Three New Polls Prove the Biden Bump is Real and Lasting -- and Republicans are Nervous

[Vidal]

I just looked at the RealClearPolitics "latest polls" section and it jumped out at me how large Biden's lead over Sanders (and all the others) still is.

After his formal announcement, Biden got a big bump in the polls, and many pundits said it wouldn't last. But it seems to be lasting. It seems to be solidifying.

Over the last few days here is the Biden lead in three top polls:

1. Quinnipiac: Biden leads by 19 over Sanders. (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us05212019_uhlw22.pdf/)

2. Morning Consult: Biden leads by 20 over Sanders. (https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/8394672.pdf)

3. Fox News: Biden leads by 18 over Sanders (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-up-by-double-digits-in-democratic-race)

Also, last week, the Quinnipiac Pennsylvania poll showed Biden with a 26 point lead over Sanders. (https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2620)


I think it is safe to say that Biden's lead is not deteriorating. He was helped by the very positive, upbeat speech he gave at his kickoff in Philly.

Biden has been very successfully criticizing Trump, and Trump is getting very nervous. In fact, the GOP in general is acting very nervous as the look at a possible big Blue Tsunami in 2020.

Most of the other candidates at this point realize that attacking Biden will not help them win any Democratic primaries, and this will help Biden even more over time.

[mtnsnake]

1. There is no poll in the entire world that can prove anyone's lead is a lasting one this far out.

[Cha]

2. But, "it's only

name recognition".. I see that a lot.

But, if it were only "name recognition".. why isn't Sanders doing better?

Thanks for your OP, Vidal

[comradebillyboy]

10. Too many people see him for who he really is

this time around.

[Cha]

11. Exactly! And, Thank

Goodness for that!

[Vidal]

13. I agree

You are welcome, Cha, and I agree that it is more than mere name recognition.

At this point a large number of true Democrats genuinely like (and prefer) Joe Biden.

Maybe it's just because he's a swell guy -- and he has the Obama halo.

[Cha]

14. Biden has the President Obama's

Last edited Wed May 22, 2019, 11:03 AM - Edit history (1)

VP Seal of Approval!

And, there's this..

New Quinnipiac poll shows Biden ahead in all voter groups except "very liberal" Dems

Among those who say they're paying a lot of attention, he leads Sanders and Warren 42% - 8% - 15%.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=129464

[Vidal]

16. Agree

That is a very important poll with a lot of data, which is almost all good news for Biden.

[Chipper Chat]

3. I feel most of the candidates privately concede Biden will be the pick.

They want to get exposure for 2024 or 28.

[Chipper Chat]

4. I will be 88 in 2028 and would love to see

A black woman or a gay man as President before I die.

[FBaggins]

5. You say that you just looked at the RCP tracking

Did you happen to look at the graphs? They reflect a "real" bump to be sure... but not one that is "not deteriorating".

He's lost seven points of lead in the last week or so.

[DownriverDem]

7. Biden

is our best hope for beating trump. He won't take any of trump's crap. I hope he gets the nomination.

[honest.abe]

9. That RCP graph is misleading.

Here are Biden's numbers since announcing:

35,39,35,33,39,46,40,44,38,39,36

Remarkably consistent and to make any inference regarding his support "deteriorating" is not valid considering all the variation due to different pollsters and methodologies involved. Those apparent ups and downs are certainly not statistically significant.

[FBaggins]

15. You've missed the burden of proof

I suppose it's worth pointing out that a dataset that includes 33 and 46 (the matching Sanders support in those two polls is 25/14) is not "remarkably consistent" in a 24-way race. Or we could discuss that the same pollster is in there twice (Quinnipiac) and that dropped from a 27 point lead to a 19 point lead. Or we could recognize that the point of a rolling average is to mute the impact of "variations due to different pollsters and methodologies involved"

But there's no need... because it's the OP's claim that the data "proves" that his lead is real (true), as well as lasting/not deteriorating. It certainly does not do that.

[honest.abe]

17. You've missed the numbers.

I am referencing Biden actual poll numbers, not his "lead" over Sanders.

So, yes even those Quinnipiac polls are quite consistent with Biden's numbers going from 38 to 35. Also you failed to notice that Morning Consult has 4 polls in there which are remarkably consistent at 36,40,39,39. That would be the best test of any drop in Biden's support.

I am not saying these polls prove anything but clearly his support is not "deteriorating".

[Vidal]

18. Thank you!

That chart tells the story about what has happened over the past few weeks. There is remarkable consistency, with a small number of outliers.

I guess the word "proof" can be interpreted in different ways. Maybe I used the wrong word. But it does show something important, which is that Biden has strong ongoing support, for now.

[honest.abe]

19. Yes, agreed. I really dont see how anyone closes that gap.

Biden is a good debater so I dont think the debates will make much difference. Perhaps if he makes some humongous embarrassing gaffe some voters might get nervous. Short of that I think he cruises to the nomination.

[FBaggins]

23. Not at all. I may just be better at reading them

The 38-46 figures are dropping off the rolling average and being replaced with notably lower ones. That Morning Consult number (39) is now the only one above 35. (three 33s and two 35s).

Keeping in mind that his support for the two months prior to announcing averaged a very consistent 31% and his current rolling average of 34.7 represents well over half of his "bounce" fading in only two weeks. Making clear that statements that the RCP data "proves" a "lasting"/"not deteriorating" bump unsupportable.

[honest.abe]

26. LOL.. you are trying too hard.

[FBaggins]

33. How about now?

His polling average is now right where it was in mid-April (before announcing).

[honest.abe]

34. LOL.. still trying!

Biden has a commanding lead over his closest rivals and Sanders is dropping like a rock.

Biden is cruising to the nomination!

[FBaggins]

36. What happened to "I am referencing Biden actual poll numbers, not his "lead" over Sanders. "

Lol indeed.

Maybe someone stole your DU credentials? You should report it!

[honest.abe]

38. You do realize polling numbers fluctuate??

Joe is doing great despite a few hiccups.

You seems desperate to claim he is not. Curious.

[FBaggins]

39. Lol... that was the point of my initial reply

to the ridiculous claim that one particular candidate's announcement bump was "real and lasting"

So welcome back to the reality party. Yes... numbers fluctuate... and when they change due to factors without permanence (like candidacy announcements) they tend to revert to about their prior level.

Yes, Biden seems to have a clear lead, and absent bad news I would be happy to vote for him if it continues through the NC primary...

... but nothing of substance has happened yet. Actual debates followed by winnowing... followed by additional debates and public attention... followed by actual primary voting... will absolutely shake things up substantially.

[honest.abe]

40. If you recall I wasn't defending the OP, I was challenging your claim..

that his lead was deteriorating. Joe numbers have been remarkably consistent even with all the attacks and minor missteps and craziness that goes with a primary campaign.

Glad to hear you will be "happy to vote for him".

[FBaggins]

41. Then why post at all at this point?

His lead WAS "clearly deteriorating" whether we pretend now that the appropriate measure is really his lead (down from 28% to a tad over half that) or absolute support (which peaked at 41.5% and is now back to ten points below that where it was pretty steadily for roughly the two months prior to announcing)

Joe numbers have been remarkably consistent

They were remarkably consistent for pretty much the entire year... and then they bumped up when he formally announced... and then they returned to where he was before the announcement - where I would expect them to stay "remarkably consistent" through the end of the year IF it weren't for the fact that some odd format debates are about to kick off. I have no idea how significant the early debates will be (either in viewership or noteworthy changes).

[honest.abe]

42. Because you are wrong once again.

Your original comment about "clearly deteriorating" was made nearly a month ago. Subsequent polls after that comment had Biden at "33,33,38,36,32,38,35".. clearly NOT deteriorating.

Then Joe had a relatively bad week with a couple of missteps regarding his climate plan and Hyde amendment which then took his numbers down a bit in more recent polls.

However even with that "bad week" he is still in a commanding position with huge leads over his closest rivals.

Not sure why you insist on trying to make something out of nothing. Still very curious.

[FBaggins]

43. Sorry... you have a serious case of confirmation bias

Subsequent polls after that comment had Biden at "33,33,38,36,32,38,35" .. clearly NOT deteriorating.


Compared to 39,38,44,40,46,39 that immediately preceded that string... yes, there was clear deterioration.

Then Joe had a relatively bad week with a couple of missteps

Sorry. His polling average has lost ten total points since his post-announcement peak. He had already lost seven of those ten points when you were trying to tell me that things were not deteriorating. He's lost only half that much since there. You can't spin that as stable up until 5/23 and then "had a bad week".


As I pointed out at the time. The site that the OP referred to has a very convenient graph. It's clear that the story is "big bounce from an announcement that almost as quickly subsided back to where he was"... it is NOT "bounce that was 'real and lasting'" NOR is it "Boucne that WAS lasting until he had a bad week".

[honest.abe]

44. You are trying way too hard to make a meaningless insignificant point.

You should focus your energy on our real enemy... assuming you are on our side.

BTW, the full list of numbers preceding were: "35,39,35,33,39,46,40,44,38,39,36".

For some reason you left off a few.

Ciao.

[LanternWaste]

35. "I may just be better at reading them" in a way which better suits your narrative.

[FBaggins]

37. That's an odd reply...

... considering the fact that the month since the OP has shown my narrative to be correct.

[DownriverDem]

6. I sure hope his lead holds

Now we need a strong Progressive Dem woman to run as VP.

[Turin_C3PO]

8. Good news!

I want this primary to be over as quick as possible so we can focus solely on Trump.

[Cha]

12. Excellent point.. not drag

on and on and on.

[Demsrule86]

20. I agree witht that...we don't need people who can't win to beat up our nominee in the primary.

[Partisan D]

21. JOEmentum!!

...wait that's too Lieberman-esque...


Seriously, I love The Biden. I think Buttigieg may be the only one to topple him - he's damn charming. Otherwise... Biden 2020!

[Gothmog]

22. Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democratic Party has available

[Cha]

28. And, the reason is..

for #1.. he's qualified to hit the ground running!

[nolabear]

24. I wonder if part of Biden's appeal is what we want to believe about ourselves.

I think often about why I support him. I believe all the important things, he’s a decent man, a servant, an actual experienced, compassionate, thoughtful human being with a built in set of relationships domestic and foreign that will quickly let us start reversing the damage done by the current horror show.

But I also do want to believe that we are REALLY smart, involved, unite-able people except for the damaged followers of a damaged man, and America is still America. And I think that memory and intention is a springboard for the progress we more left want to make and seek to cajole the more moderate Dems into feeling secure about.

[Scurrilous]

25. K&R

[Maru Kitteh]

27. I do love me some Joe. nt

[Cha]

29. Have you seen this, Vidal?

Link to tweet

[NYMinute]

30. But ... but ....

Biden was a segregationist and against busing!!

(That smear lasted only a few nanoseconds although some tried very hard to make it stick)

[Cha]

31. Wow.. I didn't even

think about that.. good grief!

I just thought it was very cool.

Thanks, NYMinute!

[Vidal]

32. No I didn't

but thank you. that is amazing.

Biden will kick butt with black voters