RCP Average National Polls - Biden dips below 40%

[crazytown]

[SouthernProgressive]

1. Pretty amazing considering the number of candidates.

Looks like the last Emerson and Fox poll showed him considerably lower.

[crazytown]

3. 22.7% lead

and excellent result.

[karynnj]

9. Dipping below 40 percent, which he earlier was slightly above might be more accurate

The takeaway should also be that he still is double digits above any other candidate. The Emerson poll is an outlier - especially when you look at Sanders support, which looks different than in other polls. Looking at the graph, even though there is a minor gain for Sanders recently, he is still far below where he was a few months ago.

It is plausible that these two polls might be pointing in the correct direction - and the race will become more competitive. However, there seems no real alternative candidate with significant momentum rising to be the prime competitor. Warren is moving higher, but that movement would need to become much stronger for her to become the alternative.

It is still very early. At this point, it may be Biden's to lose - meaning if his campaign or Biden personally make no significant mistakes, the nomination might be his. That may be like 2008, where had Clinton's campaign made no strategic errors, Obama would not have won even with an exceptional candidate and a very well run campaign. In addition, I doubt that Obama could have won had the non HRC vote been split between multiple candidates. ( Had Edwards not imploded before superTuesday, that day could have been the barrier to everyone but HRC that it was designed to be.)

Assuming Biden stays healthy and makes no major errors, the size of the field itself might make a 2020 "Obama" impossible. Note that if the current poll numbers, if similar at the state level, might mean that Biden gets far more than 40% of the delegates. Any candidate polling under 15% gets no delegates - the delegates are split between all candidates over 15%. (In 2008, this led Mark Penn to assume that HRC would get all of California's delegates -- because she was far ahead and he assumed Obama and Edwards would both fall below 15%.) In 2008, few opposing votes cast were thrown away. The size of the 2020 field - unless the majority of them fade very quickly - will make it hard for any alternative candidate to gain traction.

Iowa, because it is a caucus is LESS subject to this than the primaries. In Iowa, all people supporting candidates who can not get to 15% can go to another candidate in the second round.

[George II]

2. Still more than Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, and Sanders combined.

[highplainsdem]

4. The Emerson poll is the lowest for Biden there, and highly questionable. It actually found

Biden having less support than Sanders among black voters, which is so far off all the other polls that it was clearly an outlier and distorts the average.

[crazytown]

5. The results average out

The Hill has Biden at 46%. Quinnipiac had Sanders at 11%

[FailureToCommunicate]

6. Sanders drops like a stone and Biden's dip is the take-away?

[crazytown]

7. This post is an update of earlier RCP results

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287112711

[peggysue2]

23. LOL!!

Amazing, is it not? Framing is everything.

[DownriverDem]

8. Biden

has my support 100%. Look at all those polls. If he runs with a Dem progressive woman, they will win big time.

[LongtimeAZDem]

10. The numbers went pretty extreme after Biden's bounce; I expect they'll level off around +15

[crazytown]

11. If you look at each individual pollster

and compare the current poll to their previous one, ever one shows Biden’s support rising (and Sanders falling)

[LongtimeAZDem]

12. Agreed, but Sanders has a base that will not desert him, so the fluctuations will largely

be due to other candidate's positioning.

[highplainsdem]

15. I've seen poll analyses pointing out that Sanders is losing support to both Biden and Warren.

I agree he probably has a core base that won't desert him, but so far we don't know how small it is.

[LongtimeAZDem]

16. I'm betting it's around 14%, but I'd be happy to lose the bet and see it go lower

[Hortensis]

25. Yes, that's basically what I'm thinking.

In 2016 @20% of Sanders' primary supporters were "Sanders or walk/Dexit" types who refused to vote for Democrats and instead decamped to Trump or third party. Many have come back (obviously) and they'll stick with their leader until he drops out; but it's looking like he's weaker even with them.

As for the 3/4 of basically mainstream Dems who held Hillary as their second choice, most are no-shows this time. He's picked up some new young people, but those numbers are dropping a bit now too.

I'd be happy to lose this bet also, but other actors will once again be doing some really heavy investment in pulling support away from leaders to him.

[left-of-center2012]

13. OMG! Biden dips below 40% !!

Biden 39.1 to Sanders 16.4

[Bradshaw3]

14. Just loked at some 2007 polls and HRC had big leads

Most were double digit leads over Obama and one was as high as 19 percent. Oh, and one GE matchup had her losing to, get ready ... Rudy. So much for early polls.

[crazytown]

17. Rudy!

those were the days

[Cosmocat]

20. Hillary was a brittle public figure

Not saying she was brittle personally.

But, literally decades of right wing slander left her vulnerable when exposed to negative messaging while running as a candidate.

So, at the opening of her presidential campaigns, when there were a few years prior where she was not running, she started out strong, but when faced with negative messaging she dropped very quickly because people were so jadded about her from all the bullshit Rs piled on her during the course of her political career.

[Cha]

29. Wow.. way to insult Hillary with "brittle"..

And, what does this have to do with Biden?

[Cosmocat]

38. Wow, way to flat lie about what I posted

nm

[Cha]

39. lol.. you said it and then you accuse me

of a "lie".. everyone can see what you posted.

[Cosmocat]

41. except you, apparently

nm

[Cha]

30. Yeah, and then along came Obama..

He's not running this time.

[Bradshaw3]

31. It's not just 2007-2008

Since 1971, the candidate who was leading in the Democratic polls in the year prior to the election, other than incumbent Presidents or Vice-Presidents, failed to earn the nomination. There are no Democratic incumbents running this time.

https://www.pewresearch.org/2007/02/14/how-reliable-are-the-early-presidential-polls/

[Cha]

34. We're gonna see..

I do not have a crystal ball.. I can't predict.. only that things can change.

I bet Biden and his team know those stats, too.

[JI7]

35. Biden is kind of Similar to an Incumbant VP , i believe that's why his numbers are so strong

[Loki Liesmith]

18. Lol what's a moving average...

[crazytown]

19. A moving average

is not an average of 7 heterogeneous polls.

[Loki Liesmith]

22. Sure it is

[honest.abe]

21. Mainly due to that Emerson poll which in fact showed a big bump for Biden since its previous poll.

A new Emerson National Poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a bump from his official entrance into the race, taking back the lead over Senator Bernie Sanders. The poll finds Biden with 33% and Sanders with 25%. The April Emerson Poll had Sanders ahead of Biden 29% to 24% making this a 13 point swing in favor of the former Vice President.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/may-national-poll-biden-back-in-the-lead-for-the-democratic-nomination

[TwilightZone]

33. And it still looks like an outlier.

The trend is similar to the others, but their initial numbers were so far out-of-whack that it looks more reasonable now, though still off.

[LongtimeAZDem]

24. It should also be noted that, until a couple of weeks ago, the chart only went up to 35%

[Tiggeroshii]

26. He is beginning a downward trend

And sanders an upward one.

[John Fante]

27. The Emerson and Fox polls actually showed Biden extending his lead

over Bernie.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. At this rate Sanders will pass him by the Fourth Of July

In 2025.

[Hekate]

28. In a field of two dozen. I'm sure he's losing sleep.

[TwilightZone]

32. Emerson is an outlier.

RCP will continue factoring them into the equation, but it's pretty clear that their numbers are out-of-whack with pretty much everyone else. This also isn't the first poll of theirs that's been way off the rest.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. Emerson is a crap poll

Link to tweet

[redgreenandblue]

36. Biden looks like the Bitcoin chart.

I won't be investing just yet

[LongtimeAZDem]

42. Looks like the bump is receding, and the levels are returning more to where they were

before Biden announced.