Andrew Sullivan: "Why Joe Biden Might Be the Best Bet to Beat Trump"

[mtnsnake]

Snip:
"Biden’s positive message is a defense of the worker from the excesses of decadent late-capitalism. He can effortlessly channel that and compete with Trump in the Rust Belt. Sanders can do this as well — but Bernie, for all his sincerity and authenticity, does not have the heft of a two-term vice-president who has long been at the center of his party. For those who simply want to defeat Trump at all costs, Biden, for now, seems the safest bet. He can run on a platform deeply informed by the left’s critique of the market, without the baggage of left wokeness or those eager to play into the GOP’s hands and explicitly avow “socialism.”"

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/andrew-sullivan-why-biden-may-be-the-best-bet-to-beat-trump.html

You might not agree with everything Sullivan says in the article, but there is a lot of interesting food for thought in it.

[LakeArenal]

1. No "might" about it.

I knew I would support Joe since last year.

He’s not only presidential in every good way, he is that decent nice guy.

[NYMinute]

2. I'd say Biden, Beto or Kamala are the only bets.

[mtnsnake]

5. At this early stage, I agree those 3 appear be the strongest bets, but that can all change

after we start hearing more from some of the other candidates who don't have the luxury right now of the name recognition that Biden, O'Rourke, or Harris have.

Once the debates begin in June, we might all be pleasantly surprised by someone who isn't being taken too seriously at this time.

[uawchild]

6. New national polls suggest Warren gaining momentum in presidential race

"The senator from Massachusetts had a slow start in the Democratic presidential race, struggling with lackluster fund-raising and middling polls in the first few months of her campaign while watching rivals such as Beto O’Rourke and Pete Buttigieg each take a moment in the sun with bursts of support and surging contributions.

But now, there are early signs Warren’s relentless focus on policy detail and diligent face time with voters may be leading to a boost of her own, one that could help her break into the top tier of candidates that has been dominated by white men in early polls."

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2019/05/01/new-national-polls-suggest-warren-gaining-momentum-presidential-race/4ZcRvV35n14S6L8d8IK9bJ/story.html

Personally, I think we need a generational change in our party's leadership, but... a Warren/Booker slate could be very powerful.

Warren is very strong on economic issues and no one is more informed about challenges minorities are facing and what needs to be done to address those challenges than Booker.

[uawchild]

3. or maybe someone younger?

I respect the experience Warren and Sanders and Biden all bring to the table, but maybe it's actually a time for a generational change in our leadership?

Let's give the entire field of candidates a chance to get national exposure, participate in debates and , gasp, run against each other in actual primary elections before letting pundits and early polls "anoint" our nominee.

To paraphrase Game of Thrones... Change is Coming!

[highplainsdem]

4. K&R. More from that column:

The polling is just as impressive. In three separate polls released this week, Biden’s support is somewhere in the upper 30s, and his nearest competitor is in the mid-teens (or, in one case, low 20s). In a field of 20 candidates, that’s a big share, and in Nate Silver’s analysis, “Well-known candidates polling in the mid-30s in the early going are about even money to win the nomination, historically.” Yes, he’s riding an announcement bump right now and his numbers may and almost certainly will fade over time. His name recognition is sky-high compared with some others, who could catch up as the campaign progresses. And he might once again gaffe his way into oblivion. But he has a big enough lead to be able to afford a certain amount of erosion.

And his strength is drawn from two contrasting bases: older, moderate whites, and African-Americans. Although his share is in the 30s overall, he has a whopping 50 percent share among nonwhite Democrats, according to the latest CNN poll. A Morning Consult poll found him with 43 percent of the black vote, including 47 percent support among African-American women. Biden’s deep association with Obama gives him a lift in the black vote no other white candidate can achieve. And so it turns out that the base of the Democrats has not been swept into the identity cult of the elite, wealthy, white left. As a brand-new CBS poll finds, Democrats may prefer a hypothetical female nominee over a male (59–41 percent), a black nominee over a white one (60–40 percent), and someone in their 40s to someone in their 70s. But that’s in the abstract. In reality, Biden seems to scramble these preferences.

He’s also been able to reach non-college-educated white men in ways few other candidates could. That’s a big fucking deal in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — and if Biden can carry those states, he’ll be the next president.

[Cha]

11. "That's a big fucking deal in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.."

And his strength is drawn from two contrasting bases: older, moderate whites, and African-Americans. Although his share is in the 30s overall, he has a whopping 50 percent share among nonwhite Democrats, according to the latest CNN poll. A Morning Consult poll found him with 43 percent of the black vote, including 47 percent support among African-American women. Biden’s deep association with Obama gives him a lift in the black vote no other white candidate can achieve. And so it turns out that the base of the Democrats has not been swept into the identity cult of the elite, wealthy, white left.

It's so early but..!

He’s also been able to reach non-college-educated white men in ways few other candidates could. That’s a big fucking deal in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — and if Biden can carry those states, he’ll be the next president

Gracias, highplainsdem!

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/andrew-sullivan-why-biden-may-be-the-best-bet-to-beat-trump.html

[FakeNoose]

7. I do want to see a woman President in my lifetime

... but this time out, I'm thinking it has to be a man. I'm not a sexist, far from it. Things are going to get ugly next year, very ugly. But the way the GOP treated Hillary in 2016 was so much uglier, and it would break my heart to see that ever happen to another woman. We have to regain normalcy and manners in this country somehow. But we're not there yet and we won't be there by next year.

Our Nominee needs to be somebody who can do "pitbull" and "stand-up comic" in the same outing. Experience, intelligence, and fearlessness are important traits our leader should have. Also a ready smile, quick handshake and folksy, friendly manner that puts people at ease. These are all things that I see in Joe Biden much more than in Bernie or the other male candidates.

If Joe chooses a woman running mate, it would be the best of all worlds in my opinion.

[mtnsnake]

8. I thiink we do have women candidates who can stand up to the big bloated bully just fine

Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar have both shown that ability during past Congressional hearings. I also think that some of our other women candidates would do just fine as well in that regard.

[FakeNoose]

9. Yes I'm quite sure they can

I'm tired of the misogyny & ugliness of the Republican Party. That was my point.

[PDittie]

10. Yes, well

I will certainly carefully consider the views of a moderate conservative and former Republican (but only because of Trump and wars) in picking the best Democratic candidate in the Democratic primary.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

15. But he concurs with Jennifer Rubin from the "Right Turn" column so he must be correct!

She gets posted here almost daily.

[Cha]

12. Thank You for this, mtnsnake..

[mtnsnake]

13. you're very welcome, Cha

[Miles Archer]

14. With respect to every potential candidate...

...I feel that he's what's needed at this specific time, a time that defies ANY kind of "metrics."

The importance of making Trump a one-termer is off the charts. YES, there has to be an agenda for the four years that follow the election. And there WILL be, but there is nothing more important to me than defeating Trump in November 2020. We can shape and re-build after that happens, but it's GOT TO happen.