Why aren't Harris and Booker doing better in South Carolina?

[crazytown]

Yes I know black communities are different right across the nation, but I would expect Harris and Booker to be ahead of Buttigieg and Warren.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/south-carolina/

[Demsrule86]

1. I wouldn't vote for a woman just because she was a woman....maybe some of that.

The POC voters that I know and have worked with are moderate to conservative. And Biden is part of the Obama coalition.

[ecstatic]

2. Because trump. Nothing is more important than getting trump out.

If Harris and Booker do great in the debates and put up a strong performance in the first primaries, things could change.

[marylandblue]

3. Biden has the Obama halo and familiarity.

Maybe more familiarity with the other candidates will change that.

[bitterross]

4. I'd have to look at the underlying data to make a comment

My gut feeling is it's South Carolina and they are a woman of color and a man of color. So them not doing well makes logical sense to me on the surface.

[IronLionZion]

5. More info about the poll:

And it seems like Sanders is #2 in most states: Iowa, NH, NV, when one would think his support would overlap with Biden's.

http://firehousestrategies.com/may-2019-survey/

The polls was 568 likely primary voters via landline, cell, and text who voted in Dem primaries in 2018 or 2016. So that would miss folks who didn't vote, moved into the state, or were under 18 back then.

Our most recent VP also has the best name recognition with nonpolitical folks outside of DU.

[crazytown]

6. So it's very small sample of SC. about 200 people

with no way to check the internals?

[IronLionZion]

8. The link I posted had some good findings about the internals

The Biden Surge: We asked Democratic primary voters who they favored among the eight highest-profile Democrats who have already announced their candidacies. According to our survey, former Vice President Joe Biden has boosted his early lead in all three states. Biden’s best state is South Carolina, where he has 48% support (36% in February), followed by IA with 35% (25% in February), and New Hampshire at 34% (22% in February). This represents a double-digit boost in all three states over the past three months. After Biden, we find Bernie Sanders in second in all three states, in the low double-digits. Pete Buttigieg, who was not included in our first round, finished third in all three states with support ranging from 5% in South Carolina to 11% in Iowa. Elizabeth Warren comes in fourth, right behind Buttigieg in all three states, and has not changed in standing since February. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, had a steep drop since February, and now comes in fifth place. As with our earlier survey, Beto O’Rourke, Amy Klobuchar, and Cory Booker failed to break 5% in any of the three states.

The following table displays our results, as well as the change for each candidate since our February poll. Pete Buttigieg was not singled out in our February poll, and therefore has no change associated.

Biden is clearly surging and SC is his best state of the early states.

[Baclava]

7. 'Joe Biden Pivots to Courting Black Voters in South Carolina', maybe this is why

Joe Biden warned about threats to voting rights during his first campaign stop in South Carolina, where he’s counting on his long relationships with black leaders and his link to Barack Obama to carry him in the state’s crucial early 2020 Democratic presidential primary.

“We’ve got Jim Crow sneaking back in,” the former vice president said Saturday at a rally in Columbia, comparing new restrictions on voting to the racial segregation laws of the past.

Biden capped his first week as an official candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination with a weekend trip to the Palmetto State. He pivoted from appeals to the working class in the Rust Belt to courting black voters, who typically comprise a little more that half of the Democratic electorate in South Carolina.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-05/joe-biden-pivots-to-courting-black-voters-in-south-carolina

[crazytown]

11. We've got Jim Crow sneaking back in

is a great line - cutting to the quick of voter suppression.

[Laelth]

15. He doesn't need to pivot to appeal to Deep-South Democrats. He already has them.

His being Barack Obama's V.P. means A LOT to African American voters in the South.

-Laelth

[crazytown]

18. I think voter suppression is something

candidates should be talking about.

[Laelth]

21. Me too. I also think that the African-American community in the Deep South is very pro-Joe. n/t

-Laelth

[JI7]

9. they haven't had a chance to prove themselves

on A national level. Biden has becsuse he was vp and is more familiar for same reason.

[Renew Deal]

10. Do you also ask why more caucasian people aren't supporting caucasian candidates?

That's why.

[crazytown]

14. No. Why is that?

Maybe McCain and Romney were too white for rednecks?

[obamanut2012]

12. Buttigieg is not going to beat Harris in SC

It will be Biden and Harris and #1 and #2 in some orrder, with Warren taking third.

[Laelth]

13. Joe Biden was Barack Obama's V.P. That's it, and that's enough for SC Democrats.

Nobody is going to beat Joe Biden in the Deep South primaries. His being Obama's V.P. means a lot to African-American voters.

-Laelth

[Kaleva]

16. One could ask the same question about Obama back in 2007

" Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead over Sen. Barack Obama, her chief rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, is growing among African-American voters who are registered Democrats, and particularly among black women, a poll said Wednesday.

Sen. Hillary Clinton is the top choice of African-American Democrats, a new poll suggests.

Among black registered Democrats overall, Clinton had a 57 percent to 33 percent lead over Obama.....

The former first lady's strongest support among blacks came from black women, 68 percent of whom identified her as their likely choice, versus 25 percent who cited Obama, the senator from Illinois who is African-American. "

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/17/poll.blacks.democrats/

[2naSalit]

17. Probably because

of the same reason as successful voter suppression.

[crazytown]

19. This is a survey.

[peggysue2]

20. Joe Biden's advantage in SC has a lot to do with relationships he's . . .

nurtured over decades and his genuine loyalty and friendship with President Obama. I don't think it's so mysterious. People regardless of race support those who by word and deed have demonstrated good will and dedication to their particular needs and concerns. Joe Biden has done that over decades.

Hillary Clinton also had the support of the AA community. In 2008, however, once black voters realized that candidate Obama actually had a shot at the WH, the support shifted. President Obama's victory was historical in nature in the same way JFK's victory was a huge boost to Irish-American Catholics. Then in 2016, POC supported HRC overwhelmingly, especially black women.

Now we have an existential threat squatting in the White House. That threat applies to us all. For the Democratic electorate, the main concern is beating the hell out of Trump and his enablers because unless we do there will be no chance of healing or restoring the country, not to mention moving forward on any progressive policy.

At the moment, the majority of Dems believe Joe Biden has the best chance to win in 2020. As long as that holds, he'll be unstoppable.

[Jose Garcia]

22. It's still early. I suspect a lot of voters don't know that

Booker and Harris are African-American.