I think we're misremembering a bulk of the 2016 campaign...

[Drunken Irishman]

I'm sure some will disagree but I think there's a faulty narrative that's being established here that Clinton's focusing on Trump's awfulness, constantly criticizing his amoral nature and how unfit he was for president, backfired and hurt her more than it helped.

I disagree.

I think that's the message that neutralized her weakness, her own likability factor, and positioned her to beat Trump in a campaign that was being manipulated by a foreign power.

What lost Hillary 2016 was, and I'll never be unconvinced of this, the release of that Comey Letter insinuating potential further investigation, and even a potential indictment, into her e-mails.

The reality: there were two moments where Hillary's numbers took the biggest hit - when the FBI concluded its initial investigation into her e-mails and when Comey's Letter dropped a week or so before the election. Both times, Clinton was the focal point of the news cycle and it was all negative.

There's a hint in there about what was effective and what wasn't.

Trump struggled as a general election candidate when the race was entirely about his actions. While his numbers didn't tank at any point in that campaign, they were pretty much universally the worst whenever his remarks, whether recent or past, were the focal point of the news cycle.

There was a stretch where the entire focus of the campaign was on Trump's feud with the Khan Family, his feud with the former Miss America, the Access Hollywood tape and his erratic debate performance. That stretch saw some of Trump's worst overall ratings of the general election.

What changed, however, was the Comey Tape. For the first time since early summer, when the FBI closed its investigation into Clinton, the narrative was not on Trump's deplorable attitude - it was on Hillary Clinton. And it dinged her. For the final week of the campaign, Trump was literally relegated to the background of the news cycle. Talk to his handlers, and campaign staff, and they'll all probably admit that was the most fortunate thing that happened in that campaign.

When the race veered away from his actions, her numbers dropped - either from the initial e-mails investigation, the slow drip of the leaked DNC e-mails or the Comey Letter (and its subsequent rebuttal). If the Democrats are going to win in 2020, they'll have to focus again on Trump. If it's a policy oriented debate only, what that does is it legitimizes and excuses away his behavior and pacifies the electorate on it so we again draw partisan lines in the sand. That's not to say policy shouldn't be there, as I believe the Democrats have a winning issue on healthcare, but it can't be the only thing - especially if the economy is at the level it is today because then that debate FAVORS Trump.

Trump was hanging himself every single day as we winded down the 2016 campaign. What saved him was the Comey Letter because it shifted everything back to Hillary and that lost her the election.

Here's some poll milestones to prove my point (using RCP's average):

July 1st, 2016 - Hillary polls at about a five-point margin over Trump.
July 5th, 2016 - Comey recommends no charges for Hillary.
July 26th, 2016 - Trump takes an overall lead in the RCP.
July 28th, 2016 - Democratic Convention comes to a close - Clinton & Trump are tied.
July 29th, 2016 - Trump roundly criticized for his comments toward the Khan Family.
Aug., 1st, 2016 - Clinton surges to a 4.4 point lead on the heels of the DNC & the Khan squabble.
Sept., 18th, 2016 - Clinton's lead narrows to just .9% - but this is only temporary.
Oct. 6th, 2016 - Clinton leads Trump by 4.7 nationally - the day before the Access Hollywood tape drops.
Oct., 7th, 2016 - the Access Hollywood tape is released.
Oct. 14th, 2016 - Clinton's lead has ballooned to 7 nationally in the wake of the Access Hollywood tape.
Oct. 25th, 2016 - Clinton leads Trump by 5.4% on the eve of the Comey Letter.
Oct. 28th, 2016 - The Comey Letter is released
Nov. 3rd, 2016 - Clinton now leads Trump by only 1.6 points nationally, a drop of nearly four-points in less than a week.
Nov. 8th, 2016 - Clinton loses.

The end here was that Trump wasn't the narrative in the final week of the campaign and the polls show how much he was aided by that.

Trump polled at his worst head-to-head when Clinton and her attack dogs were constantly hitting him on moral issues.

He polled his best when the narrative was off those moral issues and on, say, policy or his opponent.

It's nice to think that Democrats can win on policy alone in 2016 but 2016 wasn't lost because Clinton focused too much on Trump. In fact, polling suggests that made him the weakest.

[brooklynite]

1. You're entitled to disagree....but two State Party Chairs told me that's what happened.

[uawchild]

4. Please share

I am newly back! What did those two State Party Chairs tell you about the 2016 election?

[brooklynite]

19. Two key points...

First, Clinton’s them assumed that if you voted for Obama, you’d vote for her. As a result, they spent a lot of time registering new voters (which is time consuming with low,yield). Second part was they spent money on TV ads (not locally targeted) focusing on Trump’s failings rather then Clinton’s capabilities.

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. Hacked, stolen election. Comey didn't help - but....Russia

[abqtommy]

11. Hilllary WON THE POPULAR VOTE by a count of 3 million!

Last edited Sun May 5, 2019, 04:28 PM - Edit history (1)

The process was corrupt. It interests me that so many people want to provide an analysis of why Democrats "lost" an election we actually won!

[NRaleighLiberal]

17. Exactly. They can't deal with the truth of what happened

[brooklynite]

20. It doesn't matter what the vote count was..

Regardless of hat we SHOULD do, we don’t elect President’s based on a national vote. Candidates have to campaign based on the rules in place.

[watoos]

3. Democrats didn't turn out.

[progressoid]

6. Yep.

[Ford_Prefect]

8. False narrative,once again. Democratic votes were dumped, voters turned away, de-listed,

de-registered, gerrymandered out of contention, not to mention abused and lied to while waiting to cast their votes. The final corrected tallies showed quite a strong turn out for both parties, despite the official outcomes.

Trump won by the slimmest of margins in key states after the GOP bent every rule they could find.

Democrats WERE robbed 6 ways from Sunday and every way there was...Including direct count manipulation!

So far as I can see the DCCC and Democratic Party leaders have done little to address any of this and appear to have their heads in the sand whenever the topic arises. Trump and his minions have defunded and disabled federal offices and programs intended to prevent foreign and domestic interference. They deny there was anything incorrect despite countless observers to the contrary including the UN High Commission.

[John Fante]

26. Yup. The 2016 electorate was the largest ever

yet Hillary recieved fewer total votes than Obama in 2008/2012.


Keep in mind that Trump was no 4D chess champion - he actually captured a lower share of the electorate than Romney (46% for Gump, 47% for Romney). It's just that Hillary underperformed '12 Obama by a bigger margin) 48% to 51%). With the electoral college favoring the Pukes, that can't happen.

[MH1]

5. Can you remind us where in that timeline was the "deplorables" comment?

Where she said half of his supporters could be characterized as a "basket of deplorables" or something?

The problem wasn't that she attacked Trump as deplorable. She attacked voters. She may have been intending that as a statement against Trump, but it didn't come out that way, and really motivated a backlash among his supporters. (I sadly have relatives who voted for Trump. After the "deplorables" comment there was less than zero chance of getting through to them. Without the comment the chance was still low, but it was above zero.)

Anyway it is a huge distinction and to the extent data shows "Clinton's focusing on Trump's awfulness, constantly criticizing his amoral nature and how unfit he was for president, backfired and hurt her more than it helped", it is probably because of HOW she did it - making his supporters feel attacked - rather than because of the goal of making Trump look bad to them - which she utterly failed to achieve.

[radical noodle]

7. September 9th

She said half of his supporters belonged in a basket of deplorables, and as best I can see she was spot on.

[MH1]

12. So between Aug 1 and Sep 18 her lead shrank considerably.

Aug., 1st, 2016 - Clinton surges to a 4.4 point lead on the heels of the DNC & the Khan squabble.
Sept., 18th, 2016 - Clinton's lead narrows to just .9% - but this is only temporary.

It came back but then was hammered again by the Comey statement. (which I agree was the most immediate cause of her loss ... but not losing points irretrievably to poor politics would have helped insulate against it.)

It's not that she was wrong factually. It's that it was a fail, politically.

[StevieM]

13. I think the basket of deplorables was turned into a bigger moment after the race than it was

during the race.

At the time, people seemed more concerned that she fell down on 9/11.

The central message of her campaign was "Stronger Together." And I think she got the message across. By the end, it just wasn't enough. It was overridden by Comey.

[JI7]

16. agree, the deplorables had to do with all the hateful shit from his supporters

and Trump attacked other voters all the time.

[karynnj]

21. I disagree

Read what MH1 wrote about PA. I know it had an affect because it infuriated a NC relative of mine, who voted for HRC in spite of -maybe because of three progressive adult daughters and his wife. At Thanksgiving, he spoke of how he felt it targeted him, because he was Southern, white and male. Our large extended family, all HRC voters, tried to explain.

My point, if the father of three successful daughters, who he helped become the impressive women they are thought she was speaking of him, how many other men or women did? Not to mention, at one point the Clinton campaign thought they would have a hidden source of support in white women, whose husbands were all in for Trump. It may be that that would never happen, but that attack that they saw as on their husbands, likely made it impossible.

[StevieM]

23. I can't refute a given anecdote, but the best evidence tells me that the moment was not significant.

Hillary immediate backed down and clarified what she meant. She didn't double down like Trump did.

Her poll numbers went down at the time, mainly because of the fall on 9/11. But they quickly shot back up to higher than they had ever been.

I hardly think it is fair to compare her words to a situation like when Sarah Palin referred to the "pro-America parts of the country." And I don't think they were taken that way by a large number of people.

[karynnj]

25. I never mentioned Sarah Palin

The timeline in the op shows her numbers going down. You don't have any proof it did not hurt, so it is strange to say the same thing to me. I never claimed I could prove there was an impact.

[Drunken Irishman]

28. I do agree that the deplorable moments was a rough patch for her...

But that again turned the optics onto her campaign - not Trump's. You're right. No candidate should go after his supporters, no matter how reasonable it may seem.

Still, the Comey Letter is what lost Hillary that race. If it doesn't drop, she probably wins the popular vote by 4+ points and that's enough to make up the difference in, say, PA, WI and MI.

[progressoid]

9. Barack Obama Blamed Hillary's 'Soulless Campaign' for 2016 Loss to Trump, Book Claims

Former President Barack Obama and his team blamed Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party’s loss at the 2016 presidential election, regarding her campaign as “soulless,” according to a new book.

The Daily Mail published extracts from a new edition of Obama: The Call of History, written by Peter Baker, chief White House correspondent for The New York Times, that was first published in 2017. The new edition will be published on May 10.

"She was the one who could not translate his strong record and healthy economy into a winning message,” wrote Baker about the Obama camp’s view of Clinton’s campaign.

"Never mind that Trump essentially ran the same playbook against Clinton that Obama did eight years earlier, portraying her as a corrupt exemplar of the status quo.

"She brought many of her troubles on herself. No one forced her to underestimate the danger in the Midwest states of Wisconsin and Michigan. No one forced her to set up a private email server that would come back to haunt her.

"No one forced her to take hundreds of thousands of dollars from Goldman Sachs and other pillars of Wall Street for speeches. No one forced her to run a scripted, soulless campaign that tested eighty-five slogans before coming up with 'Stronger Together.'”

https://www.newsweek.com/obama-blames-hillary-clinton-losing-trump-2016-book-1413757?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=NewsweekTwitter

[seaglass]

10. Yeah, no he didn't say that. Nor is there a quote in the article that you posted that he did.

[progressoid]

15. Just posting what Newsweek published.

For what it's worth, Clinton also blamed Obama (among other things - including herself).

"I do wonder sometimes about what would have happened if President Obama had made a televised address to the nation...warning that our democracy was under attack. Maybe more Americans would have woken up to the threat in time."

https://www.axios.com/16-things-hillary-clinton-blames-for-her-election-loss-1513305545-cf6505a6-76a8-49a0-989a-1be67190d4ed.html

[radical noodle]

18. That's not blaming him

I imagine Obama wonders the exact same thing.

[JHan]

30. and things like this never got attention.

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/hillary-clinton-support-fast-food-workers

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-clinton-home-care-20150806-story.html

Stuff like this was apparently "soulless"

The paper (NYT) barely acknowledged that days later Clinton teed up her plan for subsidized child care and raising the wages of caregivers — proposals that would have been understood not long ago as something out of a ’70s feminist fever dream. There was also little media notice of her declaration, that same week, that she would remove bankers from the boards of regional Federal Reserve banks — an announcement that should have pleased left-leaning champions of financial reform.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/05/hillary-clinton-candidacy.html?gtm=top

I give up.

[radical noodle]

31. Yep. Here's what was really "soulless"...

people who advocated voting for a third party candidate and those who did so. Thanks to them, this country has been taken back to the dark ages and we won't get back to the light for a very long time.

[seaglass]

33. I'll wait to see the quote marks around the statement with Obama said to me before I believe this

ridiculousness. Obama is not dumb.

[Eliot Rosewater]

34. He didnt say any of this, the author of the book did.

The author called Obama ARROGANT and he says Obama likened himself to Michael Corleone.

Which he never did, of course.

Get this bullshit away from me, sigh

[StevieM]

14. Great analysis. I totally agree. (eom)

[crazytown]

22. The media allowed Trump to make the campaign about Trump.

He was invited on their shows to perform like a side show freak. They waited with baited breath for the next superlative outrage, safe in the knowledge that whatever turned up today there would be another soon enough.

As Pete Buttigieg says, Trump is a like a graphic horror show. The more gruesome the content, the harder it is to look away.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. I agree the media legitimized the rhetoric to a degree...

But Trump polled at his worst when the narrative was about just how awful of a person he was and that's not a coincidence.

[LongtimeAZDem]

24. All primary seasons are combative; that is why it is VITAL for the runner-up to work like mad

to bring their supporters around to the candidate the instant a clear winner emerges.

[Panich52]

27. I agree that pointing out Trump's faults not what

hurt her. It got drowned out by Russia's social media assault, aided by Comey.

I also think keeping on Trump's criminality & abuse of power can help turn Senate blue along with WH. 20(?) Repubs are up for reelection and the Trump sycophants need to be targeted for their support of Trump's unconstitutional activities. Except for the brain-dead 25-30% of solid Trump supporters, enough should be able to break from their cultish brainwashing to turn the majority of voters into an electoral majority as well and maybe oust traitorous Senators (& Reps, too).

[marble falls]

35. Why are we still arguing about this???????