Pelosi says Texas is 2020 ground zero,' ---and UT/TT poll confirms that may be true

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Pelosi says Texas is 2020 `ground zero,' and UT/TT poll confirms that may be true

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Pelosi: Texas is ‘ground zero’ in 2020

By Jonathan Tilove


https://www.statesman.com/news/20190305/pelosi-texas-is-ground-zero-in-2020

Posted Mar 5, 2019 at 7:31 AM Updated Mar 5, 2019 at 7:39 PM





U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told the Travis County Democratic Party’s annual dinner Monday night that “Texas is ground zero for us in the next election.” The results of a new University of Texas/Texas Tribune survey released Tuesday suggest she might be right.

“When it turns, and it will soon, it will make all the difference right here in Texas and in the lives of individuals, it will make a difference in the country, and it will make a difference in the world,” Pelosi told the packed crowd of 1,000 people at the Hyatt Regency Austin.

According to the poll, an internet survey of 1,200 registered voters conducted Feb. 15-24, it appears that Texas could be on the line in the 2020 presidential race, with roughly half of respondents saying they would choose a candidate other than President Donald Trump if the election were held now.

Forty-five percent said they would “definitely vote for someone else,” while 39 percent said they would “definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump.” Add in the 10 percent who say they would “probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump,” and the 6 percent who said they would “probably vote for someone else,” and it is a virtual draw.

But Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas, which conducts the poll, cautioned that the numbers do not necessarily foretell that Texas will be a swing state in 2020.

“The state is becoming more competitive, but that competition remains uneven up and down the ballot,” Henson said. “We’re still going to have to wait and see how the races shape up in 2020 before we make any declarations about Texas being something like a toss-up state.”..............................







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[mopinko]

1. i really, really, really want beto to go for cornyn's seat.

if we want to turn texas, having him second on the ballot will be a huge boost.
it's might turn w him on the top of the ballot, but having him there, pounding away every day again, i think it will flip.

[SFnomad]

10. It's been reported by "sources" that Beto won't be running for Senate

and that he will be announcing for President.

[sacto95834]

13. Beto for Senate

Might be better to have Beto in the senate race where he can concentrate on Texas. Naturally, once the Democratic presidential ticket is decided, they would join him in appearances. Might be both of them hammering away will finally turn Texas blue.

I know it's been leaked that Beto won't run for Senate. I think Cornyn's numbers might have scared him. He will definitely be harder to beat than the hated Ted Cruz, but 2nd time might be the charm and looks like TX doesn't like Trump. Plus Beto had national press in his race w/Cruz, so now he is a known factor. Having the mildly hated Trump at the head of the ticket might do it for the Dems this time.

[Gothmog]

18. We have a number of strong persons considering a run against cornyn

In 2014 we had a doctor who was the nominee for the Senate seat because no one wanted to run and he self-funded. In 2012, we had Paul Sadler who is a nice guy but could not afford yard signs. Now we have MJ Hegar, the Castro Brothers and Wendy Davis looking at running. At the state party, there is still some hope that Beto may change his mind.

I like Wendy https://news.yahoo.com/wendy-davis-says-shes-mulling-texas-senate-run-195707115--election.html?fbclid=IwAR3MgH3fk_NiN8RR-H1ltUnxbslh-NUGmQ2dSKG5ZQMIrqXIjYy4BU4wEWM

Wendy Davis of Texas said Tuesday she is considering a U.S. Senate run in 2020 but is waiting to see whether another high-profile Democrat, Rep. Joaquin Castro, goes through with challenging Republican incumbent John Cornyn.

Davis hasn't run for office since badly losing the governor's race in 2014 following her star-making filibuster of an anti-abortion bill in the Texas Capitol, catapulting her into the national spotlight and making her a prominent voice for women's rights.

She told The Associated Press she has urged Castro to run, calling him "uniquely poised" in Texas to give Democrats a chance at winning their first statewide office in 25 years. Castro said last week he was giving "serious" consideration to a Senate campaign but set no timetable for a decision.

Davis said she wants him to decide soon so that someone else — including her — could step up if he sits out. She said she also discussed a Senate run with MJ Hegar, an Air Force veteran who last year lost a close congressional challenge near Austin.

In 2014, Texas voter turnout was hit hard by the GOP voter id/voter suppression law Here is a chart that shows the effect of the Texas voter id law on Democratic turnout

Greg Abbott got more votes in 2014 compared to Rick Perry while Wendy Davis got far fewer votes even though she spent more.

It is nice to see some strong candidates run

[Gothmog]

2. Texas will turn blue

[duforsure]

3. People are running away from trump and the former republican , and now hate group, fascist party now

In large numbers. They know now they've be taken by a con man and a corrupt party. As more gets exposed on them more will be leaving them. I expect many other red states to turn too after a lot more gets exposed on their crimes they've been involved in. It will not ever get better for trump and them as every day they get exposed more.

[jcgoldie]

4. Sounds like a good case for Beto

And I love the way he approaches the wall issue that Trump has made his defining issue.

[honest.abe]

5. I think Harris / Beto could take Texas.

That would be sooooooooo fantastic!

[Amimnoch]

6. Rest assured, this Texan will be fighting like hell on the ground here

for any Democratic Party Candidate on the ballot.

[Gothmog]

15. You have a great deal of company

Texas will turn blue. There are a large number of real democrats working hard to turn Texas blue. The major cities have been blue for a while and now the suburbs are flipping. This makes me smile https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/03/texas-gop-races-2020-1202205

Texas Republicans barely escaped a colossal defeat last year. Now the party is scrambling to avoid a repeat in 2020.

Facing a rapidly changing voter base, anti-Trump fervor and a more motivated Democratic Party, the state GOP is moving earlier than ever to prepare after watching two House members lose in 2018 and another half-dozen win by fewer than 5 points.

The party has set new fundraising goals and placed field staffers in Dallas and Fort Worth nine months earlier than in the last election cycle to facilitate more engagement with voters, with plans to expand the early hiring to other major metro areas to stanch bleeding Republican support in the suburbs.

"We are taking seriously our need to earn every vote in Texas," said James Dickey, chairman of the Texas Republican Party. And donors "are also taking it much more seriously when I tell them how desperately I need them to participate or become a supporter of the party," Dickey added.

The state GOP will be adding organizers in Houston, San Antonio, Dallas and even traditionally Democratic El Paso to its early hires. Those metro areas overlap with the districts of the six House Republicans who won narrowly in 2018: Reps. Michael McCaul, Chip Roy, Pete Olson, Will Hurd, Kenny Marchant, and John Carter.

[Amimnoch]

17. I'm in Lizzie Fletchers district.

One of the greatest evenings in my life was watching that shit Culberson give his concession speech. A wonderful feeling FINALLY having a Representative in congress that represents me!

Major shout out to Beto for this as well. I’m fairly certain that Lizzie couldn’t have pulled it off without his energy driving that election.

[Power 2 the People]

7. They say this crap every year and we lose. As long as it's only 24-7 right wing media there

we have no chance.

[BannonsLiver]

9. That's absolutely correct

We will never have a chance if we throw up our hands and give up. If we quit. You have no chance to win if you don’t play, which is what you’re suggesting.

Fortunately there are plenty who have the will to keep Texas moving in the right direction.

[Gothmog]

16. It is hard work but we are making progress

Link to tweet

[Garrett78]

8. Other states will turn blue before Texas does.

We can force Republicans to spend more resources defending Texas, but we can't rely on Texas turning blue in 2020.

North Carolina, Florida, Arizona and even Georgia are more winnable in 2020.

[Power 2 the People]

12. +1

[Gatoloco]

11. Texas is a pleasant surprise

Polls show the state becoming less red every time.

[Gothmog]

14. Texas is the biggest battleground state:

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

19. national Democrats are contemplating an all-out assault on Republican incumbents in Texas in 2020.

Link to tweet

[Awsi Dooger]

20. Pelosi is a stone moron if she actually believes this

Sorry, the foundational aspect of 44% self-identified conservatives more than overwhelms any Happy Adjuster feel-good anecdotes, or flimsy early polling.

Beto is not being given nearly enough credit for how artificially close he made Texas last cycle. To survive that onslaught and end up with a 52-42 positive approval amidst an electorate with 43% conservatives and 22% conservatives was incredible. However, any analyst or gambler with a fleck of competence understands to throw away the final margin and default to that percentage of conservatives and liberals. That is the truth and the light. That bottom line relationship will absolutely devour any Happy Adjuster prancing stupidity. Texas is a massive favorite to bounce in the other direction in 2020. It won't actually be a bounce as much as restoration of sheer normalcy at this point in time. But the fools who overreact to recent results without the slightest situational awareness will somehow view it as a surprise. That's why I always wish that type made the betting line on everything.

Democrats are lousy handicappers. It has been true since I started following this, and no doubt long before. We have awful slogans. We miss the big picture time and again. I love Hillary but she absolutely campaigned in the wrong states in 2016. That shouldn't be possible but from Pelosi's perspective it looks like we are determined to do it again.

Only if Beto is the nominee should we put any emphasis or dollars into Texas.

[Gothmog]

21. We couldn't have put it better ourselves, @TeamPelosi.

Link to tweet