New Quinnipiac poll shows Biden ahead in all voter groups except "very liberal" Dems

[highplainsdem]

and in that one Warren currently leads, 30% to 22% for Sanders and 19% for Biden.

Not sure what would worry Sanders more -- that he's losing that group to Warren, or that Biden's almost tying him with Dems who consider themselves very liberal.

Other internal numbers from this new national poll:

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2622

Biden leads with the "somewhat liberal" group, 26% to 22% for Sanders and only 9% for Warren.

Biden's far ahead with moderate/conservative Dems, 48% to 10% for Sanders and 6% for Warren.

Biden has a clear lead over Sanders and Warren with male voters (36% - 16% - 14%) and female voters (34% - 16% - 13%).

He has a clear lead with white voters (32% - 13% - 16%).

He has a clear lead with non-white voters (39% - 21% - 8%).

Whoops - just noticed he's tied with Bernie for voters age 18-49 (23% - 23% - 18%).

He has a clear lead with voters age 50+ (46% - 8% - 9%).

He has a clear lead with all three income groups surveyed:

<50k (40% - 21% - 10%)
50-100k ( 28% - 17% - 16%)
>100k (31% - 13% - 15%)


He also has a clear lead with people who say they're paying attention to the presidential campaign.

Among those who say they're paying a lot of attention, he leads Sanders and Warren 42% - 8% - 15%.

Among those who say they're paying "some" attention, he leads 33% - 19% - 16%.

Only among those who say they're giving the campaign little or no attention does he lose that lead to Sanders, with Sanders getting 28% of that inattentive group to 23% for Biden and 5% for Warren.


So...

The poll suggests that the more liberal and younger AND less attentive a voter is, the more likely they are to support Sanders.

If they're very liberal and young AND paying a lot of attention to the campaign, they're more likely to support Warren than Sanders.


But Biden's well ahead with most groups -- including the groups that vote most reliably.

And it's also important to note that he has a bigger lead over Sanders and Warren among people who are Democrats (37% - 15% -13%) than among Democratic-leaning indepedents, though he still leads with that group by a wide margin (30% - 19% - 13%).


And please don't try telling me this is all "name recognition" at this point.

Especially with his roughly 30-point lead among voters who say they're paying a lot of attention to the campaign.

[Peacetrain]

1. One of the more earnest Sanders supporters from 2016 that I know personally

is a 30 something millennial.. and is not supporting him this time round.. He is supporting Warren.. He told us, he had to have a more positive way to turn and could not afford the ulcers of the last election again.. not sure what he meant by that.. but I was a O'Malley supporter so.. you know how well that worked out for me

[highplainsdem]

3. Sanders does seem to be losing a lot of supporters to Warren.

[BlueMTexpat]

4. As well he should.

Warren is a candidate of substance and of unity.

[brooklynite]

22. Sanders claims to be a Socialist; Warren claims to be a Capitalist...

...could that have something to do with it?

[Peacetrain]

8. That is what I have been seeing online also..

[nolabear]

16. I'm glad. She has the ideas and principles without the cultiness.

I'm obviously a Joe supporter but I like Warren a great deal and I think her ideas are the future. I wish she was younger so she could see them along over the next couple of cycles. But with luck she'll bring along lots of others and remain a huge force in moving us left from a position of stability.

[LovingA2andMI]

26. Makes A Lot Of Sense....

Elizabeth Warren is a Democrat everyday, All Day. Sanders just runs in Democratic Primaries but really is a Independent.

[comradebillyboy]

29. Warren is superior to Sanders in every respect. I really can't understand

why any progressive would prefer Sanders over Warren.

[Cha]

2. Among those who say they're paying a lot of attention, he leads Sanders and Warren 42% - 8% - 15%.

Thank You for your analysis, highplains

[highplainsdem]

6. Thanks, Cha! I thought those numbers were especially important, given how often we

hear the argument that Biden's ahead only because people aren't paying much attention to the campaign.

[Cha]

9. I know.. I zeroed in on

that right away..

I see a lot of that even this morning.. that the "..only reason Biden is polling so high is name recognition". So that blows that right out of the water!

Mahalo!

[Kurt V.]

5. K&R

[LibFarmer]

7. He also polls badly in several other groups

unicorns, residents of frozen hell and flying pigs.

[highplainsdem]

15. LOL!

[thesquanderer]

10. Silver lining for Buttigieg... he's the only candidate other than Biden who...

...has higher favorables than unfavorables. This gives some cause for optimism as more people find out who he is.

[highplainsdem]

18. True. I like Mayor Pete, a lot.

[thesquanderer]

11. Unfathomable, 3% of polled Dems are "definitely voting for Trump"...

...even before they know who the Dem candidate will be.

[highplainsdem]

17. Yes, that's depressing. But the good news is that there are more disaffected Republicans

than disaffected Democrats.

[LovingA2andMI]

27. Probably, not really....

Democrats. People can lie to pollsters and polls.

[Vidal]

12. This cinches it

Right now Biden has a commanding lead among all Dems, and in the subgroups that matter most in the Dem. primaries.

The numbers are very compelling.

[TwilightZone]

13. The Sanders numbers for paying "a lot" of attention vs. "some" are interesting.

Paying a lot of attention, Biden leads Sanders and Warren 42% - 8% - 15%.

Paying "some" attention, Biden leads 33% - 19% - 16%.

That kind of blunts the claim of some here that the more people get to know Sanders, the better he'll do. Seems the opposite is the case, at least where this particular poll is concerned.

[highplainsdem]

14. It might suggest that much of Sanders' support is left over from 2016, and those

supporters think this is Sanders' turn and they don't really want to hear from, or about, any other candidates.

[DarthDem]

19. Another Day,

another bad poll for Senator Sanders. Hm. Strange!

[progressoid]

20. It's not name recognition.

It's the Obama connection. If he hadn't been Obama's VP, he'd be just another candidate in the 8-10% category.

[highplainsdem]

21. He only has "the Obama connection" because Obama thought Biden would be a good

president if anything happened to him.

That was one hell of an endorsement.

[NurseJackie]

28. "That was one hell of an endorsement." --- You're absolutely right about that!

That was one hell of an endorsement.

You're absolutely right about that!

No matter how much some people want to downplay it, they know that Biden has the advantage. For them to try and ignore it, or to tell others that it's "meaningless"... well... they're just whistling past the graveyard and trying to hide their own fear and dread.

[LanternWaste]

24. That's a creative allegation.

Can you support it with hard numbers or objective evidence?

[progressoid]

25. In 2008,

the best he did was finish 5th in Iowa with less than 1 percent support. He dropped out of the race that day.

If he hadn't been Obama's VP, he'd be as viable as Chris Dodd or Bill Richardson.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_2008_presidential_campaign

[NurseJackie]

23. And that's what he needs to win! Why would he want to spend his resources trying to convince....

And that's what he needs to win! Why would he want to spend his resources trying to convince the Sarandon-wing of the party to vote for him. They'd end up not voting or voting for a Stein-like candidate anyway.

President Biden... people need to get used to saying it. President Biden. President Biden!

Vice President Harris. Vice President Warren. (I'm practicing... I know it's going to be one of those.)

[Gothmog]

30. The very liberal segment of the party is smaller than the other segments

Link to tweet

Former vice president Joe Biden is embracing his role as the leading moderate in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary field. He has at times adopted an almost curmudgeonly tone about his opponents’ embrace of more progressive policies, preferring a nostalgia for the way things were back in the good old days of, say, 2015.

It’s an approach that, at first, seems at odds with where the party is going. We’ve noted previously that Democrats are increasingly likely to identify themselves as liberals, a trend that probably helps explain why so many of the 2020 candidates have embraced progressive positions — and why more progressive candidates have entered the race.

Polling, though, suggests that this may not be a foolproof strategy. For one thing, a crowd of more progressive candidates (an admittedly nebulous designation) will compete for the same voters, freeing Biden to vacuum up support from moderates. But polling also shows that Democrats overall aren’t necessarily prioritizing a candidate who espouses progressive policies. The data below are from a recent CNN-SSRS poll: More Democrats think it’s important for a nominee to work with Republicans than to support liberal policies.


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