Chump ain't gonna go down easily.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

I still like our hand better than his hand but this election is going to be a dog fight as long as the economy stays as it is. Presidents running for re-election usually get the same percentage of the vote as their approval rating. It's highly correlated. For instance President Obama was around fifty percent approval on the day of the 2012 election and that's essentially the percentage of the vote he received. Some folks say Kerry ran a bad race. He actually did as well as could be expected. Bush was also around fifty percent approval on the day of the 2004 election and that's roughly the percentage of the vote he received.

In fact Trump doesn't need fifty percent to win given the vagaries of the Electoral College and the fact there will be a third and fourth party poaching votes. I would set the over/under at forty six percent. He's currently sitting at forty three percent or so.

Maybe the economy slows and he becomes a lame duck. But if it stays the way it is I would make him a live underdog.

Sorry for the gambling parlance.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. I appreciate your viewpoint! Thank you for your perspective. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. If I were going to numerate Chump's chances I would put it at 2 in 5.

That's simultaneously depressing and frightening. Thankfully we live in the Republic Of California where we are as immune as can be from Trumpism. BTW I was in Hollywood the other day and there's a man with a "F--k Trump. Please give me a dollar sign" at the corner of Hollywood and Highland.

[empedocles]

2. Oft said of Nixon, he could have survived Watergate had the economy held up.

Fortunately, he was hoisted by his own petard - closing the gold window for his election advantage.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. The backdrop to Watergate, as you said, was a nasty recession.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

5. The Economy is susceptible to Gravity. ...

What goes up, wil, come down eventually.

Pres. Obama is to be credited for this run, not Trump slashing taxes for the Uber rich
h.

[John Fante]

6. Trump doesn't need 50%, but I don't think 46% will cut it this time.

Everything would have to go just right (again) for Trump to eek out a win with that percentage. For starters isn't going to be and investigation hanging over Biden's campaign, so that's one boost Trump won't be able to rely on this time.

McCain and Romney recieved 46% and 47% of the vote... and didn't come close to winning the presidency. Unless Trump gets very popular very fast, that's the result he's looking at right now.

Even worse, 2+ years in and Trump hasn't come close to a 46% average in the polls. He has gone under 43% countless times, suggesting that 43% is closer to his ceiling than his floor. That's a horrible percentage given the state of the economy - a tree stump could get +50% approval ratings with 3.6% unemployment.

[BlueWI]

7. It would be foolish to write off an opponent's chances.

That happened in 2016. Won't happen this time.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Precisely, especially with the vagaries of the Republican, errrrr Electoral College.