Some bad -- and some even worse -- poll news for Bernie Sanders

[DonViejo]

By Aaron Blake
July 2 at 1:30 PM

After CNN on Monday released the first poll since last week’s Democratic debate, all the focus was on Joe Biden dropping and Kamala D. Harris and Elizabeth Warren rising. But what about Bernie Sanders? Another new poll Tuesday — this time in Iowa — seems to fill out the picture of a 2016 runner-up who didn’t impress last week and is losing ground.

The CNN poll had Sanders dropping, albeit less than Biden did. While Sanders had 18 percent support in late May, the latest national poll put him at 14 percent. He dropped to fourth place but was still in a statistical tie with Harris (17 percent) and Warren (15 percent).

Tuesday’s Iowa poll, though, is worse. Sanders is again in fourth place, but this time he’s not so close. And that might not even be the worst part.

Here are the top-line numbers from the Suffolk University/USA Today poll in Iowa:

Biden: 24 percent
Harris: 16
Warren: 13
Sanders: 9
Pete Buttigieg: 6

This is Suffolk’s first Iowa poll, but Sanders is well below his 16 percent showing in an early June Des Moines Register-CNN poll and his 22 percent in a CBS News-YouGov poll last month. It’s also just the second time he’s been in the single digits in a poll either nationally or in the early states. A Post and Courier poll of the South Carolina primary recently also put him at 9 percent.

more
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/07/02/some-bad-some-even-worse-poll-news-bernie-sanders/

[George II]

1. Don't forget that 15% rule!

[CentralMass]

2. Well RealClearPolitics average has him sitting back about 13 points from Biden in second place..

Bidens lead has slipped a bit. So while I would say it isn't great news i think it is not a bad place to be 7 or 8 month away from the primary. Staying in the #1 spot is not and easy task. He also took in 18 mliion this quarter from his loyal base of small contributors.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[Vegas Roller]

19. He is going to continue to drop

He has nothing to offer the voters except anger and railing against windmills with slogans.

[Progressive2020]

3. Bernie

I think part of Sander's decline is that he is no longer a new thing in national presidential politics. Also, he has more baggage this time around then when he first ran on 2016. Finally, I think that some Progressives may have migrated over to Elizabeth Warren. Sanders did not really stand out too much in the debates. We have seen and heard him before. He is not new.

[Cosmocat]

5. I have felt for a while now he missed his window

Last go round it was pretty much him and Hillary, he had the strong progressive niche, and got a pass for the most part with the republicans and media tearing Hillary apart.

His campaign tends to be more murky than dems like, and people didn't notice with all the heat on Hillary, or let it go.

Finally, his going in and out of the party has worn a lot of people thin.

[Vegas Roller]

20. Murky is the mildest way to put it nt

[Still In Wisconsin]

4. CRASH AND BERN!

I voted for him in the 2016 primary but damned if I'm getting fooled by the same schtick twice.

[we can do it]

9. Same here.

Fooled me once.

[lunamagica]

6. He needs to withraw and endorse and campaign for Elizabeth Warren

And I mean really campaign, not that lukewarm "campaigning" he did for Hillary

[JI7]

7. i seriously think he would prefer Biden get the nomination over her

[lunamagica]

8. Oh, yes, I completely agree with you.

[yardwork]

14. Oh definitely, so he can keep complaining about the Democrats.

It will be harder to do that if Warren is the nominee.

[BlueWI]

10. Sanders still speaks with a lot of clarity on the issues

but there are multiple strong liberal wing candidates.

I still appreciate his influential efforts to finance a campaign through small donors and strengthen public support for liberal policy solutions, because he openly advocates for them.

I don't think he'll win, which is true of every candidate except one. I do appreciate his message.

[Archdruid Grulog]

11. There is an argument that Sanders Voters are not particularly fond of CNN

Although their coverage of Sanders has improved, CNN was as complacent as MSNBC and other mainstream outlets in a slanted coverage campaign against Sanders over the last few months. Namely, there was a pronounced positivity blackout - only neutral or negative articles were run (in contrast with other candidates, who had a proper spectrum of coverage).

I would argue if Warren, Biden, Harris, or Buttigig had a campaign of over 1 million volunteers on the ground (with record breaking numbers of small individual donations) - and instead of selling their donor lists they used them to mobilize and alert cities when ICE raids were about to take place - we'd never hear the end of it.

[Gothmog]

12. Under the 15% rule, it is very possible that sanders will not get any delegates

[yardwork]

15. Lots of opportunities to complain about how he's been oppressed.

[Cha]

13. Kick.

[Renew Deal]

16. The goal is for Bernie to get 0 delegates

It will make for a more unified convention.

[Gothmog]

17. Actually all we have to do is keep sanders from getting 300 delegates

Under DNC rules, one needs 300 delegates to place one's name up. I was a delegate to the Philadelphia convention and saw how the process works. One key item is that under the rules, a candidate cannot be put into nomination without 300 delegates. https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2020-Call-for-Convention-WITH-Attachments-2.26.19.pdf

Nomination of the Democratic Candidate for President: The Permanent Chair shall receive nominations from the floor for the Democratic candidate for the Office of President of the United
States in the following manner:

a. Requests to nominate a presidential candidate shall be in writing and shall have affixed thereto the written approval of the proposed nominee and the name of the individuals who shall be recognized to make the nominating and seconding speeches on behalf of a presidential candidate and shall be delivered to the Convention Secretary at a location as specified by the Secretary no later than 6:00 p.m. of the day preceding the day designated for the commencement of presidential nominations.

b. Each such request must be accompanied by a petition indicating support for the proposed nominee signed by delegates representing not less than 300 or more than 600 delegate votes, not more than 50 of which may come from one (1) delegation. A delegate may not sign more than one (1) nominating petition for president and for vice president. Pledged and automatic delegates may sign the petition.

I signed the petition for Clinton in 2016 to put her into nomination. If sanders is frozen out of enough states due to the 15% rule and remaining non-Biden delegates are split among several candidates, there is a chance that sanders may not reach 300 threshold

[NastyRiffraff]

18. Thanks for the very clear explanation

DNC rules can be murky sometimes. I would be happy if Bernie is legally frozen out. Of course, he and his supporters will bellow "RIGGED!!" but who cares?

[Gothmog]

22. Prior to convention the Clinton campaign was planning on three or four floor fights

The Clinton campaign had a wonderful "whipping infrastructure" in place. Being a lawyer, I read all of the rules and so knew where to look to find the current rules

[comradebillyboy]

21. Some say the bloom is off the rose.

I could say more but I'd just get in trouble.