Feel the Bern

[bernbabe]

59. you're

[Enthusiast]

47. Kicked and recommended to the Max!

Just imagine if there were no shenanigans!

[Duckfan]

60. If you were to tell me 3, 4, 5 months ago that Benrie would win.....

...Kansas, my first question to you would have been, "what have you been smokin?"

[Major Hogwash]

61. By the time we get to Pheonix, she'll be gone.

Rearrangement of an old Glen Campbell song.

[GreatGazoo]

62. Sign #6 (3/14) -- Trump now in MSM battle with Sanders

Trump is now (post-Chicago) attacking and smearing Sanders, thus giving the MSM his royal permission to talk about Sanders more.

The ultimate effect is to convince more Americans that the likely GE race will be Sanders vs. Trump. This is a major step in both breaking through the media's blackout and in eclipsing HRC. It vanquishes their old meme that 'Bernie can't win the primary.'

Since as the saying goes, "there is no such thing as bad publicity" by implication the worst thing is no publicity, or less publicity. The more Trump expects to see Sanders in the GE the more that idea will be propagated by the MSM.