Howard Dean on CNN re latest Quinnipiac poll

[mobeau69]

"Too early. Joe has 100% name recognition." Voters tend to like something new.

Wouldn't be surprised if one or two not even showing up in the polls now move up on the radar after the debates.

Trump is the most corrupt president ever.

[corbettkroehler]

1. Now, More Than Ever, We Need His 50-State Strategy

It would be THE BEST way to retake the Senate.

[mobeau69]

3. Howard Dean is a great Democrat.

Too bad that one silly gaffe in Iowa tanked his presidential ambitions.

[hedda_foil]

18. That was no gaffe. It was an engineered hit job.

The sound was edited in a way that removed the tremendous room noise and amped up his tell so it looked and sounded bizarre. I watched it live and there was no resemblance between reality and the tampered clip that was played on a virtually continuous loop.

[karynnj]

24. Without it the story would have been just as bad. It would have been Kerry's win and his implosion.

He lost a race the national audience expected him to win by 20 points! If anything, the story likely hurt Kerry, because it took a lot of the coverage from his victory.

[mahina]

28. This. Fact.

[karynnj]

22. He did not lose because of that. He lost Iowa 38 to 18, when people expected him to win

Even with no scream, THAT result likely doomed his campaign. He already was declining in NH. Kerry got a lift from his Iowa win and won NH. At that point, Dean having blown through a huge money advantage, made a strategic decision to not actively contest the next set of contests because they were a set of states not favorable to New Englanders.

These states were SC, OK,MO,NM,AZ,ND, and DE. Had Edwards and Clark split them, there would be no one frontrunner and if Dean took the next set, he could move to become that frontrunner. As soon as Kerry won 5 of the 7, it was clear he would be the nominee.

[TwilightZone]

4. The only way to retake the Senate is to convince qualified people to run.

The math is already working against us (we essentially need a sweep), and top-tier candidates aren't lining up (yet) to run in states we would need to take it. We somehow need to change that.

[corbettkroehler]

5. Agreed - And The 50-State Strategy Would Help Build The Bench Of Candidates

Once they see the mechanism in place for campaigns down the ballot, they will feel confident in jumping to the statewide level.

[GulfCoast66]

9. We just won the house using a 50 state strategy.

We ran the type of democrats that can win in moderate districts. Which means most of our new freshmen are in the moderate wing of the party. The liberal firebrands you hear so much about won in safe districts.

Tom Perez helped engineer it and I am glad for it. We need more of it.

And if we use it to take the senate, which we will, you will see more moderate Democratic Senators.

That is where the party and nation is right now.

[corbettkroehler]

30. Thrilled With The Victory But Florida Does Not Number Within The 50 States

The DNC's overall efforts in the Sunshine State are moribund.

[GulfCoast66]

33. Not as bleak as often portrayed.

We have decreased the republican lead in house members to 1- 14 to 13. Mainly by running moderate democrats in moderate districts with DNC help.

And we won the Agriculture Commissioner.

And the DNC can’t keep us from hurting ourselves. The governors race was ours to take. But we made 2 mistakes. We failed to nominate Graham who would, in my opinion have won. And once Gilliam was nominated he could have won. But by then he had tied himself to Bernie Sanders by appearing with him to try to win the primary he already had wrapped up. After that he never could find a way to shake the socialist label. Really could not try since he happily appeared with Sanders.

If nothing else good comes from it, it squelched those on the left who claimed incessantly with no proof that to win we need more liberal candidates everywhere. Florida proved that wrong.

[BlueMTexpat]

27. Perez seems to be taking

Dean's lessons to heart. His DNC leadership helped immensely with 2018 wins at all levels in many "red" states.

I'm so glad to see this. It's apparent that those in charge of the DNC since Dean stepped down in 2009 were only paying lip service to a 50-state strategy. Perez and his team are actually implementing one.

[Indygram]

32. Beto has that kind of strategy

Go everywhere, no blue areas taken for granted and no red areas written off. Go everywhere and show up with the courage of your convictions to listen, learn and sell progressive policies by explaining how they would help everyone.

He was incredible at his CNN town hall last night.

[TwilightZone]

2. Sanders has 100% name recognition, as well.

It's not the only factor influencing the polls.

I do agree that it's quite early. Anything can happen.

[mobeau69]

6. It's never just one factor and a lot can happen.

Rump could have an aneurysm and drop dead in the morning.

[TwilightZone]

8. Oh, I know it's never just one factor.

A few posters on DU keep insisting otherwise, however. "It's all name recognition at this point" is a common refrain.

[mobeau69]

10. I was agreeing with you. I just quoted Howard and, in his defense,

he didn't say that was the only factor either.

[TwilightZone]

11. And he knows better, of course.

And, he's also right that it's very early, of course.

This is a unique cycle - huge lead for one candidate in a race with two dozen candidates - so it's hard to apply any historical context to it. It's going to prove interesting, I'm sure.

[mobeau69]

12. The debates will be huge and the people of Iowa can surprise the pundits. nt

[TwilightZone]

13. Ugh, Iowa.

Home of Steve King (in fairness, NW Iowa is most of the problem there).

I really wish they didn't have as much (perceived) influence as they do. Ditto NH.

[mobeau69]

15. Most of the people around Iowa City, Cedar Rapids and Des Moines

are decent. I'll never forget the night when they went for Obama!

[karynnj]

25. Not that different than 2008, where Clinton had a similar lead

Sanders is no Obama and his presence likely makes it harder for any of the "fresh" candidates to gain momentum.

[TwilightZone]

31. There weren't two dozen Dems in the race.

The dynamic is completely different.

[karynnj]

36. There were over a dozen

In terms of people who could be considered serious, in addition to the top three, there were 3 second tier as accomplished as the current serious candidates, including Biden, Dodd and Richardson. In addition, there were some, like Vilsack, who dropped out early. There were others like Kucinich who were extremely unlikely.


Had all of them other than Clinton and Biden not failed early, Clinton would have been the nominee. Here, if all but one of the non Biden candidates fade in the early primaries, it could come to a two way choice. I think to work, Sanders will have to fade to insignificant.

[mr_lebowski]

17. Oh, yeah, keep talking MoBeau69 ... that was really hot, right there ...

[smirkymonkey]

19. If only.

This is my daily dream.

[Honeycombe8]

7. I do think name recognition has a lot to do with both Biden & Sanders leads.

But Biden has such a large lead that it's hard to see him losing the lead, even after losing ground.

[mobeau69]

14. It'll be a lot closer than the early polls are showing.

If one of the fresh faces that can inspire enthusiasm gets a bump it can snowball into caucus time.

[Honeycombe8]

26. Psssst...

just between you and me, I wouldn't be upset if it were Pete.

[Hortensis]

38. You guys and Dean of course have to be right that Biden

will lose a significant part of his lead as this wears on, spread around a few competitors as they get a lot more exposure. Democrats have lots of interesting flavors to browse before we finally have to settle on one.But I'm doubting Biden will ever lose the lead itself.

Sanders should continue to lose support.

And our first debate is less than a month away now.

[oasis]

16. Can't blame Howard for conjuring up a horserace. Candidates who hold

commanding leads tend to be too boring for cable💵news💵viewers.

[marylandblue]

39. Nobody knows more about losing early leads than Howard Dean.

[oasis]

41. I've never seen an ounce of bitterness from Howard Dean about

how things turned out for him in 2004.

[marylandblue]

42. I haven't seen any either. But he must have been very disappointed.

Still, he seems to have learned a lot about political organizing from his experience.

[NYMinute]

20. Another consolation thread for someone who is cratering nt

[myohmy2]

21. I think...

...the Good Doctor has it right...

...

[JI7]

23. i would bet on Beto being the one

[KPN]

29. Maybe. He's not showing much in the polls thus far.

And he already has substantive star power. But there are a number of good candidates barely showing up in the polls right now. It’s going to be interesting once the debates get going for sure. I think Dean is right about this.

[Indygram]

35. I don't think we can really rely on polling after 2016

Beto is also very popular among young voters, many of which who will be voting for the first time and most of which who simply don't get polled. Even in Texas the polling there had Cruz ahead of him by a much larger number right up to that election. You'll see his numbers go up after the CNN town hall. He also has an HBO documentary in 6 days that will help even more. He's made a bunch of great new hires, too.

[KPN]

40. Valid points. We'll see re Beto I guess.

[MrsCoffee]

34. They won't be in the debates if they don't show up in the polls.

[mobeau69]

37. He knows that. So, obviously, he was referring to those who are polling

at or near the bottom right now.