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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Wed Mar 6, 2019, 03:04 PM

 

The 2020 Election Will Be Decided By The Independent Voters

The polling numbers on Trump have been thoroughly consistent: The Republicans have been 90% behind him and the Democrats are more than 90% against him. Those numbers are not going to change.

The fluctuation is always in the middle. The self-described Independents. This group of voters went heavily for Trump in 2016 and swung back dramatically to the Democrats in 2018.

That's why I'm for a Biden-Harris ticket. These Independent voters will not swing wildly in either ideological direction. They want comfort. As the waning election days of 2016 approached, the New York Times proclaimed that the FBI found nothing to pin on Trump in regards to the Russian investigation and then Comey dropped that fucking letter appearing to reopen the Hillary investigation and linking the whole thing to that creep, Anthony Wiener. Hillary still carried the popular vote by 2 points, but the damage was done.

That's why I'm with Biden. I want a Biden-Harris ticket, not based on philosophy, but based on math. This formidable, squishy middle of the American voter needs to feel comfortable. Joe Biden brings back the nostalgia of the Obama-Biden years. Only fear, real or imagined, can make this election a horse race. I get the Progressive agenda, but this is not the time to take any chances. I'm sorry, but the Biden-Harris ticket is as close as we can come to the comfort zone which is sought by the very bland Independent voters, while still energizing our base and looking to the future with Harris as VP.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Arrow 30 replies Author Time Post
Reply The 2020 Election Will Be Decided By The Independent Voters (Original post)
louis c Mar 2019 OP
bearsfootball516 Mar 2019 #1
CrossingTheRubicon Mar 2019 #2
brush Mar 2019 #3
brooklynite Mar 2019 #4
CrossingTheRubicon Mar 2019 #5
IronLionZion Mar 2019 #17
Fiendish Thingy Mar 2019 #6
louis c Mar 2019 #7
Fiendish Thingy Mar 2019 #9
louis c Mar 2019 #13
Fiendish Thingy Mar 2019 #15
louis c Mar 2019 #18
JudyM Mar 2019 #27
louis c Mar 2019 #28
Trumpocalypse Mar 2019 #10
brush Mar 2019 #29
Fiendish Thingy Mar 2019 #30
bigtree Mar 2019 #8
Trumpocalypse Mar 2019 #11
Garrett78 Mar 2019 #12
louis c Mar 2019 #14
IronLionZion Mar 2019 #16
Amimnoch Mar 2019 #19
The Mouth Mar 2019 #25
flamingdem Mar 2019 #20
Hortensis Mar 2019 #21
Lucid Dreamer Mar 2019 #22
louis c Mar 2019 #23
Lucid Dreamer Mar 2019 #24
The Mouth Mar 2019 #26

Response to louis c (Original post)

Wed Mar 6, 2019, 03:06 PM

1. I love Kamala, but I have no qualms about the strength Joe could bring leading the ticket.

 

Independents love Biden and he's the only candidate that absolutely destroys Trump in every midwestern swing state in polls we've seen. To win the election, all Democrats have to do is win everything they did in 2016 (not hard) and pick up Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which Joe would very likely do considering his popularity there.

I'd be very very happy with a Biden/Harris ticket. He'd get the blue-collar independent Obama 08-12/Trump 16 voters and Harris would help bringing out women and minorities.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Wed Mar 6, 2019, 03:07 PM

2. I agree with the basic premise, but think Biden/Booker is an even stronger ticket for the win.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Wed Mar 6, 2019, 03:19 PM

3. Meh...also by Democratic and repug votes. We just have to keep...

 

doing what we did to get the blue wave out in Nov.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brush (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 6, 2019, 03:26 PM

4. ...which primarily involved winning with moderate candidates in swing districts.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #4)

Wed Mar 6, 2019, 03:31 PM

5. Like here in CA where 5 great liberal newcomers swept the GOP out of the House in Orange County.

 

Orange "freeking" County.

Once one of the most solidly rightwing places in America has gone 100% Blue in the House.

A breathtaking development for anyone who grew up in the Golden State.

Go Team Blue!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brush (Reply #3)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 11:46 AM

17. and whichever side is more energized to have higher turnout

 

it was a bold move for many to elect Obama in 2008, and even Bill Clinton in 1992. And we had a nice blue wave in 2006 and 2008 and even 2018 largely due to turnout.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Wed Mar 6, 2019, 04:09 PM

6. Faulty premise- not all independents are "swing voters" or moderates

 

In fact many independents are to the left of the Democratic Party platform.

Democrats will nominate a bland centrist at their own peril. Firing up the progressive base is more important than appealing to poorly defined unicorn centrist voters.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #6)

Wed Mar 6, 2019, 04:11 PM

7. I never said "all". But a vast majority are, otherwise...

 

...how could self-described Independents vote by plus 6 points for Trump in 2016 and then plus 12 points for the Dems in 2018.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to louis c (Reply #7)

Wed Mar 6, 2019, 05:30 PM

9. That's only a swing of 18 points

 

Hardly a majority...
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #9)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 09:32 AM

13. That 18 points is life or death in politics. And those are the voters that decide elections...

 

...which makes my point of the OP.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to louis c (Reply #13)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 11:31 AM

15. And if you focus on appealing, or at least not offending/alarming the 18% swing voters

 

While taking the progressive base for granted ("who else are they going to vote for?" ) you still lose.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #15)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 11:49 AM

18. Oh, I agree. If the people who don't get everything they want stay home, like they did in 2016...

 

...or vote for Jill Stein or some other Russian asset, we will lose. See, those folks can't be taken for granted. However, traditional Democrats, like me, on the other hand, can be taken for granted.

I'm 66 yeas old and have been through the political wars going back to Nixon. If 4 additional years of Trump is OK with the "progressive base", which is generally much younger than I am, then it's OK with me. You see, if that part of our base still doesn't get what a "binary choice" is, they will have to live with the consequences a lot longer than I will.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to louis c (Reply #7)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 03:47 PM

27. Perhaps because they preferred the populist aspect of his message to the more incremental pitch

 

we offered in the GE. Perhaps they would’ve preferred a progressive, and then voted for progressives in 2018, consistent with that same feeling.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to JudyM (Reply #27)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 04:10 PM

28. These middle of the road Independents are closer to status quo voters...

 

Last edited Fri Mar 8, 2019, 02:12 PM - Edit history (1)

...the last two weeks of the election made Hillary look like a riskier pick than Trump. I know that it's hard to believe in hindsight, but that Comey letter was devastating. A lot of committed Sanders voters felt like they got cheated in the primaries and the Russians and Cambridge Analytica weren't going to let them forget it. Stein was waiting to help Putin and create that alternative.

Right now, Trump is ripe to be beat. All we need is a candidate that makes that 15% to 20% of Independents (3% to 4% of the total GE voters) feel comfortable and Trump is out. All I want is to defeat Trump in 2020.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #6)

Wed Mar 6, 2019, 09:16 PM

10. The progressive base needs to do what is right

 

to stop Trump or they will lose all credibility.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #6)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 08:02 PM

29. So are you saying leftist indies will either vote 3rd party...

 

for trump or stay home if Dems don't nominatem a candidate left enough for them—sortta like in 2016?

That really worked out well.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brush (Reply #29)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 08:13 PM

30. High voter turnout means Dem victories

 

We don’t need anything, including a bland status quo candidate, diminishing voters’ enthusiasm.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Wed Mar 6, 2019, 04:35 PM

8. or by an influx of new, younger, more progressive voters

 

...or by an energized and motivated black community of voters.

No reason to think Kamala Harris can't top the ticket and best a two-time Dem primary dropout.

Maybe Biden will make the short list for her VP.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Wed Mar 6, 2019, 09:17 PM

11. Actually all elections

 

are decided by independent voters.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 01:33 AM

12. "Independent" is hardly synonymous with "middle."

 

Last edited Thu Mar 7, 2019, 09:40 AM - Edit history (1)

Studies show that the vast majority of so-called independents are highly partisan but simply like calling themselves "independent." Today's "independents" are, on average, more in favor of one party over the other than were strong partisans in the 1970s. And an "independent" who leans Democratic is more likely to vote Democratic than a weak Democrat. Independents are, however, slightly less reliable voters (i.e., they don't turn out as faithfully as party-affiliated voters, which would help explain why you see swings in terms of "independent" support from one election to the next). Numerous articles can be found online regarding the myth of the "independent" voter. I've read several and the points I just made comprise a summary of those articles.

Also a myth, of course, is the notion that white economic anxiety (I guess POC don't experience economic anxiety) is what drove support for Trump.

The idea that we must nominate a moderate or centrist or white male or someone who bashes identity politics is deeply flawed. We need to focus on turning out our base. There will inevitably be those who voted for Trump or didn't vote at all in 2016 who will vote Dem in 2020 (they've become disenchanted or were blinded by hatred for Clinton or didn't think they needed to bother voting or they voted 3rd party or whatever). Simply nominating someone who contrasts sharply with Trump and doesn't carry a lot of baggage will get those folks to vote for our nominee. It would be foolish to run a campaign or choose a nominee centered around flipping Trump voters. Again, turning out the base is key. Increasing POC and youth turnout (as compared to 2016) is what will rule the day. Personally, I think a Harris-O'Rourke ticket is our best bet.

Charisma and youthfulness are much more important than we'd like to think. Our last 5 Democratic presidents averaged 48 years of age upon taking office.

Regarding the much talked about trio of states (PA, MI and WI), let's understand that many factors were at play in 2016 that simply won't be at play in 2020 (not the least of which is the fact that both candidates were historically unpopular with net approval ratings well below zero). We dominated those 3 states from 1992 through 2012, and made gains in those states in 2018. I'm fairly confident we'll win all 3 in 2020...and force Republicans to spend a lot of resources on defending NC, FL, AZ and GA.

There are numerous party insiders who disagree with what many around here take to be conventional wisdom. Read this: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/campaigns/article226007090.html
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #12)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 10:33 AM

14. I agree that 80% of Independents are really committed to one side or the other...

 

...that leaves the 20% who decide elections.

That's the target audience. I don't like it. It's like picking a jury on a highly publicized case who have no opinion because they don't pay attention. That's the fraction of about 5% of the electorate that become the deciding. Winning elections is figuring how to win those votes without having any part of your base stay home.

That's why, from a pragmatic point of view, I'm for a Biden-Harris ticket. Biden wins us that 5% of swing voters, while Harris gives a good reason for our base to come out.

I firmly believe winning this election saves the Republic, and losing, well, does the opposite. I am open minded and if anyone can prove to me that an alternative works better at winning, I'm all ears. But, as of now, I think my ticket does the trick.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 11:40 AM

16. Anyone who voted Trump, has swung wildly in an ideological direction

 

and we were told repeatedly that voters are bored with comfort and wanted to "shake things up". Comfort would be Never Trump.

Sure, Biden should be able to kick Trump's ass easily but I'd still like to see a competitive primary with some bold leftist ideas gaining traction and included in the eventual nominee's platform. For all we know, Trump and Pence may be removed from office before the election.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 12:06 PM

19. Texas is key imo.

 

Take the 2016 election.
A few of the major factors in Texas:

As much as I love, and fought for Hillary here, she is a pretty unpopular and very polarizing candidate for the right= energized opposition voter base.

Even though Texas did go to 45 in 2016, Texas is NOT tRump country. There are a lot of conservatives here that hate him.. still a population that does adore him, but a lot that despise him as well.

Take for example the 2016 Primary. Cruz is not a highly loved figure, but even he beat out Trump in the primary 43.8% to 26.7% in their primary.

A couple of critical and LOOOOOoonnng time held Republican seats just flipped in Texas this last election (shoutout at LOVING having Lizzie Pannell Fletcher as my Representative! burn in hell Culberson!)

Consider for a second this fact:
If Hillary had won Texas in 2016, even with all those mid-west marginal losses+Ohio+Florida.. She'd be president right now!!!

She lost the electoral college 306 to 232 in 45's favor. You flip Texas' 38 electoral votes and those totals change 270 to 268 Hillary's favor.

We turn Texas blue, and it's all but over for the R's when it comes to the Presidency.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Amimnoch (Reply #19)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 03:39 PM

25. Beto as VP would be a winner

 

just a thought. Win Texas and give him some good presidential experience.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 12:57 PM

20. Biden/Harris for the win

 

Or some other combination that can gather the sane into one huuuge tent, including repentant Trumpers.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 02:20 PM

21. UNLESS they're counted first. Then it'll be "decided by"

 

those who vote later. Or not.

What they really mean is they can't count wobblies as reliably as those registered to a party, though most do reliably vote their "lean" anyway.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 02:33 PM

22. For a candidate, we need the one that scares the fewest people.

 

By that I mean that changing the colors on the map is the most important.
If our candidate has got the greatest beloved message for all of us, that message may not work for the swingers.

Remember. If Hillary had 30 million more votes in CA and NY it still would not have changed the EC numbers.
Those swing votes have to come from the right places.

[See the great note [19. Amimnoch] on TX above.]
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Lucid Dreamer (Reply #22)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 02:34 PM

23. It seems as though you understand my point

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to louis c (Reply #23)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 02:39 PM

24. Yes. And we need to keep hammering it.

 

I was writing an essay along these lines for General Discussion w/ more nerd details.
But you are right on with this thread. Thanx. You probably saved me some time.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Lucid Dreamer (Reply #24)

Thu Mar 7, 2019, 03:42 PM

26. exactly

 

The people who don't understand how the Electoral College works, and that it will be a fact of life for as long as any of us alive, do more harm than good. They are like the person wondering why I have lost a chess game to you when I have more pieces on the board, and then getting whiny and indignant when you explain 'checkmate' to them and that the rules and criteria for victory have been known to everyone for centuries.

Thank you for saying it so well, and please let me know when your essay is online.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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