Why is Biden stuck at 14% favorability here on DU?

[uawchild]

Sure, its early, but early polls have him at 40% popularity among responders, yet only 14% have got behind him here on DU.

Is it because DU members are more informed?

I really like the display fo DU rankings for the candidates, but would it be too hard to have that show the "ranked choice voting" of people's preference here?

"With ranked choice voting, voters can rank as many candidates as they want in order of choice. Candidates do best when they attract a strong core of first-choice support while also reaching out for second and even third choices."

https://www.fairvote.org/rcv#where_is_ranked_choice_voting_used

[Sherman A1]

1. Because that's the current number

If more switch their preference it will go up or down.

[spooky3]

2. It's not "favorability" on DU. DU asks you to pick

One candidate out of >20. I see several candidates favorably but don’t know right now which candidate would be “best.”

[True Dough]

4. Good answer!

There is a distinction between favorability and throwing one's support behind a particular candidate.

P.S. Pete Buttigieg is the way to go!

[saidsimplesimon]

11. sooky3, I agree.

We still have lots of time to decide on a Presidential candidate for 2020. I will get behind whoever wins our primary.

[33taw]

3. I vacillate between candidates and would like to wait until the debates.

I only have three that I don’t really care for, but I’ll vote for them if they are the nominee.

[WeekiWater]

5. Could be a number of things.

Members of DU are giving Warren, Harris, and Buttigieg a stronger look than the country as a whole.

"Is it because DU members are more informed? "

A part of the answer to that is yes. There is much less of a name recognition curve here on DU.

We are also holding at 40% undecided. Much larger than what most of the polls are showing.

We also don't know the sampling size here on DU. It may be insignificant when it comes to making anything of it at all.

[uawchild]

15. sampling size here on DU

I assumed the sampling size is all DU accounts. if people don't actively choose a candidate, they go into the undecided bin. Isn't that how it works?

Thanks for your thoughtful response.

Cheers!

[WeekiWater]

21. "I assumed the sampling size is all DU accounts."

It is only of people who have posted in this forum or have come to this forum and made a selection.

[EarlG]

57. This is correct

We did not automatically assign all DU accounts to "Undecided". Members have to opt-in by selecting a candidate (or Undecided), otherwise our software lists them as essentially "N/A" and they are not factored in to the calculations.

So the 40% Undecided represents people who have selected that option.

[uawchild]

59. ah! Thanks for the info!

Thanks to you both for this information.

It would be interesting to know the total number of people that have opted-in and to see how that changes thru the course of the primaries.

Thanks again!

[muriel_volestrangler]

71. Not sure how much you could read into that

Since I'm not a US citizen, I'm "undecided" and will remain that way. I was 'N/A' until I wanted to post on a story that involved a candidate and so is in this forum (though my interest wasn't really primary related). So opted-in, for me, just meant "wanted to say something". Many other may be choosing Undecided just to post, whether or not the primaries are of big concern to them yet.

[ananda]

6. I like Biden's chances v MF45 the best. But ..

.. I would happily vote for Warren, Mayor Pete, Kamala Harris,
and of course my real fave, Beto O'Rourke!

[oldsoftie]

7. Because most on DU havent picked yet for whatever reason. Biden leads with those who HAVE.

I have asked, since the line is "if the vote were held today....", why so many cant pick a name that they would vote for if they HAD to vote TODAY. Because if it were, theres no way they'd NOT vote!

[bigbrother05]

56. That is the DU criteria, but we don't really have to pick today

There is a large group here (40%?) that have been through multiple cycles and don't feel the pressure to jump on any bandwagons yet.

As the field narrows during the primaries, the vote today test will be more valid to reflect actual choices.

[beachbum bob]

8. Not favorable rating, besides DU has never been a haven of centrists

democrats as long as I can remember.

[comradebillyboy]

9. Do we owe him our support before he has won the nomination?

Obviously most are still undecided. We have some excellent new candidate who deserve to be heard. No debates have happened, no primaries yet. He's clearly the favorite at the moment but the real decision time is at least a year away.

[DownriverDem]

29. Why not?

You support Harris before she won the nomination. Personally, I would love to see a Biden/Harris ticket.

[comradebillyboy]

46. I'm hoping that Harris is the nominee. I'm really not a big

fan of Joe Biden. I simply think he is vastly superior to Sanders. If Biden has a big lead after super-Tuesday I'll jump on the bandwagon and go all in. But I really would like a younger candidate.

[redstateblues]

10. LOL! Why is your candidate stuck at 1%?

It has got to be frustrating. It explains why you are on an anti Biden tear this AM

[uawchild]

13. Has the media created the Biden "surge'? 538 makes the case

Cable News Is Covering Biden As Much As Every Other Democratic Candidate Combined

In the first full week of his 2020 campaign, former Vice President Joe Biden continued to dominate cable news coverage on CNN, Fox News and MSNBC. According to data from the TV News Archive, which chops up TV news into 15-second clips that we access using the GDELT Project’s Television API,1 Biden was mentioned in more clips that any other candidate across the three networks last week, and he was mentioned almost four times as often as Sen. Bernie Sanders, who had been getting the most coverage of any 2020 candidate before Biden joined the race. For the second consecutive week, Biden, who has also been well ahead in polling and endorsements, was mentioned in about as many clips as all the other candidates combined.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/cable-news-is-covering-biden-as-much-as-every-other-democratic-candidate-combined/

It is frustrating when the media is pushing a narrative for ratings, that is true.

Please don't be disappointed when they decide the "Biden Surge" is old news and turn on him. It's exactly what they did to Hillary Clinton.

Cheers!

[BigOleDummy]

26. Excellent answer to the

… snark that is plain to see.

[TwilightZone]

30. That article doesn't say what you assert it does.

Coverage peaked when he announced and dropped 34% the next week, a similar pattern to the other candidates, except for Sanders. The coverage was still higher simply because he peaked higher than the others. Because...math.

The "surge" you keep maligning happened in spite of the drop, not because of it. It was also because of the build-up and the "will he, won't he" talk for the past couple months.

As many have noted, he's getting the most coverage because he just announced and he's the front-runner. Same thing happened with Sanders when he first announced, and his coverage is still higher than most of the others.

It's not as complicated as you seem to want to make it.

[NYMinute]

31. Coverage doesn't translate into votes

The orange clown gets far more coverage than Biden but Biden is still beating him.

Biden is a known, trusted, safe candidate. A known quantity which is beloved by most Democrats.

Being Obama's VP has its tremendous advantage too.

Lastly, no one important watches Cenk Uygur. So that exposure of other candidates is wasted.

[DownriverDem]

33. Oh please

Folks want normalcy. The want someone who can beat trump. Biden can do that. We are now seeing folks 55 and up moving towards Biden. I just want to beat trump.

[BannonsLiver]

32. And attempting to unskew polls in the middle of the night

I don’t think it’s helping Bernie...err..,I mean Booker very much.

[athena]

51. Booker is an excellent candidate.

I'm surprised that a liberal would mock and disparage one of the best Senators we have on our side. Booker represents my state, and I think he would make an excellent President. We would be lucky to have him.

[Hortensis]

62. :) Pretty sure you misinterpret what's being mocked.

Glad to hear you like Booker, though. I want to like him more, but for some reason things he says keep grating on me, but I don't look for perfection or a new BFF in candidates.

A panel on 538 agreed pretty overwhelmingly that he's the one most likely to break out of that current 1% logjam. It's nice that 50% of PoC in a poll chose Biden, but I don't think anyone believes he'll keep most. They didn't flock right to Obama because of his color but made him earn their support.

[dsc]

12. First it is favorabliity but voting for Biden which is at 14

for example I have a favorable opinion of him but am undecided. I do think the demo here is more favorable to Buttigieg and Warren than the actual population (we are whiter, more likely to be LGBT, and wealthier than the population as a whole).

[DownriverDem]

16. Yep

The country is not far left. We need a candidate that is Center/Left.

[thesquanderer]

18. re: "we are whiter, more likely to be LGBT, and wealthier than the population as a whole"

How do you know? I was not asked about my color, sexual orientation, or income when I signed up.

[dsc]

23. there have been surveys taken over the years

and all of them have shown what I said to be accurate. It also makes sense given that one has to be online, own a computer or at least have use of one, and be able to devote time to politics all of which are correlated with wealth.

[DownriverDem]

14. Could it be

that many folks here are far left? They have different goals than me. I just want a candidate that can beat trump. Biden can do that. I would love to see a Biden/Harris ticket.

[Baclava]

17. I'm having blueberry pancakes and whipped cream for breakfast

I feel fine

[DownriverDem]

34. Huh?

I don't get your comment.

[Baclava]

38. What, me worry? These daily attacks on Joe only make me laugh n/t

[olegramps]

28. I have to agree with you. This board appears to be more left than center.

[themaguffin]

47. I think that would be a strong ticket

[LakeArenal]

19. Yes.

[Renew Deal]

20. There is no obligation to choose right now

Ranked choice voting is a false choice

[B Stieg]

22. 500+ reasons

It's more than 500 days until the election!

[DownriverDem]

35. Yes it is but

candidates have to get their supporters and the money. If you wait too long, it will be too late.

[Polly Hennessey]

24. I'm waiting for debates.

I am leaning towards Biden. He would make a great President. He is the stability we need after tRump. Jill Biden would bring dignity and intelligence back to the role of First Lady.

[R B Garr]

25. LOL!

What an interesting concern.

[BlueJac]

27. It is very early...

I want to see more about their ideas of leading.

[ehrnst]

44. You seem to have a very low opinion of DU. (nt)

[themaguffin]

48. His son won't be on the ballot. Next.

[ehrnst]

50. I can imagine what would happen if come of Levy's more 'interesting" tweets were

brought up on a Sanders thread...

[leftieNanner]

40. Perhaps because

Many of us chose our candidate at the outset and haven't changed.

[lapucelle]

41. It's not "favorability", and it's not "popularity".

It's "candidate preference".

Biden is "stuck" where he's been since he announced: he's the most preferred named candidate.

[CrispyQ]

42. I'm staying out of the primary fray.

I see pros & cons with all of our candidates & I will happily vote for whoever gets the nom. This country will not survive another term of Trump.

[Locrian]

43. same here

Total waste of time to post things in regards to candidates in the bubble of DU (just saying it's not the general public).
People here can think for themselves and have pretty much made up their mind on candidates.

[Apple Fritter]

49. I am kinda waiting for more time to pass before I make a choice. I mean it's over a year away. n/t

[Locrian]

58. yeah there's that too

Not that someone cant have a preference - but I'd be hard put to say for sure w/o hearing them discuss actual policy issues / debate vs popularity.

[Apple Fritter]

61. Yeah, that's what I am waiting for. On the stage with them together, talking and comparing n/t

[MFM008]

45. I will continue

To support Inslees climate change priority
Even if he is not the messenger.

[Eliot Rosewater]

52. More informed? What? Are informed people NOT likely to support Joe, is that what you are

saying?

[NurseJackie]

66. Of course that's what the message is. It's an ugly insinuation and a slam against Biden.

More informed? What? Are informed people NOT likely to support Joe, is that what you are saying?

Of course that's what the message is. It's an ugly insinuation and a slam against Biden. The OP is smearing Biden in a roundabout and passive-aggressive way. It's ugly. It's an attack, not only on Joe Biden, but an insult to those who support him. ---Ugh.

[Eliot Rosewater]

69. Where can we go where Democrats arent BASHED and SLAMMED?

[athena]

53. Because he is a centrist.

I'm surprised he's as popular as he is. He should be in the low single digits. DUers normally hate centrists.

https://prospect.org/article/fearful-democrats-and-false-allure-policy-centrism

The current front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, Joe Biden, is basing his candidacy on the proposition that he will be able to win over significant numbers of Republican voters, once they see that he's more moderate than other Democrats and realize what a repellent human being Donald Trump is.

(snip)

But Joe Biden has faith in the GOP. “This is not the Republican Party,” he says, testifying to his bond with “my Republican friends in the House and Senate.” Once Trump is gone, they’ll revert to their old responsible selves and become reasonable again. Just like they were when Biden was vice president and they pursued a strategy of total opposition to everything Barack Obama wanted to do, capping it off by refusing to allow his nomination to a vacant Supreme Court seat to even get a hearing. Those Republicans are the ones who are supposedly going to join with President Biden in a spirit of bipartisan compromise to do what is best for the country.

https://newrepublic.com/article/145199/joe-biden-wants-compromise-progressives-dont-want-hear-it

He said that “today it takes more courage to engage in compromise to achieve consensus on both sides.” And distancing himself gently from his own side, he noted that the left “came after me because I didn’t insist on everything” in raising taxes on the wealthy. “Guys, the wealthy are as patriotic as the poor,” he said. “I know Bernie doesn’t like me saying that, but they are.”

[Faux pas]

54. I am undecided

because I want to hear what all of them have to say. In my case, I'm saying out with the OLD and in with the NEW. I'm 70 btw, so no one can accuse me of ageism.

[highplainsdem]

55. Because DU in general is farther left than the Democratic Party and electorate in general.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

60. Speaking for myself, all the candidates piss me off in their own way and none of them inspires me

enough to take a stand with this many options.

[athena]

63. Are you for real?

The problem we have is not that our candidates are weak and uninspiring; it's the opposite. We have at least six candidates (Warren, Harris, Booker, Buttigieg, O'Rourke, Inslee) who would do extremely well in an election on their own, if it weren't for the fact that there are so many other exciting candidates. It's true that it's hard to choose one person; that's not because the candidates are annoying or boring but because they're all good people with strong records who are highly inspiring.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

65. I am for real! Part of it is because I almost never get my inspiration from politicians, and I feel

strongly that attaching my biggest hopes for direct action and direct change to someone I've never met is a great way to set myself up for disappointment. It's true, many of the candidates have great ideas. Many of them seem to be good people. Many of their flaws annoy me intensely. Picking one now would be a waste of my energy.

[athena]

67. OK, I see your perspective.

I suppose I'm not so jaded yet. I agree with not attaching hopes to candidates. (Too many people like the idea of a "leader". It's much better for democracy when people believe in the institutions and understand the electorate's power, rather than pin all their hopes on the next president or governor.) But I'm really proud of how much stronger the Democratic candidates are than, say, the Republicans in the 2016 primary. Our party always attracts the best and the brightest, and that can also be seen when one compares Democratic House and Senate members to their Republican counterparts.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

68. "I suppose I'm not so jaded yet."

[NurseJackie]

64. "stuck"

Why is Biden stuck at 14% favorability here on DU?

"stuck"

[Gothmog]

70. Washington Post-Opinion: Voters aren't playing along with the media narrative

Link to tweet

The latest Hill-HarrisX poll shows former vice president Joe Biden opening up a 32-point lead over Sanders, whose claim to the party’s heart is evaporating before our eyes. The latest Morning Consult poll shows Biden expanding his share to 40 percent (up 4 points from the previous week) and Sanders tumbling to 19 percent (down from 27 percent in February). In other words, available evidence suggests that at present the predicted story lines aren’t emerging.....

The most reliable voters — African American women — have little affection for Sanders, nor have they automatically gravitated to African American candidates to the left of Biden. They know Biden, they like him and so far they are content to reward him with their support after his eight years of service in the Obama administration.

The lack of appeal among African American candidates is now a significant problem for Sanders and for other progressives such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg. (The latest Quinnipiac poll found, “Biden had the support of 42 percent of nonwhite respondents, more than 30 points ahead of his nearest rival, Warren. Sanders, who struggled with nonwhite voters during his 2016 campaign, had only 7 percent support.”)

In short, in going far to the left, Sanders and other candidates misfired not only with older, more moderate whites but also with the critical African American electorate. The media likewise has overestimated the influence of the far left and failed to appreciate the centrist bent of both white and African American voters.

[TSIAS]

72. DU doesnt represent the entire population

Real hardworking Americans are supporting Biden. Also, Russian trolls are looking to divide us by supporting candidates other than Biden.

[aikoaiko]

73. We remember things the average voter doesn't.

He may end up being our guy and I’ll vote in the GE for him, but I remember protecting credit companies from their bad lending practices over regular people, letting down Anita Hill, and his weird distinction about northern and southern segregation. Don’t get me started on weed.