Clinton's Lead is Dropping like a Lead Brick

[Fawke Em]

In 2008, Hillary Clinton saddled up for the Kentucky Derby on a thoroughbred that was a sure thing. Her campaign was the finest colt in Kentucky, at odds that barely made it worth betting on her. The race began, and she was up by a quarter mile. Then, as another jockey started to gain, she slipped out of her saddle. She was barely hanging on, bumping along against the dirt, bruised and struggling and still hanging in there a half-a-length back. And then she lost and grudgingly wished the victor luck in winning the Triple Crown.

So you have to figure that, when 2016 rolled around and everyone was saying, "No, this horse is a sure thing," she was a bit wary. But she got on. She ran strong. She did well. And now, in the final turn, there might be something wrong with the saddle.

If we compare where Clinton is now in the Real Clear Politics polling average, the 2016 picture and the 2008 picture aren't really all that similar. Nationally, she was doing much better in 2008 than she is right now, perhaps in part because the anti-Clinton vote in 2008 was still split between two people -- Barack Obama and John Edwards -- instead of just one. But that recent trend line, a function of two new national polls that were close after a bit of a lull, is not very good news.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/14/hillary-clintons-national-lead-is-slipping-faster-in-2016-than-it-did-in-2008/?postshare=5981452798281465&tid=ss_in

[Warren DeMontague]

1. Maybe Debbie Wasserman Schultz should give more interviews to the NY times

about how awful Millennials and pot legalization are.


Yeah, that's the ticket!

[Cassiopeia]

2. Graph shows a total of 100 days before Iowa.

Just for reference.

[Duckhunter935]

3. Just donated again

[mindwalker_i]

4. She let her true personality shine through!

"This sucks! Change it!"

[appalachiablue]

5. K & R Major drop, deflating like last years rotting Halloween pumpkin..

[Cassiopeia]

6. A critical point to take away from this --

a point that we've made often before -- is that voting changes polling. If you look at her national numbers after Iowa in 2008, she lost three-quarters of her lead after the caucuses -- but gained some of it back after her win in New Hampshire.


It's going to look even worse if she loses both IA and NH. It may be the snowball that ends her run on Super Tuesday so significantly that she won't hold out until the very end to admit defeat like she did in '08.

Keep getting the word out, keep motivating primary voters.

[Fawke Em]

7. Can you imagine what will happen if the FBI admits they're expanding their investigation?

I've only heard this from right-wing sources, which aren't the most trustworthy, but IF it is true, that snowball will be more like this one.

?t=8

[Cassiopeia]

8. I've been waiting for that shoe to drop,

but I don't think it's coming. at least not before the end of the primary.

Obama is still in the WH and I'm sure if it was even a remote possibility there would have been conversations.

[Fawke Em]

9. True, but having worked with FBI agents for years, I can say

they really don't give a crap about politics. If they think there's a crime, they'll pursue it.

[Cassiopeia]

11. True enough

but the Director of the FBI does serve at the pleasure of the POTUS.

How is their relationship? I have no idea and won't really speculate on it.... because I truly have no idea.

Either way, I would rather see Bernie seal this nomination with our votes, not an investigation against Hillary.

[Fawke Em]

12. I agree that I'd rather Bernie win with our votes, but what concerns me is this:

What happens if she does get the nomination and then gets indicted?

[draa]

15. Then we get a republican president.

I'm not sure of the procedure should that happen but she certainly couldn't continue as the nominee. I suppose Bernie could step in but I doubt that would fly with the DNC. If they defeat him in the primary he's no longer a threat. I seriously doubt the Democratic establishment would open that door again.

[Divernan]

29. Good question re procedure in event of criminal indictment of a party's nominee

I know in my state (Pennsylvania) individual, indicted-but-not-yet-convicted, elected officials continue to "serve" and of course collect salaries and benefits, until actually convicted, at which time they are stripped of office. We have gone through this with indicted state representatives, state senators and state supreme court justices. We currently have a state Attorney General who has been stripped of her law license by the state bar association, but continues in office.

But case law has established that even CONVICTED felons can run for, be elected to and hold federal office.

Nodine is not the first man behind bars to seek the chance to serve the public while serving time. In 2002, former Rep. James Traficant, I-Ohio, took 15 percent of the vote even though he had just started an eight-year sentence for bribery, racketeering and other crimes. Going farther back in history, Matthew Lyon was successful in 1798. He had been convicted of libel, ran for Congress from prison and won.

The Constitution lists three conditions one must meet to be a candidate for the House of Representatives -- you must be at least 25 years old, have been a citizen for at least seven years and live in the state you hope to represent. These are all that are required, and states may not add to them, for example, by prohibiting a felon from running for office. According to a 2002 Congressional Research Service report, these conditions "are fixed and may not be supplemented by Congress nor by any State unilaterally."

States have more leeway when it comes to setting rules for who may hold state level office, but they have none at the federal level. The Supreme Court, in a case involving term limits, made it clear that states may not interfere. In U.S. Term Limits, Inc. vs. Thornton, the court struck down an amendment to the Arkansas constitution that limited those elected to Congress to three terms in the House and two in the Senate.

The court explained in its decision that not only states but even Congress itself could not "impose additional qualifications (that) would violate that ‘fundamental principle of our representative democracy . . . that the people should choose whom they please to govern them,’" according to an analysis in the Brigham Young University Law Review.

However, federal law does not protect anyone's right to run as a member of a poltical party.

Justin Levitt, professor at Loyola Law School, has more discouraging news for Nodine. "Nodine is right that federal law protects his right to run," Levitt said, "But it doesn't likely protect his right to run as a Republican, or even to run for the right to run as a Republican standard-bearer." So long as parties don’t discriminate in ways banned by the Constitution -- on the basis of race or religion for example -- then they can do much as they please, Levitt said.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/jun/25/stephen-nodine/can-convicted-felon-run-congress-jail/

Based on the Clintons' past performance, I believe Hillary would NEVER voluntarily withdraw her candidacy, if indicted, either during the primary or the general election. This would be the penultimate hot Clinton mess to engulf the country - oh, and how delighted Putin and other foreign powers would be to see the U.S. distracted by a protracted legal battle, and what advantages would they seek to take under such circumstances?

[draa]

32. Thanks Divernan.

[Cassiopeia]

34. I don't think it would matter

mostly because I don't think Hillary can win the GE.

[jeff47]

33. The Director of the FBI is also a Republican. (nt)

[Cassiopeia]

35. I did not remember that.

It will be interesting to see what and if anything develops.

[Duckfan]

21. How about the snowball to drop?

That can be a good indicator!

Can't wait for Iowa vote. Damn I'm getting excited.

[Cassiopeia]

24. We've worked hard to be competitive

to be on the cusp of a serious shot at taking the first two states.....

Well, everyone, even the majority of Bernie's supporters, said we would love it but come on... it can't happen right?

I've been saying for 2 months, I think there's gonna be a lot of shocked people around here when the voting starts.

[draa]

14. If she loses Iowa and New Hampshire

she likely won't win the WH even if she wins the nomination.

That's the reason you see the panic right now. Since 1972 only her husband has lost both and won the WH. I think 4 people have been in position to do it and only one has. And people loved Bill Clinton in 1992 when he accomplished it. He was a "I'd like to have a beer with him" type candidate. Hillary? Not so much from the looks of it.

If she loses both she's in deep trouble.

[Cassiopeia]

22. I agree.

The MSM and polling changes instantly if Bernie takes IA, it goes berserk when he follows up with NH.

While it's not over until it's actually over, everything changes if the first two sway towards Bernie.

[Kalidurga]

10. That is the most beautiful graph I have ever seen

[Fawke Em]

13. It is rather pretty!

[Duckfan]

23. As cantbeserious would say....

Quote: "I refuse to vote for the lesser of 2 corporate evils"

The millennials and independents are going to come out in droves for Bernie. Hillary is on a sinking ship.

[Kalidurga]

27. It couldn't happen to a nicer liar about Bernie taking away medicare by expanding it.

[closeupready]

30. Lol yeah right?

[Live and Learn]

16. K&R nt

[Akamai]

17. I am giving another $50 (plus 20 % tip to Bernie). Go Bernie!!

[Akamai]

18. Yup! They accepted my 50$ donation and my 20% tip.

I am happy to be able to do it!

Go, Bernie!!!

[roguevalley]

20. well done, Akamai. :D

[SoapBox]

19. No wonder she's running with the scary Healthcare shit!

3AM Phonecall!

BOO!

[Duckfan]

25. I'm afraid DWS is going to pull a karl Rove to derail Bernie in Iowa/NH.

[Gene Debs]

26. I've wondered about that myself. I actually wouldn't

put it past the the DNC and Wasserman-Schultz to try and rig Iowa and New Hampshire, and I wouldn't put it past Clinton to let them do it.

[Ino]

28. The horse race analogy reminds me...

of the prophetic Kentucky Derby in 2008.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/03/kentucky-derby-horse-eigh_n_99987.html

Hillary Clinton last week put her money on Eight Belles to win the race:
(snip)
Eight Belles actually ended up finishing second in the race, just behind Big Brown.

[Fawke Em]

31. And, sadly, Eight Belles was killed on the track after breaking her legs.

That was the LAST horse race I've ever watched. Tired of seeing animals abused for our entertainment.