Joe Biden is the front-runner by every measure -- except big crowds

[brooklynite]

Politico

He’s dominating in the polls, his fundraising is going gangbusters and he’s showing broad support from key political players in the early presidential states.

So where are the big energetic crowds, the lines around the block to get into Joe Biden’s events?

The question is no small matter in a party still recovering from a bitter 2016 defeat — a loss marked by a lack of enthusiasm for an establishment nominee in several critical states.

Attendance at the former vice president’s launch rally paled next to some of his rivals. In his first Iowa visit, he didn’t match the crowds that greeted Elizabeth Warren or even the less well-known Pete Buttigieg in their initial visits. So far, he’s kept his events to smaller venues where there’s little danger of empty seats.

Reminder - the average voter doesn't go to rallies.

[FBaggins]

1. It isn't just smaller events

It's far fewer of them.

He might just be playing it safe while he's sitting on a large lead... but his support could be a mile wide and an inch deep and we wouldn't know it.

[zipplewrath]

2. Almost guarantee that it is

Widespread support is often "shallow" except with narrow slices of supporters. I suspect Bernie may find that much of his former support was rather shallow and based more upon the other options than himself. Conversely though, large crowds aren't necessarily a measure of large support. It can be evidence of deep, but narrow support. Joe's biggest problem is almost assuredly that Iowa is a caucus state which can result in "disappointing" results for front runners, even if they win.

[DownriverDem]

13. His support

is big. We want to beat trump. Folks should think about a VP candidate.

[Butterflylady]

3. Well if big crowds and rallies

Were an indication of a winner, then Bernie would have been the nominee in 2016. He had large crowds wherever he went and look how that turned out. I am so tired of reading articles from those that are trying their hardest to make people believe that they know what they're talking about when obviously they dont know s**t.

[qazplm135]

4. I think the valid suggestion here is

that it is POSSIBLE that right now Biden's support is not deep and strong. He certainly is legitimately in the lead. Why? I suspect it's a combination of a belief that he can win PA (he clearly would) WI and MI (probable but not as certain) plus the Hillary states (electability), and a nostalgia for the Obama Era.

However, could he easily dissolve that support with a strong gaffe or poor debate performances? Absolutely he could. I have no idea if he will or not, but he does not engender the kind of dedicated following that some of the other candidates do. So, he is IMO more susceptible to a crisis/issue derailing him than some of the other candidates.

Now, if he makes it out unscathed, he's pretty much going to be the nominee.
Whether he does or does not (and who emerges to take his place if he does) are IMO going to be the only real, major story(s) of the primary.

[StevieM]

5. I disagree that MI and WI are more difficult to win than PA.

HRC had a wider lead in those places until the Comey intervention turned the race upside down at the end. I reject the claim that the polls were wrong. Actually, the polls changed, and so did the election result.

Michigan is a place where we will do well due to angry union workers who were betrayed by right-to-work laws. I'll admit that it is trickier in Wisconsin where voter suppression techniques have been relentlessly unleashed. That state is ground zero in the assault on democracy.

[qazplm135]

6. I think it remains to be seen

I can buy a guarantee that Joe Biden wins PA. He's from there, they love him. It ain't going to reject him.
That's different from other candidates...all of which COULD win PA, but I wouldn't say are guaranteed to do so.
No one, including Biden, is guaranteed to win MI or WI.

That's the difference here.

[DownriverDem]

14. He's in the lead

and I don't get why folks attack him.

[qazplm135]

19. ummmm

because he's in the lead?

No one is attacking Cory Booker. If Booker were in the lead, he would be attacked.

Same thing with the folks whining because Sanders gets attacked. He's in second. If you are at or near the top, you are going to get attacked. That's how this works. It's politics not tiddlywinks.

[Cha]

7. Well said, Butterflylady!

[JI7]

15. i think it was mostly the same people attending all the Sanders rallies

no matter where he was.

so the crowds actually didn't always reflect the people from all the areas he was in.

[sarabelle]

8. Sometimes the most dedicated voters do not going the "crowd." They don't need an "event"

to hype them. People didn't know Obama, hence he drew big crowds. Most people know Biden.

[EveHammond13]

9. when I see Politico I run screaming in the opposite direction

[brooklynite]

10. ...which says nothing about the merits of the article.

[LanternWaste]

16. And compels one to wonder who in fact, is arguing...

And compels one to wonder who in fact, is arguing the average voter goes to rallies.

[brooklynite]

17. Nobody...

...Politico writes stories about politics. Rallies vs town halls, big dollar fundraisers vs on-line donations...all these are relevant articles about the campaign.

[Indygram]

11. Volunteers do go to rallies and town halls, though

And no one is going to win without strong grassroots.

[beachbum bob]

12. Big crowds,mean little at thus point...

[George II]

18. Many people don't go to rallies because of the logistics of them - have to get there very early....

....for security purposes, they generally start an hour or so late, and if it's someone like an ex-vice president security is tight and sometimes everyone has to stay at the rally until he is safely in his car and on his way. That tends to cut down on the crowds.

Back in 2010 Bill Clinton was in Hartford for a rally for then-candidate Governor Malloy. Everything I described above was the case - a 1-hour rally wound up being a 3-4 hour ordeal.

[susanr516]

20. Perhaps it's due to more familiarity with Biden?

I've listened to several town hall podcasts of several candidates because I really didn't know much about them. Biden doesn't need a lot of rallies to introduce himself to voters. He's already well-known in all states. Smaller crowds may just be an indication that people aren't as inclined to go to the trouble of seeing an event in person if they already have some idea where the candidate stands in relation to their own views. It may have nothing to do with his depth of support.

Of course, I may be totally wrong. I don't know much about candidate rallies. I live in Texas outside of the major metropolitan areas, so even if there was a candidate appearance, I'd be looking at a minimum round trip of over 250 miles to attend.