538.com is delusional

[n2doc]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-democratic/

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has a 53% chance of winning the New Hampshire primary.


Freakin' delusional.

[jonno99]

1. It's all in the math (however, the keyword is 'chance') nt

[thereismore]

2. Yes that seems off. nt

[zipplewrath]

3. Hardly

Basically this analysis says it's neck and neck. 53% is basically a toss up. By the way, did you look at the "polls only" result?

[HereSince1628]

4. Classic, on the one hand... but, on the other hand

Looks like he's got a way to protect his reputation either way.

Well done, Nate!

[zipplewrath]

6. look at the trends.

Really, right now, you'd rather be him than her. She's headed in the wrong direction fast. And in the polls only version.....

[dorkzilla]

5. LOL - Polls only 73% Sanders!

Doesn’t make sense at all.

[Dawgs]

7. Don't worry. They will adjust on the day before the election...

And then claim that they were right all along.

Nate Silver is a snake oil salesman and too many on the left have bought what he's selling.

[Robbins]

8. Nate Silver is trying to have it both ways

he has long dismissed bernie but now he is covering his ass when bernie wins Iowa and NH.he will say we always had it a possibilty.
538 has gotten worse since NYT bought it.

[closeupready]

13. In hindsight, both entities were unforgivably wrong.

[Proserpina]

9. Resting on his laurels and previous good guesses

Nate Silver is showing he's only a shill. I thought he was slipping already 2 years ago.

[RoccoR5955]

10. My thoughts exactly n/t

[Betty Karlson]

11. and has been so ever since it was bought by an MSM parent company.

[joshcryer]

12. I don't even know where this "polls plus" method comes from.

Completely made up.