A cautionary note about the excitement over the polls showing Bernie up, way up over

[JDPriestly]

Clinton.

For example,

http://www.democraticunderground.com/128047251

As those who recognize my moniker know, I am a 100% Bernie Sanders supporter and volounteer.

But I want to warn about the poll numbers.

These polls assume that Joe Biden will run. The support attributed to him comes from vulnerable Hillary voters as well as from potential Sanders voters, but I suspect that they mostly come from Hillary's voters.

If Joe Biden does not announce, and I don't think he will, then new polls will be published that show Bernie down. It's kind of a psychological trick to include Biden, who has not announced his candidacy, in these polls.

When the reality becomes clear that Biden is not running (it's really too late if he is to participate in the first debate), then Bernie supporters are likely to be disappointed at the poll results. And the MSM is likely to gleefully report that Bernie is down.

Bernie will not be down. A great part of Biden's supporters will reluctantly go home and say they support Hillary.

But, here is the good news -- every person who claims to support Biden is demonstrating dissatisfaction with Hillary.

That means that every Biden supporter could be a potential Bernie supporter. The Biden supporters are breaking with the Hillary machine and the Hillary candidacy but not yet enough to say they support Bernie.

It's the Biden supporters we Bernie supporters need to reach with Bernie's populist, hones, authauntic message.

The point of this post: don't get discouraged if the polls show that Clinton's numbers go up and Bernie's go down when Biden disappears from the polls.

Just work harder because these polls show the potential for Bernie, and there is lots more out there that is not yet reflected in the polls.

I hope this post will not be misunderstood. I do not mean to suggest that Bernie is not winning hands down. But let's not get too euphoric because these polls are at this time not based on the reality about who is running. If you have questions about it, I will try to answer them.

[Ichingcarpenter]

1. From the analysis I've read Biden

Polls show a Biden presidential run would hurt Clinton, not Sanders

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/09/06/polls-show-a-biden-presidential-run-would-hurt-clinton-not-sanders/


4 Reasons Why a Biden Run Would Help Sanders

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/08/4-reasons-why-biden-entering-race-would-help-sanders

However I think the Biden talk is all talk ....... and a misdirection by the PTB
so, I don't take the talk seriously at this time with the polls.

[JDPriestly]

2. I agree. But what happens to the support now being attributed to Biden if Biden does

not run?

[Ichingcarpenter]

3. Look at the data on this recent poll

Trump beats Clinton

But

Sanders beats Trump

Trump beats Biden

Data Collected: 09/02/2015 - 09/03/2015
Release Date: 09/04/2015
Sponsor:
SurveyUSA America's Pollster


Be sure to look at Gender,Age, Race, Party Affiliation Data on all scenarios

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d950cadf-05ce-4148-a125-35c0cdab26c6


What the poll tells me is that the anti establishment candidates are
in vogue.


But its just another poll............ right?

[merrily]

5. If Hillary is the nominee, we'll be in big trouble.

All over reddit and facebook, you see posts saying I used to be a Democrat, then I changed to (Indie, Green, whatever), but I am going to change my registration back to Democrat so I can vote for Bernie in the primary. Those people will not vote for Hillary (or for Biden).

Also, many who are still registered Democrat see Sanders as their last hope. If he does not get the nomination, esp. after how the DNC, party politicians and the corporate media have been treating him, they are going to join the 63% who have already stopped voting. Then there are the 63% who don't vote, many of whom have been getting fired up for Sanders to the point that they will show up at the polls in the general, if he is the nominee. Are they fired up enough to show up for a primary, though? Dunno.

Whether we like it or not, the energy is on the Republican side. After 8 years of non-stop Obama hate and Democrat hate, they WILL show up at the polls, whether or not Trump is their first or last choice of a candidate. If Democrats cannot GOTV--every bit of it--for any reason, then, the apocalypse: a Republican House, a Republican Senate, a Republican majority SCOTUS and a Republican in the Oval Office.

[swilton]

30. ++++++++++++

I've also heard that Biden supporters would not go to Hillary or they'd be there already.

[JDPriestly]

7. Thanks. I just don't want Sanders supporters to be disappointed if there is a rise

in Clinton's numbers and a dip in the difference between Clinton's and Sanders once it becomes clear that Biden is not running.

Or if Hillary drops out of the race -- which is a possibility. Not a probability, but a possibility. The Republicans love to make up scandals about the Clintons. Who knows? One of them might actually stick eventually. Again, a possibility, not a probability.

But we Sanders supporters have to stay strong and be prepared no matter what is reported in the news.

[Ichingcarpenter]

8. The thing is no matter what

Sanders is help changing the face of American Consciousness and existing paradigms are being broken that won't return....... truth to power always does that.


n 1955, the American Friends Service Committee published a pamphlet entitled "Speak Truth to Power: A Quaker Search for an Alternative to Violence". As far as I can tell, this is the first use of the phrase. In the introduction, the author defines power and truth:

We speak to power in three senses:

* To those who hold high places in our national life and bear the terrible responsibility of making decisions for war or peace.
* To the American people who are the final reservoir of power in this country and whose values and expectations set the limits for those who exercise authority.
* To the idea of Power itself, and its impact on Twentieth Century life.

Our truth is an ancient one: that love endures and overcomes; that hatred destroys; that what is obtained by love is retained, but what is obtained by hatred proves a burden. This truth, fundamental to the position which rejects reliance on the method of war, is ultimately a religious perception, a belief that stands outside of history.

[JDPriestly]

9. Beautiful! Thanks!

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

12. I'll say there's a probability of some droppage.

Bernie can't keep rising and rising past 100%. At some point, he'll reach his likely levels, and then he'll just bobble around in polls, until and unless one or the other of he or Clinton makes a big enough mistake to drop precipitously. Clinton's been hiding out for just that reason - she can't make new mistakes if she's not in the public eye, not saying anything new that she hasn't said before.

But that's based on the assumption that she's winning, and she's the one bobbling along with the higher numbers. Once Bernie takes the lead, she's forced to risk more public appearances to try and win that lead back. Bernie's had to be out taking risks, because he's behind, he can't try to just coast it out.

So we've just got to hope his ceiling is higher than Clinton's, and with Bernie, we know that ceiling is more a matter of getting his positions out to the public, because the public likes them when they know them. Thanks to the near moratorium on mentioning Bernie, there are still a lot of people who know nothing about him except that he's an old guy with wild hair.

[Babel_17]

18. That's true, and the problem for them ...

That's true, and the problem for them is that Sanders was expected to have a low ceiling, and he'd hit it early. So by now his campaign would look anemic, and the Clinton campaign would look assured, and wise.

Woops, did not work out that way.

It's like in warfare, there are advantages, and disadvantages, to staying in the castle while the barbarians are outside. You stay safe and healthy, while they freeze and starve. Or alternatively, they grow in numbers and flourish, while you wonder why everybody inside is starting to look feverish and/or looking to bolt.

"The Clinton Castle" is of course a metaphor for a state of mind. But the Sanders campaign does actually physically resemble a rebellion that grows in strength as it exploits its free reign to roam the hinterlands and countryside. This battle isn't all on the TV, where you can send out surrogates to do battle for you. The Sanders campaign is physically moving around and directly winning over voters.

Ironically, it's an old style of campaigning that started the ball rolling for Senator Sanders, and which keeps the Sanders campaign rolling along. The Clinton campaign has been banking on its, uh, bankroll, and its ability to dominate the media.

The final bit of irony is that the Sanders campaign has the edge in cutting edge electronic communication, where money matter less. Social media is lending itself beautifully to the Sanders campaign. It's this fusion of the oldest, and newest, means of uniting a candidate and supporters together that will win the day for the Sanders campaign, and our party's platform.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

19. It's us, though.

Right now, Bernie's doing great wherever he actually shows up and gets his message out. But he can't be everywhere at once, and winning or losing comes down to how many of us spend time getting his message out, whether through social networks online, or handing out flyers at booths at events, or just talking to people one on one. I was at a store yesterday, chatting with the cashier while we checked out, and it turned out she was from Vermont, so I said I was certain to vote for Bernie, and she gave a mini rally for him, talking about the good he's done for Vermont and what a great guy he was. Now maybe that didn't change her vote or mine, which he already had, but there were people within earshot who just got a bit more of an intro to Bernie.

[Babel_17]

21. Yes, it's great that the Sanders campaign produces lots of advocates

Yes, it's great that the Sanders campaign produces lots of advocates, and not just likely voters.

[senz]

37. Your "Clinton Castle" metaphor & imagery brought to mind...

“There must be some way out of here,” said the joker to the thief
“There’s too much confusion, I can’t get no relief
Businessmen, they drink my wine, plowmen dig my earth
None of them along the line know what any of it is worth”

“No reason to get excited,” the thief, he kindly spoke
“There are many here among us who feel that life is but a joke
But you and I, we’ve been through that, and this is not our fate
So let us not talk falsely now, the hour is getting late”

All along the watchtower, princes kept the view
While all the women came and went, barefoot servants, too

Outside in the distance a wildcat did growl
Two riders were approaching, the wind began to howl

"All Along the Watchtower" by Bob Dylan, most memorably sung by Jimi Hendrix. Actually, it bears striking political resemblances to Bernie's campaign, as well.

[Babel_17]

41. Nice observation

Since were among friends, here's two videos.

Enjoy!

[senz]

43. Interesting, thanks.

[artislife]

34. I thought your OP was on target

We will have to gird our loins, so to speak if what you think might happen (and I do, too) and the H supporters going all out in their postings.

It is a long primary season and we have to be ready for the grounds to shift a lot. Especially if we remember 2008.

[merrily]

4. My politics partner, a pragmatic centrist, is Biden first, Sanders second and ABH third.

He says that he will not vote for Hillary in the primary, no matter what.

IMO, people are making assumptions about where the Biden support will go and said assumptions may or may not reflect reality, esp. since Hillary's aide has taken the Fifth. (And while DU can be in denial all day long about what that does or does not mean, if Hillary is the Democratic nominee, KNOW that Mr. and Ms. General Election Voter will go to the polls in November with that having been dunned into their ears for months.

[Hortensis]

28. Just read a pollster's musing that Biden and Sanders would split the white male Democrat vote

(of course), to the benefit of HRC of course.

Regardless, as far as girding up for disappointment, remember that once the race moves on from white New Hampshire and white Iowa, Bernie, good man that he really is, has to pull America's minority voters away from HRC. Last I heard, he polled 4% among South Carolina blacks... Doesn't deserve it, of course, and no doubt he'd pick up some black male support especially, but...his biggest challenges havn't even started yet.

[merrily]

29. Yes. every development this season can only help Hillary.

Sanders getting into the race was supposed to make her a better candidate, though, of course, he had no chance of getting anywhere. Now, it's Biden who is going to make her a better candidate 'cause, you know, until now, she's only been running against herself. And apparently, that's what been tripping her up. She does much better when she has serious competition, which Bernie will never be. That's why the DNC is giving him the red carpet treatment. No one is worried.

[Hortensis]

31. Well, if Bernie wins we'll get see how the full treatment from the GOP "improves" HIM. Let's not

forget to notice that HRC's is not the only campaign that is not attacking him -- YET! And there's so much the right and center, and even many on the left, will see as heavy ammo to turn against him.

Please keep in mind that the GOP really, really wants -- is praying! -- that they'll somehow miraculously face Bernie in the general. ITM, they are carefully holding back $100 billion or so worth of fire...

And one might also remember, btw, that the GOP will hold the House in 2016, that the Senate and a bunch of governorships are up for grabs, and that the next president will likely appoint 2, or even more, new Supreme Court justices...

[merrily]

32. True, though Ann Coulter says she does not want Republicans to run against him. She wants them to ru

against Hillary.

Once his name and platform get known, his numbers will rise more and then they will attack hard.

BTW, the Hillary campaign HAS been attacking him.

[Hortensis]

33. Personally, I think both Bernie and Hillary would slice and dice anyone in the GOP field, but

when did exposure of incompetence and ignorance, and of routinely lying to them, stop the GOP from gathering loyally behind whatever candidate they're presented with?

[senz]

38. The GOP considers their followers safely brainwashed, but

Bernie -- his "no fooling around," completely sincere, straight-talking demeanor -- and his message that cuts so close to middle and working-class realities, might be enough to break up the brainwashing for at least a part of the GOP base.

I think it's possible. He's that different.

[merrily]

40. When does anything stop most voters of any party from doing that?

Democrats think their candidates are inherently better, but, I imagine, so do voters from other parties.

We usually have to hold our noses to one degree or another, but, I imagine, so do voters from other parties.

Those things inhere in the system--and, to the extent they did not inhere, they were added or increased by both major Parties.

As for our chances in the general, I certainly hope you are correct. Time will tell. Meanwhile, I'm doing my best for Bernie.

[JDPriestly]

36. We have a majority of women in my group of Bernie volunteers.

[Autumn]

42. Here's a cautionary note for you. This is the Bernie Sanders group and it would

do you well to remember that and post accordingly. It's very clear to some what you are doing and you won't receive another warning.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1280&pid=47581

[Divernan]

6. I agree. Any Biden supporter who has expressed dissatisfaction w/HRC

has taken the first step to supporting someone other than Clinton. They're not committed to voting for anyone based on gender, or Third Way philosophy. They've demonstrated enough political independence to reject the "It's her turn!" or "I just want grandma to live long enough to see a woman president." or "If I support HRC, I'll surely benefit when I become part of the One Percent!"

The next 2 steps will be taken (1)after Biden rules himself out - and I think you are right, it's really too late in the game to jump in - and (2) after the first debate.

Without Biden, who ya gonna call? Who's your progressive daddy?

Everyone here knows the answer - Bernie Sanders.

[JDPriestly]

10. Precisely!

The Biden "support" is not really support for a candidate but rather a movement away from Hillary because Biden is not running. He has not yet announced, and he is a bit late to the game if he does. I don't think he will make a real impact on the primaries should he announce.

And I don't think he will mount a serious campaign. There is not time before February. He does not have enough spontaneous support.

Bernie has the support.

Hillary is just the well known and familiar. She is not the candidate that the majority of Democrats agree with, not in my opinion anyway.

[Thespian2]

11. Polls do not represent

the large numbers of voters who come listen to Senator Sanders all over the land...no other candidate can draw large, enthusiastic crowds...emphasis on "enthusiastic"...

[Android3.14]

13. Good caution

As the air empties from the HRC Campaign room, we should definitely recognize that we have a long way to go before the nomination belongs to Mr. Sanders, who will represent those who nominate him, rather than Ms. Clinton, who will primarily represent the 1%, a windsock of social issues, and politics as usual.

[Demeter]

14. Word of mouth is OUR media, and it's working

Tell people about Bernie, and watch their faces light up!

[GoneFishin]

15. Thanks for pointing this out. The take away from this is that we should never get complacent,

no matter what we are told.

[HereSince1628]

16. Looking at polls in late July and August with and without Biden running

Looking at the individual polls and the running averages at RCP, Biden support divided slightly less than half to Clinton, about half the remainder to Sanders and the remainder across OMalley, Chafee and Webb.

The recent media surrounding Biden's mulling entry shows similar impact.

One of the interesting things about Biden's trajectory on the polling reported at RCP is on that three occasions upward pulses in Biden have been related to downward slips in Clinton.

Only in the most recent rise in Biden's numbers is there a drop in Sanders running average. It's hard to say if that's a Biden effect as the Clinton surrogates undertook a round of serious opposition campaigning beginning in early August.

Significantly for democrats...none of the change in Sanders numbers seems to have yet forestalled the downward erosion of Clinton's polling numbers.

[Babel_17]

17. The longer they reside inside The Biden Zone

The longer they reside inside The Biden Zone, the unlikelier it becomes they'll reenter the Clinton tent.

While inside The Biden Zone they're opening their ears wider to hearing the downside of supporting the Clinton campaign. It's partly why they are where they are, they didn't like what they were hearing. Not supporting the establishment candidate requires actively swimming against the tide. To start supporting Clinton means reconciling your existing objections before you can do that.

I'm not seeing any lure, any hook, to draw Biden supporters into the Clinton tent.

On the other hand, they had a perfectly good upstart they could have turned to initially, namely Senator Sanders, but they didn't do that. So the resistance to that needs examination. Some are just going to be disposed to someone more traditional, and some are going to see him as an improbable long shot.

But basically they're all Democrats who are paying attention, and who aren't content with the status quo. And that's a group that Sanders is doing very well with. As Sanders gets more attention, and is portrayed as being more plausible, Biden voters will likely wonder who values their vote more, who is actually out there fighting to win it.

I was reading how some of President Obama's financial supporters were talking among themselves about how they didn't feel their support would be appreciated by the Clinton campaign. They felt like they wouldn't be making a difference. I'm assuming they got a different feeling when donating to the Obama campaign.

These early primaries and caucuses are on the intimate side. I think that Biden supporters will see acquaintances who've switched to Clinton, and acquaintances who've switched to Sanders. I'm guessing that the vibe of those who switched to Sanders will be, by far, the more contagious one.

[JDPriestly]

24. Thanks. Very intelligent analysis and explanation.

[questionseverything]

20. keep working to spread the message

bernie will need overwhelming numbers

[Cheese Sandwich]

22. You said exactly what I was thinking.

Especially the Iowa polls seem to have a lot of Biden support. When he drops out Hillary will get a boost.

I think the NH numbers are pretty solid though.

[leftcoastmountains]

23. I don't think you have to be concerned about Sanders

Last edited Mon Sep 7, 2015, 06:59 PM - Edit history (1)

supporters being disappointed. We are reminded every day in
the media that Bernie can't win. They name all the reasons.
They tell us that Hillary has already sewn up the nomination. It doesn't matter
what people want because she and the DNC have already decided
who their nominee for president is going to be. So we have to
knock it down and continue with our enthusiasm for him. We
have to push, pull, scream, yell to get him noticed not to mention
all the incredibly hard work he is doing with all the rallys and meetings etc.
It looks exhausting to me!

[JDPriestly]

25. Can't wait for the first debate.

Either the media and the DNC will try to fix the debate so that Bernie looks bad or Bernie will win hands down, and Hillary's support will decline even more than it has.

I have the feeling the DNC will try to pull a dirty trick at that debate. We shall see.

[senz]

39. I hope the Bernie campaign is ready for a fix or dirty tricks

in the debates. They could come in many forms -- vapid questions, odd ground rules, critical tone toward Bernie, audience stacked with Hillary supporters, avoidance of his strong suits, unexpected attacks from Hillary (like the ones toward Obama in 2008), speechifying designed to make him look bad, questions about his "wild youth," etc. He's a good strategist and not easily rattled, but I hope he has some pros who can envision scenarios and coach him through good, workable responses and help set up fair ground rules about lights, placement of podiums, etc. He knows the subject matter, thinks well on his feet, and his basic nature will come through -- a refreshing change from ordinary politicians, including Hillary -- so he will have those advantages going in.

I'm going to worry like a mother hen, even though Bernie knows far about these things than most of us.

[DinahMoeHum]

26. Agreed. The "Fat Lady" doesn't start to sing until January. . .

. . .when the caucuses and primaries start.

[mhatrw]

27. I've seen no numbers that suggest that Biden's current supporters'

second choice is Clinton rather than Sanders.

Every poll that has such numbers shows roughly a 50%-50% split when Biden is taken out of the race.

[ibegurpard]

35. I put no stock in polls this early

except when they are showing movement. Which they seem to be.