Biden the 'clear front runner' among Democratic contenders: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver,,🎨🖍

[Iamaartist]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-clear-front-runner-democratic-contenders-fivethirtyeights-nate/story?id=62753785





While Silver said he's "not sure that claim would withstand a fact check," he said Biden's long record in the public eye and ties to former President Barack Obama give him an edge on some of his lesser-known opponents.
Biden's claim "might withstand the scrutiny, ironically, of Democratic voters, because he was Obama's vice president for eight years," Silver said. "A lot of questions that you would have about some other old ex-senator who decided to run for office are not going to be asked by Democrats because he was the V.P., because he is closely tied to Obama and because Obama is still very popular among Democratic voters."
Silver noted that many of the ideas Biden has put forth so far are simple themes, such as restoring America. Meanwhile, candidates like Warren have churned out detailed policy proposals.
"It's very basic messaging but he has the advantage that because he is so well known he doesn't have to weave in all the biography," Silver said. "He doesn't have to explain why he should be the one you should pick for president, so much as 'here's what I stand for,' and cuts very straight to the actual conclusion."
While it remains to be seen who ultimately cinches the Democratic presidential nomination, Silver said Biden's chances are looking good


We have to restore America. We are danger with our allies,. And I feel Joe is the one. For me anyway....
Joe is the only one who can..... 😎

[elleng]

1. LET IT GO,

it is MAY 2019!!!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

14. Who do you like? Must not be Joe. Hope we

Aren't on opposite sides again

[elleng]

17. I am truly undecided,

and probably won't decide til shortly before MD primary.

And no 'antagonisms' if on different 'sides' from anyone here (or ANYWHERE.)

Just GOTTA GET RID of trump.

My real point for my post is it is MUCH too early for ANYONE to predict ANYTHING.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

36. Very true. You never know what's gonna happen. Look how quickly Dean took

a dive. Lots of people think Beto's on the rise as he stumps out there and has been to so many places and is having organized canvassing events everywhere.

Never in a million years did I think Trump would be where he is now. Thought the Mueller report would take a chunk out of his approval. Even thought he'd be so damaged he wouldn't even run.

[Demsrule86]

41. No one is even close to Biden. Getting a candidate quickly is

Good thing. Then we turn our attention to Trump. We should have a candidate after super Tuesday, and it will be Biden in my opinion. We don't need a bruising primary that leads to a loss in the general.

[Beatleman]

2. As time goes on

will all the remaining running,continue to be civil,to each other ?

[Iamaartist]

3. Thank-you ........

[murielm99]

4. I like Joe.

I could support him willingly.

[Iamaartist]

10. Thank-you ........

[delisen]

5. The only one?

[LongtimeAZDem]

6. Of our current choices? Yeah, I tend to agree with the OP.

[Iamaartist]

8. Thank-you ........agree with you,,,😎

[delisen]

23. "so if Biden takes ill we have no viable candidate? doubtful

Last edited Sun May 5, 2019, 06:51 AM - Edit history (1)

In fact that is what Trump used to say about himself at rallies-he was the only one (in that case the only one to save America).

I don't imagine Biden himself would claim to be the only one who can win presidential election in 2020.

[LongtimeAZDem]

25. I think he would actually; in fact, I believe he did:

“If you can persuade me there is somebody better who can win, I’m happy not to do it,” Biden said. “But I don’t see the candidate who can clearly do what has to be done to win."

And I agree; at this time, I don't think any of the other candidates we have can beat Trump. I do wish Biden was younger, but that's not the case.

[Demsrule86]

27. Who else can win? If we don't rebuild the blue wall, we lose.

We have not won Arizona, Georgia and Texas in years...we elected a Republican governor in Ohio and Florida. We lost a sitting senator in Florida also. Midterms did show that centrists could win and we got the house back.

[Demsrule86]

42. Biden is only one who can win the rustbelt.

[Iamaartist]

7. Guess you will have to ask silver....he is my choice...

[delisen]

24. I thought you were the one who said Biden is the only one who can......

[abqtommy]

9. Subject to change, of course,

at a moment's notice!

[Iamaartist]

11. Up to you for your choice....😊

[msongs]

12. joe can win then implement warrens proposals... nt

[Laura PourMeADrink]

15. +1. He can get trump out then put all our great

Progressives in positions that matter.

Signs now we won't have the Senate tho

[Demsrule86]

43. It is still looking possible. Ossoff is a better candidate for Georgia than some think.

We can win in maine, Arizona and colorado.

[Demsrule86]

28. Warren's proposals will not happen anytime soon even if she won which she won't.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

16. So requirements are based on age, gender, race?

[MadDAsHell]

18. Yes. nt

[Demsrule86]

29. Yeah well that is how we lose, picking a candidate and trying to get the country to

Accept him/her againstvall odds. Warren won't win a general against Trump. She won't win in moderate states, and if we nominate her, we get four more years of Trump. I like Elizabeth Warren and would vote for her of course in a general. But we will lose.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

33. the weird part about this is that the candidate doesn't win the nom in the end - the

more moderate person does. 2016. at least. So, in the end, we become fractured as people hold on to their losing choice. That is something the republicans don't do. Think about Cruz, who's wife was maligned and father accused of conspiring to kill Kennedy. That wasn't enough for him to not become a Trump lover. It's like they think more big picture.

[Demsrule86]

44. You have to have the primary votes. Trump did. Whoever has the most votes wins.

[aeromanKC]

19. Such a DEEP field for the Dems in 2020!!!

The Dem 2020 field is so deep!!!! It is awesome!!!! Go Joe, Kamala, Pete, and Beto!! (among others, but we know the winner will be one of these) The rest will make up the BEST cabinet ever assembled!!!!!! (But Joe, be careful taking senators from states with R governors for your cabinet. That was one of Obama's biggest early mistakes.)

[Laura PourMeADrink]

34. Very true. Projections show a 51-49 senate in 2021

[NYMinute]

20. Kick and Recommend nt

[SCVDem]

21. Is Joe Biden

This generations Jimmy Carter?

A nice guy to mend the country.

[VarryOn]

22. He'd be my pick if I had to choose today...

I plan to make my pick once we se everyone on the debate stage. Hopefully, a large chunk will be winnowed out to make choosing somewhat easier.

[Persondem]

26. At this point in 1991 a certain little known governor of Arkansas was polling

around 2%.

I think Gov. Inslee can do what Clinton did, ... minus the dalliances with other women.

[Demsrule86]

30. This isn't 1991.

[Persondem]

37. No shit ... and??

[Demsrule86]

39. In 1991, Bush 1 had great poll numbers...few Democrats even ran. It was not a race with 20

or more people running. Times are different. We have a dangerous fascist criminal in the white house. We must win. Most voters believe electability is key and many want a nominee sooner rather than later... we don't want a bruising primary and subsequently a loss in the general like 2016 .

[Persondem]

45. Well, make up your mind, .. is it 1991 or 2016? If you are worried about having a "bruising"

then there is one particular candidate that seems to encourage that and it ain't mine. "Most voters" haven't had the first thought about 2020 and aren't paying any attention to what's going on yet.

Inslee is not at all likely to add to the level of "bruising" in the election. He is a class act with a great record, no negatives and there is plenty of time for him to catch on. We do not need to anoint a candidate before the primaries even begin. That was my point in mentioning 1991 - Clinton was right where Inslee is now.

You want to support your guy, fine. I'll support mine.

[J_William_Ryan]

31. Beating Trump is all that matters.

Whom you might ‘like’ is irrelevant.

The industrial Midwest will again determine who the next president will be – Biden is the sole Democrat with the best chance to win those states.

[Demsrule86]

40. Exactly right.

[samnsara]

32. I like it that joes ahead..it simply validates my choice, but i will vote for ANYONE who gets....

...the Dem Nom...

[J_William_Ryan]

35. Frankly, I don't care what Biden's positions on the issues are.

He’s a Democrat, which means he’ll be right on most of the issues. where Trump is wrong on most of the issues – and he’s the only Democrat who can beat Trump.

And should that change during the course of the primaries, with another candidate demonstrating he/she is best suited to beat Trump, I’ll drop Biden in a heartbeat and support that candidate 100 percent, regardless his/her position on the issues.

I encourage my fellow Democrats to do the same.

[Gothmog]

38. I think that Joe Biden is the candidate who is most likely to defeat trump

[Gothmog]

46. Washington Post-Opinion: Voters aren't playing along with the media narrative

Link to tweet

The latest Hill-HarrisX poll shows former vice president Joe Biden opening up a 32-point lead over Sanders, whose claim to the party’s heart is evaporating before our eyes. The latest Morning Consult poll shows Biden expanding his share to 40 percent (up 4 points from the previous week) and Sanders tumbling to 19 percent (down from 27 percent in February). In other words, available evidence suggests that at present the predicted story lines aren’t emerging.....

The most reliable voters — African American women — have little affection for Sanders, nor have they automatically gravitated to African American candidates to the left of Biden. They know Biden, they like him and so far they are content to reward him with their support after his eight years of service in the Obama administration.

The lack of appeal among African American candidates is now a significant problem for Sanders and for other progressives such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg. (The latest Quinnipiac poll found, “Biden had the support of 42 percent of nonwhite respondents, more than 30 points ahead of his nearest rival, Warren. Sanders, who struggled with nonwhite voters during his 2016 campaign, had only 7 percent support.”)

In short, in going far to the left, Sanders and other candidates misfired not only with older, more moderate whites but also with the critical African American electorate. The media likewise has overestimated the influence of the far left and failed to appreciate the centrist bent of both white and African American voters.