From Reddit - Just look at this guys numbers! Bernie needed 57.86% of delegates and has cut that to

[in_cog_ni_to]

56.5%! I might have to join Reddit so I can keep track of this guy and his spreadsheet! Just look at his numbers! Bernie can do this!

[–]TheyCallMeBeef [score hidden] 2 hours ago

I have all the math for you! Sanders is expected to pick up 105 of the 142 delegates up for grabs Saturday. That's 73% of delegates! Before today he had to win 57.86% of delegates moving forward, after sweeping Hawaii, Alaska, and Washington, he only needs to win 56.5% of remaining delegates. This may not seem like much of a difference but with only 3.52% of delegates awarded today, this is statistically YUUUUUGE! The number of delegates Hillary needs to win went from 42.1% to 43.5%. What does this mean? Hillary went from being up 13.7% to just 9.8% in a day where only 3.52% of delegates were up for grabs! Let this sink in for a minute, there are 43.2% of delegates left to win! If we could cut Hillary's lead by 3.9% in just one day that was suppose to just be a bleep on the map, imagine what we can do before Wisconsin which is 10 DAYS AWAY! Wyoming which is 13 DAYS AWAY! And NEW YORK! New York is 24 days away which alone is worth 247 delegates, 6.12% of all delegates, twice as many delegates as today! I ran the numbers, and IF Bernie pulls 73% between now and April 19th, he will only be down 2 points (68 delegates). There will be 34.67% delegates left after New York. Currently he is down 45.1% (228 delegates) to Hillary's 54.9%

edit: Message me if you are interested in seeing my spread sheets

https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/4c2gs6/alaska_hawaii_and_washington_caucuses_results/

[nxylas]

1. Being somewhat math-challenged, my head is spinning

But even I can tell that this is good news. Is there really much chance of him winning New York, though?

[in_cog_ni_to]

2. I don't know. Maybe a NYer can chime in here.

He was born there, so...

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[nxylas]

3. I just don't want a repeat of the "Michigan mistake"

That is, getting overconfident after a victory, leading to massive disappointment when Clinton wins again.

[in_cog_ni_to]

5. Well, in any state that uses evoting machines, that will ALWAYS be an issue - unless

he has massive turnout and the corrupt PTB don't flip enough % of votes in the machines.

Though, I did read NY DUer post say Clinton is hated in the state, so who knows? Polls show one thing, people say another. He has 24 Days to campaign there...we shall see!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[Dragonfli]

8. There is another election fraud tactic at play which may make it hard to win NYS

I am (or was) A registered voting Democrat for over 35 years, but after some warnings I read online I checked to Find my Democratic party affiliation erased, making me no party at all, I immediately re-registered again as a Democrat (well before the deadline), only to be told by the election office worker, and her supervisor, that my party status will not take effect until after Nov.

There is something fraudulent afoot in NYS and it is no doubt intended to yet further disadvantage Bernie Sanders.

[jhart3333]

10. You need to lodge a complaint with someone.

You were fucked over by nefarious means. If lifelong Democrats are being disenfranchised in this way it needs to be known and dealt with. Maybe talk to the ACLU. IANAL but I think your civil rights have been violated. I say it's up to them to fix their damn computer glitch or fat finger entry or whatever they want to call it.

[artislife]

12. This is the crap they have been pulling

The great news is this type of voter fraud (and the only kind of voter fraud is the system against the voter) has been going on, but now there is social media focusing on it.

We are our own investigative journalists.

I hope you can get this viral and changed before the primary, let alone November.

[LiberalElite]

13. I switched registration

in March 2015 so I could vote in the Dem primary in April 2016 and it was the same then. It's the law. Changes in registration do not take effect until after the next election. FWIW I think it's ridiculous.

Here's an article from last October. The deadline to change parties to be able to vote in the NY State primary was last October 9.

http://gothamist.com/2015/10/06/democracy_bureacracy.php

snip

When your lawmakers spend their days doing the bidding of developers and large corporations, and only sometimes get arrested for it, it can be easy to forget that we live in a democracy. Even easier to forget: though the presidential primary is not until April 19th of next year, the deadline for changing one's party is this Friday.

An obscure bit of election law (Section 5-304) requires voters to change their party enrollment prior to the registration deadline for the general election in November the year before the primary, giving New York the earliest change-of-party deadline of the 11 U.S. states with a closed primary system. New York is also the only state among those 11 where the deadline doesn't fall within the same calendar year as the primary.

snip

[Dragonfli]

15. Well, besides being stupid, it also assures that when they cheat and change your party without

even informing you and against your will, you are left with no options to fight against the cheating.
Clever in an election fraud sort of way.

[yourout]

4. I'm not to optimistic about NY. Closed primary and already

Reports of Sanders supporters having their registration flipped and no way to Change it back.

Shit like this should be 10 years in the big house.

[lostnfound]

6. I agree

If we had open caucuses from here on, he would have a real shot. But there's too much opportunity for the establishment to interfere nod/or suppress votes.

[DhhD]

17. It like happened in Arizona? Compliants there are being looked into. And I believe the State

Legislature has a committee meeting tomorrow to look into what happened. And it my understanding there are civil rights complaints that are being looked in to.

[jhart3333]

18. Right on! Maybe that will give them pause when they try to pull this crap again.

[gsb54]

7. Keep bringing it here so we can know as well

[merrily]

9. Of course media is now adding superdelegates who have declared for Hillary, without

distinguishing in any way whatsoever between pledged delegates and super delegates. Anything to make it sound as though Bernie cannot possibly catch up, no matter what.

My local news this morning described a cute, and obviously tongue in cheek tweet by Bernie about the bird as "something he tweeted to try to prop up his message." Yeah, right.

Once this election is over, I will not watch a single msm news source. Not a one. Especially not MSNBC. They have each and all proven to me beyond any doubt that not a one of them is honest or objective or attempting to bring me news. They are all simply trying to drive this country yet further right, no matter what they have to slant or omit. Well, they can do that without my help.

[in_cog_ni_to]

14. I almost never watch corrupt corporate owned MSM , but tuned in this morning to see what Al Sharpton

had to say about Bernie's landslide victories yesterday and not one freakin' word about it! Not one! He completely ignored it as his network has been doing all morning by focusing on nothing but Brussels!

I see them all as bought and paid for corrupt criminal shills.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[BernieforPres2016]

11. Here is a good template you can use

You can change the projection by state by either moving the bar to the left or right, or by clicking on up/down arrows in the box that shows the percentage for each candidate. It lists the remaining states, how many delegates, whether open, closed, or semi-open.

I am not sure if this model will show up with the numbers I've played around with just enough to get Bernie a lead in regular delegates at the end, but if it does, or after you put in your own values, I think you will see just how large a task remains ahead. I think Bernie needs another win by a big margin in Wisconsin, i.e. at least 60%+ of the vote and hopefully 65% or more. Wisconsin is one of the few open primaries left.

I think the real challenge ahead for Bernie is New York on 4/19 followed by Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Rhode Island on 4/26. Rhode Island is semi-closed (must register as Democrat or independent to vote), all the others are closed primaries. Closed primaries have been tougher for Bernie and the last poll I saw had Hillary up by over 30 points in New York. Even if Bernie was to break even with Hillary across those states, they have such a large number of delegates that it means Bernie would need enormous margins of victory across the remaining states; he would probably need to win California by something like 65-35. Bernie really needs to win some net delegates across this April 19-26 group of primaries and I think that is going to be difficult.

Bernie needed the kind of landslide he got last night to still have a chance.

Here's a link to the model where you can make your own projections:

EDIT: I just looked at the link and it doesn't have the numbers I plugged in. Delegate totals to date are updated through yesterday's primaries (with estimates for the 3 yesterday) and the model has the rest at 58-42 Bernie. As I mentioned, you can go to all the remaining states and change the estimates and it will change the delegate totals by state and for the entire race at the bottom.

http://demrace.com/?share=F2dyLJi2

[LiberalElite]

16. NYer here and I'm NOT optimistic about this state. PLEASE people

the breathless hypothesizing of: Bernie wins here and then he wins there and then, and then...AND THEN!!!!! (virtual champagne corks popping) is IMO not helpful. Let's keep hope alive BUT our heads clear and our feet on the ground. We should know from Michigan that it hurts bad to fall to earth and then we're all so stunned it takes a while to get back to work. (End of lecture.)

[I_Make_Shirts]

19. Agreed. We do really need to really focus on NY and California.

Optimism is great-- it's what's propelled most of Bernie's campaign. We HAVE done really well so far, and I don't think it's unfair to celebrate that. But you're right, we do have to stay realistic as well. Right now, our biggest hurdles are going to be New York and California. They've got a ton of delegates between the two of them, and it's not looking like enough are going to wind up going to Bernie. We've got to get more active there, raise awareness, make sure everyone's properly registered and knows where to go to vote and when.

[Bubzer]

20. That certainly gives me hope. Now time to put hope into action.

[Duckfan]

21. I've noticed Nate "99% chance for Hillary" Silver has been very quite lately on his predictions

He's apparently busy recalculating that Hillary will win theory.