Democratic Primaries

shraby

(21,946 posts) Mon Jul 1, 2019, 04:17 PM Jul 2019

How can these both be true?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287184106

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287184094

Two CNN polls with different figures.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

8 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

How can these both be true? (Original Post) shraby Jul 2019 OP

The one with the source link would be the accurate one. DISREGARD DATA W/O LINKS TO THE SOURCE. Honeycombe8 Jul 2019 #1

One has a link. The other doesn't. Go from there. berni_mccoy Jul 2019 #2

I didn't notice that. shraby Jul 2019 #5

One has a link to an article with a specific date (today) customerserviceguy Jul 2019 #3

One poll shows the knee-jerk reaction bump from the debate and the other shows who the majority Skya Rhen Jul 2019 #4

Two different metrics sweetloukillbot Jul 2019 #6

Bingo. Answers to different questions. thesquanderer Jul 2019 #7

Links to 538 Nate Silver poll and CNN report delisen Jul 2019 #8

Honeycombe8

(37,648 posts)

1. The one with the source link would be the accurate one. DISREGARD DATA W/O LINKS TO THE SOURCE.

Reply to shraby (Original post)

Mon Jul 1, 2019, 04:18 PM

Jul 2019

If you notice, the first post is just a post. It is NOT a CNN poll. It doesn't even link to a source for the information. I'm seeing more and more of these lately. I disregard those.

The second one links to a real CNN poll. The poll @ CNN says:

The poll, conducted after the two-night debate, finds 22% of registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents backing Biden for the party's presidential nomination, 17% Harris, 15% Warren and 14% Sen. Bernie Sanders. No one else in the 23-person field tested hits 5%.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

berni_mccoy

(23,018 posts)

2. One has a link. The other doesn't. Go from there.

Reply to shraby (Original post)

Mon Jul 1, 2019, 04:19 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

shraby

(21,946 posts)

5. I didn't notice that.

Reply to berni_mccoy (Reply #2)

Mon Jul 1, 2019, 04:22 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

customerserviceguy

(25,183 posts)

3. One has a link to an article with a specific date (today)

Reply to shraby (Original post)

Mon Jul 1, 2019, 04:20 PM

Jul 2019

and the other does not. Perhaps it refers to a different day's CNN poll.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Skya Rhen

(2,701 posts)

4. One poll shows the knee-jerk reaction bump from the debate and the other shows who the majority

Reply to shraby (Original post)

Mon Jul 1, 2019, 04:20 PM

Jul 2019

of Americans believe is most electable. IMO, the electability poll is more predictive...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

sweetloukillbot

(11,008 posts)

6. Two different metrics

Reply to shraby (Original post)

Mon Jul 1, 2019, 04:22 PM

Jul 2019

One is "who would you vote for?"
The other is "who do you think can beat Trump?"

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

thesquanderer

(11,986 posts)

7. Bingo. Answers to different questions.

Reply to sweetloukillbot (Reply #6)

Mon Jul 1, 2019, 04:32 PM

Jul 2019

43% think Biden has the best chance of beating Trump.
Only 22% of them at this point actually intend to vote for Biden in the primary.
Presumably, they think that their candidate of choice can also beat Trump.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

delisen

(6,042 posts)

8. Links to 538 Nate Silver poll and CNN report

Reply to shraby (Original post)

Mon Jul 1, 2019, 04:36 PM

Jul 2019

CNN national poll June 28-July1 2019 A-rating has Biden at 22. I could not find a link for the other posted.

538 reports:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

CNN reports drop for Biden
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/democratic-primary-poll-july-2019/index.html

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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