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Playinghardball

(11,665 posts)
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 02:22 PM Sep 2015

Can Bernie Sanders really beat Hillary Clinton in Iowa?

Bernie Sanders is on his third speech of the day, drenched in sweat, and losing his voice from calling for the overthrow of America’s “billionaire class”.

“Brothers and sisters, you are not living in a democracy; you are living in an oligarchy,” the leftwing Democratic presidential candidate tells an audience of Iowa supporters enthralled by his stinging attack on campaign finance and corporate lobbying. “People fought and died to defend American democracy and I will be damned if I am going to let them take that away from us.”

In theory, Sanders’s campaign for the presidential nomination in 2016 breaks all the rules of modern politics. He is angry, dishevelled and making no attempt to soften his message for the tiny handful of TV cameras that have shown up.

This unabashed “democratic socialist” from Brooklyn via Vermont, which he represents as an independent US senator, talks about class, corruption and the pathological greed of the rich. Yet the middle-aged, midwestern audience greeting him here in one of the most conservative states in the country cannot get enough of it. “Welcome to the political revolution,” Sanders says to another loud cheer.

The large, adoring crowds are not new. Sanders first captured national attention this summer by filling venues with up to 20,000 supporters in liberal bastions like Portland, Oregon.

A succession of opinion polls showed him catching and then overtaking the establishment frontrunner Hillary Clinton in the early primary state of New Hampshire – injecting sudden drama into a race that most pundits had initially decided was barely worth following compared with the excitement of the enormous Republican field, currently dominated by businessman and TV personality Donald Trump.

But what is new is the sight of Sanders challenging Clinton in Iowa, the first state to choose a candidate – in caucuses held on 1 February – and the scene of her humiliating defeat by Barack Obama in 2008.

In a shock poll this week conducted in Iowa for the Des Moines Register, Sanders moved to within seven percentage points of the former secretary of state, on 30% to her 37%. Only recently, Clinton commanded impregnable leads in Iowa of more than 50 points.

>snip<

Indeed, some of his ideas for fixing this broken American dream echo Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal in the 1930s – most notably a $1tn investment in public infrastructure, which Sanders claims would create 16m new jobs.

Other ideas draw inspiration from modern industrialised countries, including establishing America’s first system of paid family and medical leave, universal healthcare, free college tuition and public funding of elections.

All would be a radical departure for the US, and additional proposals to break up Wall Street banks and overturn free trade deals would no doubt cause consternation in corporate America were Sanders ever elected to the White House.

But, crucially, he argues that none of these ideas are extreme by international or historical standards – only in comparison with the unfettered turbo-capitalism that has taken root in recent US history.

“These are not radical ideas,” insists Sanders. “They are understood in virtually every major country on earth.”

>snip<
“Bernie is Bernie, he’s down to earth and he’s not for special interests,” explains Chris Uhlenhopp, a 67-year-old former labourer at the nearby Maytag appliances factory, which once employed 2,000 people. “I won’t go from Bernie to Hillary,” he adds. “I’d stay in bed if we had Hillary [on general election day].”

More here: http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/sep/04/bernie-sanders-revolutionary-rhetoric-resonating-conservative-iowa?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other



21 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Can Bernie Sanders really beat Hillary Clinton in Iowa? (Original Post) Playinghardball Sep 2015 OP
"tiny handful of cameras that have shown up." Eleanors38 Sep 2015 #1
It's more likely MSM is looking for footage that quiets the room. OEM Kokonoe Sep 2015 #17
AP did some NPR-type coverage the end of last week: Eleanors38 Sep 2015 #21
He can and will. retrowire Sep 2015 #2
I would crawl over flames and broken glass to see NAFTA and TPP gone. He would do it. roguevalley Sep 2015 #3
Joni Ernst is the first and only woman Iowa has EVER elected to the U.S. Congress. Hortensis Sep 2015 #4
LOL! Le Taz Hot Sep 2015 #6
Here you go, I think you are a little bit lost. We hosts have warned you repeatedly Autumn Sep 2015 #7
Thank you, Autumn!!! smokey nj Sep 2015 #9
I only regret marym625 Sep 2015 #12
I'd love to vote for a woman for president. fbc Sep 2015 #8
Every word you said x 1,000,000! Nt DiehardLiberal Sep 2015 #10
Bernie!! AzDar Sep 2015 #5
In Iowa? SmittynMo Sep 2015 #11
K&R! marym625 Sep 2015 #13
Hey, America join the process and FEEL the BERN---------to make it better turbinetree Sep 2015 #14
He will win if the media will cover him. WHEN CRABS ROAR Sep 2015 #15
He doesn't have to win Iowa kenfrequed Sep 2015 #16
Like a redheaded stepchild! YabaDabaNoDinoNo Sep 2015 #18
Bernie will win in Iowa... CoffeeCat Sep 2015 #19
"These are not radical ideas . . . " Major Hogwash Sep 2015 #20
 

Eleanors38

(18,318 posts)
21. AP did some NPR-type coverage the end of last week:
Thu Sep 10, 2015, 11:01 AM
Sep 2015

Extensive coverage of Joe Biden in FL, questions put to him concerning a possible race, the lackluster performance of H, possible support by the Jewish community in Miami, etc.

But no mention of the Jew already in the race.

No mention whatsoever.

roguevalley

(40,656 posts)
3. I would crawl over flames and broken glass to see NAFTA and TPP gone. He would do it.
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 03:26 PM
Sep 2015

I love this man. I want a future for my family that doesn't involve slavery.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
4. Joni Ernst is the first and only woman Iowa has EVER elected to the U.S. Congress.
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 03:31 PM
Sep 2015

Regardless of how the media and his supporters spin it, IT'S NOT ALL ABOUT IDEOLOGY.

So, yes, I'd say Bernie has a chance based on gender alone. I suspect (don't know) that the percentage of Democratic men in Iowa who'd prefer not to ever have a woman president is significantly higher than the national 54%.

BTW, note that this giant elephant in our liberal room is consistently ignored. What elephant? Virtually all minority women politicians, and all studies, say that not being a man is a much bigger handicap to getting elected than not being white. Still. The national media aren't just out to get Hillary -- they've always tried to take down female candidates for high office.

This matters because the Chris Uhlenhopps, and the press, could just turn our country over to the conservatives -- again -- in 2016. As Mr. Uhlenhopp likes to consider it, they're just too highly principled to vote for that Hillary woman.

Le Taz Hot

(22,271 posts)
6. LOL!
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 03:39 PM
Sep 2015

People would FLOCK to vote for Elizabeth Warren so, it's not the vagina that is the issue here. I like the way you accuse others of spin and, in the same sentence, spin that IT'S NOT ALL ABOUT IDEOLOGY. Uh, yes, it is. People have heard your candidate and they don't like her. You guys live and die by polls and the polls say that Hillary's negatives outweigh her positives. Now, spin that.

Autumn

(45,048 posts)
7. Here you go, I think you are a little bit lost. We hosts have warned you repeatedly
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 03:39 PM
Sep 2015

and you chose to ignore those warnings.
This is what you are looking for.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=forum&id=1107

 

fbc

(1,668 posts)
8. I'd love to vote for a woman for president.
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 04:11 PM
Sep 2015

As soon as we get a good female candidate. I would have voted for Elizabeth Warren in a heartbeat.

The massive wealth inequality in this country is THE issue of this election. It also happens to be an issue where Hillary Clinton is an enemy, not an ally.

SmittynMo

(3,544 posts)
11. In Iowa?
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 04:39 PM
Sep 2015

Time to take look at the bigger picture. Time to look at the entire country. Yes he can do it in IOWA. Piece of cake. We are witnessing and unbelievable following, like non I've ever seen before. Gee I wonder why?

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!!!!

turbinetree

(24,695 posts)
14. Hey, America join the process and FEEL the BERN---------to make it better
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 05:03 PM
Sep 2015

Honk ------------------------for a political revolution Bernie 2016



WHEN CRABS ROAR

(3,813 posts)
15. He will win if the media will cover him.
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 05:09 PM
Sep 2015

Now is the time for a real progressive populist movement, but the message needs to be clear and not overly complex and it needs to be repeated over and over to drive it home into the minds of the people.

Then Bernie will win

kenfrequed

(7,865 posts)
16. He doesn't have to win Iowa
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 05:14 PM
Sep 2015

He only has to come close. He already has New Hampshire and if he can get within a few percentage points of Clinton it would be victory enough.

But the fact of the matter is that he can win Iowa and he has a decent shot at it.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
19. Bernie will win in Iowa...
Wed Sep 9, 2015, 01:48 AM
Sep 2015

I live in Iowa, and believe me, I've seen this play out before in 2008.

If you look at comparable poll numbers from Fall 2007 and Fall 2015 (roughly 5 months before the Iowa caucuses), you see that Obama was doing WORSE against Clinton (in 2007) than Bernie is doing against Clinton (today).

Bernie is within 7 points. At this point in the Iowa caucuses, Hillary was ahead by a wider margin and Obama was third, behind Edwards.

Clinton has lost 20 points in Iowa, since May. Her campaign is free falling in Iowa.

Clinton has a great deal of history in the state of Iowa. We remember her VERY WELL from the last time she ran for President. She was a very canned, corporate and cold campaigner. She seemed unwilling to connect and engage with Iowa voters in 2008. She refused to take questions from Iowans and she left immediately after most of her impersonal speeches. That's just not how it's done here. We take our first-in-the-nation status seriously and we demand to speak with the candidates, ask them questions and have discussions with them. Most candidates, Democrats and Republicans, make themselves very available to us. It's actually a lot of fun--serious fun.

Clinton was the only candidate who seemed unwilling to engage with us. When she was criticized for being distant and when it became apparent that her polls were tanking (late Fall 2007) she started speaking at smaller venues and she even had a town-hall meeting with a Q&A session. Turns out, her questioners were her staffers armed with planted questions. Iowans didn't really appreciate that.

Also, after Clinton came in third in the Iowa caucuses in 2008, she criticized our caucuses and the process, the second she left our state. The Iowa caucuses are the most democratic process you can imagine. Precinct members meets in living rooms, high-school libraries, community halls--and we discuss the candidates. People speak and tout their candidates of choice. Then we divide into camps--according to who we are supporting. Then we vote by show of hands. The counts are tallied and several people call in the numbers to the central office. Seriously…it's amazing!

Iowans remember Hillary and her missteps the last time around. She could have made up some lost ground, but thus far, her campaign has been the same impersonal, canned shtick of 2008. Maybe worse. Hillary was a great diplomat and a wonderful SOS. I don't think she has it in her to connect to average people.

Bernie has the momentum now. She's lost so much ground and the big story here is that any big advantages she had in the summer, have eroded.

Again--At this time, during 2007--Obama was doing WORSE against Clinton--than Sanders is against her now. I don't see any way that she wins Iowa. Iowa may not mean everything, but it is the first state to vote, and Sanders will win NH. Winning the first two states will give Sanders big momentum going into SC.

The DNC and the DLC must be eating Tums by the barrel full.

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