How Joe Biden could win the battle but lose the war to Trump in 2020

[uawchild]

KEY POINTS:

* Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman is challenging two broadly-accepted understandings about Joe Biden and the 2020 presidential race.

* That Biden’s moderation muddies his chance to lead a left-leaning Democratic Party, while his broad acceptability and blue-collar appeal makes him the strongest Democrat against Donald Trump.

* But the opposite could be the case - circumstances make his chances of winning the nomination strong, but his age and moderate views could dampen voter enthusiasm in the general election.

* The Democrats best-equipped to beat Trump, Wasserman says, include a young gay man and a young black woman who make party traditionalists nervous.

In Sept. 2017, with many political analysts still preoccupied by President Donald Trump’s blue-collar base, David Wasserman identified something else: the Democrats’ burgeoning white-collar base.

The Cook Political Report elections expert envisioned the looming 2018 campaign as the “Year of the Angry White College Graduate.” And that’s precisely what the mid-term elections became, handing Democrats control of the House of Representatives.

Now Wasserman is challenging two broadly-accepted understandings of the 2020 presidential race: that Joe Biden’s moderation muddies his chance to lead a left-leaning Democratic Party, while his broad acceptability and blue-collar appeal makes him the strongest Democrat against Trump.

Both notions, he argues, have it backwards: the former Vice President holds a strong position for the nomination race, but less so for a general election. The Democrats best-equipped to beat Trump, he adds, include a young gay man and a young black woman who make party traditionalists nervous.

Biden’s early polling surge has dented skepticism that he can win the Democratic nomination on his third try over three decades. But only slightly.
...

The case extends to his age, currently 76, which would make him the oldest president to take the oath of office if he wins. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, gently drawing an age contrast with Biden, calls herself “a candidate for our times.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/07/how-joe-biden-could-win-the-battle-but-lose-the-war-to-trump-in-2020.html

[WeekiWater]

1. Couldn't make it past this gem.

The Cook Political Report elections expert envisioned the looming 2018 campaign as the “Year of the Angry White College Graduate.” And that’s precisely what the mid-term elections became, handing Democrats control of the House of Representatives.

[uawchild]

2. lol Yeah, tell me about it

lol Yeah, it's always about the white people this year, according to the pundits, eh?

Only white men approaching 80 years of age can save us, I know, its crazy making. -rolls eyes-

This assumption that the Democratic Party can't nominate a younger candidate, a person of color, and perhaps even, dare I say it... a WOMAN is ignoring whom the heart of our party actually is.

[WeekiWater]

3. It's the second sentence that is simply foolish. NT

[loyalsister]

23. There's a lot of condescension among pundits

"We know what's best for everyone (especially people who have always been underrepresented and youth)."
It baffles me that it all seems to be based on tradition -as if we have been operating with a fantastically successful strategy.

[BlueTsunami2018]

4. If you can't get "enthusiastic" about ANY Democrat running against Тяцмр, then fuck you.

Because your priorities are garbage.

Seriously.

[lkinwi]

5. Well said!

[obnoxiousdrunk]

11. +1. N/T

[mobeau69]

16. There's a difference between motivation and enthusiasm.

Motivation is born by the opponent; enthusiasm by the candidate. It's up to them.

[marylandblue]

26. Like or not, we depend on voters who don't read DU and might not like our standard bearer

Whether it's Biden or someone else.

[JI7]

27. as if it requires enthusiasm to simply vote

those types are also usually attention whores.

[tymorial]

32. I call bullshit

First of all no one is saying that they would not vote for buy them or Sanders in the general if they managed to win the nomination. Second, age is absolutely illegitimate issue and any claims other why is foolish. Age increases the likelihood of illness and or death. This is a fact and no amount of whining or stamping of feet is going to change this reality. Further it is also a reality that our country needs stability and it is less likely that we will have this with an older candidate that is approaching being octogenarian let alone becoming one in office.

You like Biden oh, you like Sanders that's great. There's no problem with people supporting their candidate of choice but pretending age isnt an issue is denialism. Accept the reality. People did not relish having an 80 year old in office in this crucial time.

[mobeau69]

6. "...the former Vice President holds a strong position for the nomination race,

but less so for a general election. The Democrats best-equipped to beat Trump, he adds, include a young gay man and a young black woman who make party traditionalists nervous."

[uawchild]

7. It's almost like the author feels President Obama wasn't a fluke!

Last edited Tue May 7, 2019, 05:39 PM - Edit history (1)

Good point. People who say Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg can't win this time, I bet, I just bet, said the same thing about candidate Barack Obama.

[obnoxiousdrunk]

12. Comparisons to

Obama don't work. Obama was a once in a lifetime candidate.

[marylandblue]

33. Why not? It could be like back-to-back 100 year storms.

Some people feel Buttigieg is a once in a lifetime candidate, others say O'Rourke or Warren.

I know a lot of people felt that about Obama, but they couldn't know for sure until he won.

[blue neen]

15. His name is Barack.

.

[uawchild]

18. I am the typo kink

lol I was actually trying to type: I am the typo king. lol

Good lord, I can't type.

Thanks for the correction.

[WeekiWater]

9. People who don't know Buttigieg well don't understand how he has built connections from within...

the party. He has worked hard on it. It's why he is not feared as an outsider and a lot of people like myself are excited about him. He is a coalition builder and party insider at a really young age. He is going to play a big role in the future of our party.

[mobeau69]

13. "a really young age" and "the future of our party"

Good example of using faux praise to cloud what is really just bashing.

The "future" is now.

[WeekiWater]

19. Not one word of what I said was bashing.

Sorry that’s how you see it.

The present is actually now

Go Mayor Pete!

[MFM008]

8. How about

None of this poo pooing any of our candidates compared to the maggot.
Biden. Sanders
Harris. ANY ONE is a MILLION times
Better than the trash in the white house.

[LakeArenal]

10. Love how people not for Biden love to tell him what he needs to do....

Just like Meghan McCain loves to tell democrats what they need to do....

[qazplm135]

14. Whether it's my preferred candidate, Biden or even Bernie who I do not like

if you cannot get motivated for whomever is running against Trump in 2020 then you are worthless to me.

If it's Bernie, then even I am going to be all feeling the Bern because it's fucking Trump.

Period. Full stop.

So if your voter enthusiasm is "dampered" by Biden v Trump, then that's a "you" problem not a Biden (or Bernie or anyone else) problem.*

*Using the general term you.

[highplainsdem]

17. Wasserman's analysis is laughable. He says Dems have to "avoid the taint of coastal elitism."

Quoting from the article:

His formula discounts chances for Biden but also top rivals such as Sanders, the Democratic socialists from Vermont. Sens. Warren of Massachusetts and Kamala Harris of California, he adds, “probably can’t cut it in the general election because of their elitism.”

[Cha]

28. Anyone who says "elitism" for the Dems

is full of Shyte.

So who is the one going to win against trump in the GE according to Wasserman?!

[highplainsdem]

29. He likes Pete Buttigieg, Stacey Abrams, and Amy Klobuchar.

[Cha]

31. Oh that's the "young Black Woman"

he was talking about. Didn't know Stacy was in the race.

[emulatorloo]

20. I bet these "Get Biden!" pundit pieces are going to have the opposite of their desired impact.

At least for me, the more anti-Biden msm hitpieces and the more tweets from questionable Stein 2016 supporters I see, the higher Biden moves up on my list.

[highplainsdem]

21. Agree. And btw, this one is also "Get Sanders and Warren and Harris!" -- as I pointed out in my

reply right above yours.

[uponit7771]

25. +1

[crazytown]

22. For heaven's sake, Biden will win the GE if he gets the nomination.

Those who would constructt clever arguments to the contrary are engaged in political masturbation

[BeckyDem]

24. Biden will not win the primary race.

[Gothmog]

30. From the article cited in the OP

This same analysis applies to sanders

His formula discounts chances for Biden but also top rivals such as Sanders, the democratic socialist from Vermont. Sens. Warren of Massachusetts and Kamala Harris of California, he adds, “probably can’t cut it in the general election because of their elitism.”

I still think that Biden/Harris ticket will win

[NYMinute]

34. Someone is hunting for anti-Biden screeds

and posting them here but it is not going to help Bernie Sanders -- strike that - I mean Cory Booker.

[Cha]

35. No kidding!

[NurseJackie]

37. Ha!

[Cha]

36. Crystal ball seers

and fortune tellers abound.