Some words of encouragement to supporters of candidates who seem to be down in the polls.

[DCofVA]

This is how it always starts. Name recognition is a huge draw in the early polls. It makes early front runners of the most unlikely candidates. Joe Liberman led the polls early on in 2004. People only knew him as Al Gore's VP pick. In 2008, crazy Rudy Giuliani bounded out of the gate and went straight to the front, kicking up mud in John McCain’s face until poor old Rudy had to pull up lame.

Occasionally, there will be a race where the candidate with the most name recognition manages to hang on to cross the finish line first. But all too often they fall short in the next big race, aka the General Election. This is particularly true for Democrats. Both Gore (2000) and Hillary Clinton (2016) started out of the gate in front and held on to win the Primaries. Unfortunately, their next race did not go so well for them (or us).

As far as the upcoming Primary race goes; the horses are still in the starting gate. Next month when the debates begin, that’s when the gates open. The early Primaries (next year) will be the first turn and then, it’s gonna be a real horserace.

The point of my post is; don’t get discouraged by early polls! Never let them lessen your enthusiasm. Voter apathy is just as deadly in the Primaries as it is in the General Election. Pick your favorite candidate and stick with them as long as they’re still in the running. If they pull up, pick another favorite from the field. We got so many great ones to choose from this time around.

[zipplewrath]

1. 1988

If you want to see an interesting year, go look at 1988. It was a tumultuous year for sure. Front runners do have a tendency to self implode. Alot can happen between now and next January.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. A lot can happen but it's disingenuous to compare the current state of the race to past races...

Mostly because we're seeing something that is incredibly different than past campaigns where there's a good amount of potential candidates - one candidate is dominating the field.

The fact Biden has the type of lead he has is almost unprecedented at this point in the game.

His margin currently is at a 26.8 average. That's insane for how many candidates there are. Despite there being sixteen candidates registering support, Biden nearly has 50% support overall.

Compare that to past open primaries (and I won't use 2016 since that was a two-person race).

2008:

At this point in 2008, Hillary did lead Obama - but the margin was far more narrower - she led by an average of about 13 points.

Hillary would go on to lose to Obama but Obama had built a sizable foundation for his eventual win. He was averaging 23% of the vote to Hillary's 36%. That currently is about ten-points higher than Bernie, the second-leading candidate, is polling nationally. And Bernie is as much a known figure currently as Biden - and both far more established than Obama in 2007.

In 2004, at this point in the race, Joe Lieberman was the national front-runner, with Kerry second. But Lieberman only had 20% national support (Kerry 14%), suggesting that there was a massive amount of untapped support out there and that Democrats were not ready to settle on a candidate:



What happened was that Lieberman sunk, Dean rose, and then sunk, and Kerry eventually out-lived 'em all to win the nomination.

The closest example we have right now is 1992's numbers and Bill Clinton's rise. At this point, Mario Cuomo was dominating the polls:



But again, we have a situation where Cuomo was well below Joe Biden's current figures - and only at 20% nationally. Clinton would surge, of course, and Cuomo eventually decided not to run but his lead never reached the level we've seen with Biden right now.

So, that 1988 race? It was a bottleneck at the top:



Hart, Jesse Jackson and Michael Dukakis were all within six-points of each other.

No consensus.

The fact is, in the past few open primary elections (with more than two major candidates), there's been zero consensus at this point in the game. This go around? Biden is reaching consensus level.

Now it may not last. Something could change. But, and not to jinx him, Biden is getting to the point where it'd take a historic collapse to not win the nomination.

[zipplewrath]

6. It's the collapse

I think really the allusion was to the number of collapses in that year. Biden, Hart, and really Gephardt all saw their campaigns either die or implode.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Biden was never a serious candidate in 88.

He didn't collapse any more than, say, Carol Mosely Braun did in 2004.

[zipplewrath]

11. He imploded

As did Hart. Self inflicted wounds.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. No he didn't...

Imploding meant he was at the top. He was never a front-runner. You can't implode from nothing. That's like saying Jim Webb imploded.

[zipplewrath]

31. You can't

Where do you get that definition. You can implode before you ever start. Imploding is just a self generated mistake that causes your campaign to fail.

[Drunken Irishman]

32. He was already likely out as a candidate before he imploded...

So, no, he didn't implode. This idea to push 1988, when Biden was polling at less than 2% nationally for most the race, as some counter-balance to 2020 is ridiculous. Biden wasn't going to be the nominee regardless of the Kinnock controversy.

https://www.nytimes.com/1987/08/31/us/biden-once-the-field-s-hot-democrat-is-being-overtaken-by-cooler-rivals.html?mtrref=en.wikipedia.org

Interesting enough, this article quotes Biden quoting Kinnock.

Biden was DOA even before the incident. And what dead is dead. You can't redie.

[Haggis for Breakfast]

22. Hart didn't implode.

He was SET UP.

[aikoaiko]

23. Wait? What? You mean the guy who said, ""Follow me around. I don't care. I'm serious."

while having an affair was "set up"?

[Haggis for Breakfast]

24. Wait ? What ? You mean you never heard of Lee Atwater ?

Who confessed before died, that he set Hart up to fall ??

Or you didn't read Matt Bai's book, "All the Truth Is Out" published in 2015 ??

FFS, they even made a movie about it, "Front Runner" with Hugh Jackman.

Get back to me after you've done the research.

[aikoaiko]

25. Hart knew he was caught and dropped out.

Nobody made Gary Hart have Donna Rice sit on his lap on the yacht trip.

[Haggis for Breakfast]

26. Actually, you're wrong about that too.

Matt Bai's book, "All the Truth Is Out," discusses that very photo-shoot and exactly how it came to pass.

As I said, do your research.


Don't bother me until you do.

[DCofVA]

17. Those lists include people who didn't even run for President at that time

Like Hillary in 2004.

[Drunken Irishman]

18. They were still part of the polling.

Either way, you're unlikely to find a primary where a candidate has the lead Biden does currently...at least in a race with more than two major candidates.

[Demsrule86]

5. As we lost 1988, not a thing I want to explore. I want to win period...not even interested

In policy. All Democrats policy is fine. But Biden can win. He was VP four years ago. This is about a return to sanity...Trump must go.

[zipplewrath]

7. Well look at the track record here

Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, HRC were all the establishment candidates with high name recognition. Bill Clinton and Obama were both the "new blood", often running against more established candidates. Name the last democrat who won the presidency on their third try.

[earthshine]

12. "Alot can happen between now and next January."

I predict that some underdog primary candidates will "break out" during the debates.

I further predict that Trump will do something dangerous and desperate (like start a war), which will complicate our ability to see into the future about the election.

There will be unforeseen gamechangers.

[zipplewrath]

13. Someone will implode

They'll get caught cheating on taxes, or wives, or something. Someone will say something supremely short sighted and it will sink their campaign. Someone will look flat in one or two debates and will fade quickly.

[Hoyt]

30. I bet Biden would have done better than Dukakis in 88 (I liked Dukakis).

[qazplm135]

2. it's way early

could be Biden, could be Bernie, could be Harris, could be Warren, could be Buttigieg or Beto.

That's probably the potential pool.

Biden could slip up and gaffe, Harris or Warren could have a big moment, Bernie could find a way to consolidate the majority of the progressive vote...polling right now isn't meaningless, but it's not particularly meaningful yet either.

[mtnsnake]

20. I agree Biden could slip up and gaffe but I think his kind of gaffes actually make him more likeable

They're usually not harmful gaffes but pretty funny instead. I think voters get a kick out of his gaffes. Joe's biggest problem is the big lead he has because it's so hard to hold onto leads, and once he starts slipping in the polls, someone else could rise to the top.

[redstateblues]

27. Harris had a big moment and it barely moved the needle

Lot of wishful going on there

[aikoaiko]

3. Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw new front runners

[redstateblues]

28. Kinda like all the talking heads upset because Biden is so far ahead

[Gothmog]

9. This is a race for delegates and remember that many states have a 15% threshold

Keep in mind that under DNC rules many states have a 15% threshold to get delegates. https://politicalwire.com/2019/05/13/why-biden-and-sanders-need-each-other/

“If New Hampshire Democrats voted today, and the most recent polling is correct, the only candidates who would get any delegates at all from the first-in-the-nation primary would be Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.”

“The two are not only leading the packed field of 2020 presidential contenders, but are the only contenders who have clearly separated themselves from the rest of the crowd in polling and surpassed the crucial 15 percent threshold that candidates need to hit to be awarded delegates.”

“And for all their differences, Sanders and Biden have a mutual interest in preserving their duopoly and using each other as foils. Sanders needs an establishment antagonist, while Biden, 76, may prefer running against the 77-year-old Sanders than 20 younger options.”

[TwilightZone]

10. While things could certainly change, this isn't like any other cycle.

22 candidates (so far). One candidate has roughly half the vote in the polls. The other 21 have the other half.

Pretty sure we haven't seen anything even remotely like this in the past, so comparing it to prior cycles is going to be problematic.

[honest.abe]

16. Plus the fact that Dem primary voters have one thing on their minds..

beat Trump. And most think Biden is one to do that. That likely wont change.

[Gothmog]

15. Washington Post-Opinion: Why Iowa is so important this time

Link to tweet

The most underappreciated rule in the Democratic presidential primary race is the 15 percent threshold. To get any delegates from a congressional district in a caucus or primary, the candidate must win at least 15 percent of the vote. The same 15 percent threshold applies for at-large delegates.

Take the current RealClearPolitics poll average for Iowa. Only two candidates statewide clear the 15 percent threshold. Behind them, a candidate such as South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 11.3 percent might meet the threshold in some districts to qualify for delegates.....

What does this all mean? There may be very few candidate who get any delegates in Iowa. While a candidate such as Buttigieg or former congressman Beto O’Rourke might claim bragging rights for third place, he might not get delegates. Failure to get delegates wouldn’t necessarily doom candidates going into New Hampshire, but if the pattern repeats in New Hampshire, you’ll see lesser candidates dropping out....

Second, Sanders is languishing in a distant second place. It’s not unforeseeable that he could be passed by Buttigieg and/or Warren and denied delegates in one of the first two states. That would be disastrous for his campaign, maybe fatally so

[DCofVA]

19. Biden's polls are high due to name recognition.

In the coming months, the voters will get to know all the candidates. When they’re debating, we’ll get to see how well they handle themselves, the strength of their character, convictions and policies. We’ll also get to know about their weaknesses and how they could be exploited in the General election. I have no doubt; the polls will change dramatically. I’m looking forward to a dynamic Primary season. I got my popcorn ready. Let the debates begin!

[redstateblues]

29. Bernie has very high name recognition

It’s working against him

[zentrum]

21. Good points. Thnx.