Second Choices: Bernie or Biden? (Asking for a friend)

[Vidal]

Recently a friend (a huge Bernie Supporter) wrote to me the following:

"When some of these candidates drop out of the race where are their supporters going to turn? All the "non-Biden" candidates are significantly left of center compared to Biden. Why would they abandon this Progressive stance to support him? His policies are diametrically opposed to most of the policies of these other candidates."

His conclusion is that as many candidates drop out, their supporters will flock to Bernie. This means Bernie's true support is much higher than the polls show.

Is this right? Can anyone back that up with data?

Thanks!

[samnsara]

1. this is what happened last election..if i remember correctly..

...we need ..MUST..support whomever is the dem nod..yes even if its bernie...OR biden...

[DownriverDem]

15. Depends

on if folks support true members of the Democratic Party.

[Sherman A1]

2. I will support whom ever is the nominee

Frankly I would support a cardboard box 📦 over the current administration. As to second choices, it’s too early to decide.

[LanternWaste]

3. It's your friend's responsibility to support his own premise with evidence.

Let us know what his finding, and cite the objective sources too, 'k?

Thanks!

[BlueTsunami2018]

4. His policies are not "diametrically opposed" to any of the Democratic candidates.

Your friend is a fool and has no idea what those words mean.

[left-of-center2012]

5. I don't believe the thinking is correct

"All the 'non-Biden' candidates are significantly left of center compared to Biden."

I may be wrong but,
I believe 'Mayor Pete' is pretty close to the center?

[Celerity]

6. here is what The Morning Consult shows

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Second Choices: Where Voters Could Migrate
After voters registered their first choice, they were asked a follow-up about who they would choose as a second option. The results below show where the supporters for a selection of leading candidates could go next.

BIDEN SUPPORTERS
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
29%
Kamala Harris
16%
Elizabeth Warren
11%

SANDERS SUPPORTERS
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
33%
Elizabeth Warren
19%
Kamala Harris
8%


WARREN SUPPORTERS
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
22%
Kamala Harris
21%
Joe Biden
17%


HARRIS SUPPORTERS
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
27%
Elizabeth Warren
18%
Bernie Sanders
12%


BUTTIGIEG SUPPORTERS
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
28%
Kamala Harris
18%
Elizabeth Warren
14%


Who’s Leading Now
The figures are broken out among Democratic primary voters nationwide and in early primary states, which includes just voters who live in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada.

The latest results are based on 16,368 interviews with registered voters, collected from May 20-26 2019.

Democratic Primary Voters




Early Primary State Voters

[Vidal]

9. Awesome

Thank you so much. That is perfect.

[highplainsdem]

7. Considering how Warren's been improving in the polls, it's likely that she, rather than Bernie,

would pick up some of the supporters of any of the less successful progressive candidates that might drop out.

But I wouldn't bet against Biden picking up some of them. I've seen some recent polls with Biiden's poll numbers improving that seemed to indicate his gains were at the expense of a number of other candidates (including Sanders).

If Bernie actually was going to benefit from lesser-known candidates dropping in the polls, which is already happening for most of them, his poll numbers would be going up, not down.

Your Bernie-supporting friend, like many Bernie supporters, is counting on something that's very unlikely to happen.

[Vidal]

11. Agree

I call him the Dreamer

[Skya Rhen]

8. Data from Morning Consult, in early May, shows Joe leading in 2nd choice

Last edited Thu May 30, 2019, 04:22 PM - Edit history (1)

I believe that the most recent poll from Morning Consult shows the same trend...

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2019/5/7/1855934/-Morning-Consult-Biden-in-Commanding-and-Expanding-Lead


Snip...

Like the caption states, you can hover each of the major candidates and see the top 3 second choices. Every major candidate’s second choice is Biden, with the exception of Warren. Warren’s second choice is Sanders. It certainly seems like the race is consolidating around Biden and Sanders.

[George II]

10. Your friend is way too optimistic. With Biden way out in front....

....it's logical that if anyone's candidate drops out many of his/her supporters will flock to Biden.

[Vidal]

12. Biden appears more likely to benefit

the way things look now, there will be a migration toward Biden, and if Warren and Sanders stay in, they will split progressive vote.

[seaglass]

13. It's not true for me. If both Warren and Harris dropped out there would be a long line of

candidates I would support before either Biden or Sanders.

People don't always vote on just policy. Character matters too.

[thesquanderer]

14. Some data on "second choices"

from https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Leading second choice for Warren supporters is Sanders at 22%.
Leading second choice for Harris supporters is Biden at 27%.
Leading second choice for Buttigieg supporters is Biden at 28%.

Most of the others currently poll so low that where their supporters go hardly matters.

But if they HAD to choose to go to Sanders or Biden, to get to your premise, maybe the more left-ish ones go to Sanders, but I think most of the ones that aren't gaining traction are NOT to the left of Biden by much if at all. I do not consider Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, O'Rourke, Delaney, Castro to be left-ish people whose supporters would naturally tend to be more aligned with Sanders than Biden, I tend to give those supporters to Biden if it came down to it. Sanders maybe gets more of Inslee, Booker, Yang...?