Biden, Harris in virtual tie after dramatic shift in black support, poll shows

[Kind of Blue]

Haven't finished reading because of her last jump and thought was a given but...

Sen. Kamala Harris of California has catapulted into a virtual tie with former Vice President Joe Biden in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination — and she'smade significant inroads with black voters — following her widely praised debate performance last week, a new national poll released Tuesday showed.

The latest Quinnipiac University poll of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters showed Biden with 22 percent support and Harris with 20 percent — a double-digit jump for her since the university's previous poll last month.

Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont were in third and fourth place in the poll, with 14 percent and 13 percent, respectively. Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, was in fifth, with 4 percent support.

No other candidate got more than 3 percent in the poll.

Biden's 2 percentage point lead over Harris was within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

"Round 1 of the Democratic debates puts Senator Kamala Harris and former Vice President Joe Biden on two different trajectories, as support for Harris surges but continues to slip for Biden," Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow said in a statement. "Biden's once-commanding lead has evaporated," she added.

The poll, conducted June 28 to July 1, also showed that Harris had caught up with Biden in receiving support from black Democratic voters — a bloc with which Biden has done well.

In the latest poll, Biden's support among black Democratic voters shrunk to 31 percent from 48 percent in the June poll. Harris, on the other hand, saw her support among black Democratic voters grow to 27 percent, from 11 percent in the June poll. The June poll numbers on African American voters were provided to NBC by Quinnipiac.

The poll suggests a substantial upswing for Harris and a notable decline for the former vice president. In the Quinnipiac's poll of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters last month, Biden received the support of 30 percent of the respondents, while Sanders had 19 percent, Warren had 15 percent and Buttigieg had 8 percent.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/joe-biden-kamala-harris-virtual-tie-democratic-nomination-new-poll-n1025656

[rusty quoin]

1. It's so early.

[Kind of Blue]

2. Sure is.

[honest.abe]

3. A few days ago I was thinking Biden would coast to the nomination.

Not anymore.

[gldstwmn]

4. Here's the thing. Biden is a good guy.

He really is. But the problem is HE thinks he's going to coast to the nomination. Hence every single problem his campaign is facing right now. That and they can't make him stop talking.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

26. There's no coasting in this primary.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Kind of Blue]

6. Early this year I was hoping we'd hear from more progressive

candidates. It's a relief to me that so many fit the bill and at least 2 are contenders for Biden's coronated spot. This is the most captivating, let alone exciting, race to me since Obama, Clinton and Edwards.

[shanny]

8. hmm.

I never thought he would. He's a bad campaigner: in his first two tries, he withdrew long before the first primary in one and then right after Iowa in the second (got 1% iirc). Plus Senators running for office do not often succeed because they have a voting record that can be picked apart. Joe's is very long and contains some whopping mistakes (I do confess that I didn't foresee any hooha about busing bubbling to the surface but it is a case in point*). And finally, I see the energy and the power in the party today in women, minorities and younger voters--and Joe is behind the curve with them all. You can only go so far with nostalgia for Obama...especially when you are saying you can work with Republicans (where was he for eight years?) and telling rich people "nothing will fundamentally change".

I think support for Biden is broad but not deep and he chips away at it almost every time he opens his mouth. But what do I know? I need lessons in how these things work.


*and I think the real weakness was his insistence on not involving the federal govt. when state/local govts. were not stepping up. You can dislike busing without taking the fed govt. out of the equation altogether.

[BlueWI]

9. Well said.

The primary support is split between four double digits candidates right now, and if Buttigieg strengthens it will be at the further expense of Biden and Sanders.

[Demit]

31. The sad irony about the busing issue is that he drew attention to it himself.

Harris, with the quick legal mind that we've seen in Senate hearings, saw the opening and homed in on it. That's the kind of brain I want a president to have. Biden was advised against invoking the memories of white supremacists with whom he found common cause, but he went ahead anyway, convinced of his own righteousness. That's the Joe Biden people are seeing more of as the campaign goes on. Less of Obama's VP and more of who he is when he has to stand alone as himself.

[shanny]

46. +1

There is a reason his campaign has limited/is limiting his appearances.

[UniteFightBack]

10. I don't know how you could think that when that didn't even happen in 2016. nt

[Still In Wisconsin]

27. Actually I think Biden is toast.

I don't know who the nominee will be but Biden managed to have a debate performance SO very bad that it probably disqualifies him from any future place of prominence in the Democratic Party. It would be a big mistake to even let him speak at the convention.

[marylandblue]

33. He will speak at the convention no matter what.

It would an insult not to include him, and even if he loses, a good chunk of voters will still like him.

[Demsrule86]

77. I think he will win as he is the best candidate to take the states we need...

[shanny]

5. TBH a margin of error of +/-5 is ginormous.

[Kind of Blue]

7. Well, you could take it with a grain of salt. I like following trends

especially today's pollings that's not off from this one, and blow-by-blow descriptions.

[UniteFightBack]

11. Even Booker got a bounce from this hacksaw racial attack against Biden. nt

[Kind of Blue]

14. The OP is not about Booker but good for him.

[Celerity]

74. 'hacksaw racial attack against Biden'

[Voltaire2]

12. Biden's insistence on bragging about 'getting along' with vile racist shitheads

was a massive WTF.

The cluelessness abounds.

[Kind of Blue]

23. Yeah, what gets me is exactly that. Instead of offering fresh ideas as a young

senator he offered continued segregation. I just don't think he's that bright.

[Demsrule86]

32. And running on a failed 21st century sort of thing like busing is madness.

But posts like this show how little some understand the Senate...who got to do what was controlled by mostly dixiecrats in those years...they control the Senate...and young Senators had to work with them.

[marylandblue]

37. Nobody is running on busing, it's a non-issue now.

It was just a hammer to hit Biden with, next time it will be sometjing else.

[Demsrule86]

40. She said she believes busing should be reinstated after the debate.

"But when Harris was asked by a reporter on Sunday if she supported the return of busing to desegregate schools, she said she did. "We need to put every effort, including busing, into play to desegregate the schools," she said, adding that busing was "one small piece of the very big piece."

The right is having a field day with this.

https://www.salon.com/2019/07/01/kamala-harris-is-right-about-busing-it-worked-and-should-be-used-to-end-segregation-today/

[Kind of Blue]

49. Well, Harris is right. And if they're having a field day then more info will reveal that

“Busing as a political term … was a failure, because the narrative that came out of it from the media and politicians was almost only negative,” said Matt Delmont, a Dartmouth historian who wrote a book titled “Why Busing Failed.” “It only emphasized the inconvenience to white families and white students.”

A political failure does not necessarily mean an educational failure, though, as Delmont and others have pointed out. Indeed, research has consistently shown that integrated schools offered, and still offer, tangible benefits to students of color.

Since public schools in many places today remain intensely segregated by race and socioeconomic status, this issue is not just a historical one.

“School integration didn’t fail,” Berkeley economist Rucker Johnson, who has conducted some of the most far-reaching research on school integration, recently argued. “The only failure is that we stopped pursuing it and allowed the reign of segregation to return.”

The effects were quite large: going to integrated schools for an additional five years caused high school graduation rates to jump by nearly 15 percentage points and reduced the likelihood of living in poverty by 11 percentage points.

In a follow-up analysis, Johnson found that these benefits extended to the next generation. The children of those who attended integrated schools had higher test scores and were more likely to attend college, too.

Johnson’s work is consistent with other research. Another national paper found that school desegregation efforts in the ‘70s reduced the dropout rate among black students, though the effect was smaller than Johnson’s estimate. A study focusing on Louisiana between 1965 and 1970 found that integration dramatically boosted black students’ chances of graduating high school.

Why did school integration make such a difference? Johnson and others show that black students ended up attending much better resourced schools with smaller class sizes.

https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/us/2019/07/01/busing-for-school-integration-succeed-work-research/

https://www.salon.com/2019/07/01/kamala-harris-is-right-about-busing-it-worked-and-should-be-used-to-end-segregation-today/

[emulatorloo]

51. Senator Harris says she supports bringing back busing.

[marylandblue]

52. I know that. But is she now going to go around the country saying she will do forced busing?

Are people really so concerned about it that they are going to ask her about all the time? Does anybody actually believe she is even going to do it?

Her worst detractors are saying this was just a transparent calculated ploy to take down Biden. If she is that cold and calculating, do you think she didn't plan for the aftermath?

[emulatorloo]

53. I don't know what her actual strategy will be. I wish she would focus on her strengths

accomplishments, and how qualified she is to be President. She is on my shortlist

[Voltaire2]

41. what is biden's plan to desegregate our schools?

[Demsrule86]

42. There is no plan because it is a bad idea to run on...a better plan is what is Biden's idea

to promote racial equality? Why run on a 20th century idea in the 21st century.

[Voltaire2]

56. So we just give up on desegregation?

[Demsrule86]

59. We gave up on it 40 or 50 years ago...what we can and should go for is equality.

[Voltaire2]

73. Late 70's.

Indeed we did.

[Demsrule86]

76. It didn't work. Carter was in office then...we were about to be treated to two terms of Reagan and

one of Bush I...12 years before we took the presidency back...and Clinton only won both times becuause of third party spoilers...didn't have a majority. And when I look at the eletoral college map...we could end up in a similar situation.

[Kind of Blue]

50. If he had a plan it was overwhelmed by "his vigorous

opposition to court-ordered desegregation in the 1970s that has also sparked fresh debate about whether those efforts were successful."
https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/us/2019/07/01/busing-for-school-integration-succeed-work-research/

He was much too busy siding with conservatives such as Sen. Jesse Helms (N.C.), who welcomed Biden “to the ranks of the enlightened,” on busing and instead...

By 1975, Biden was boasting that he had “made it—if not respectable—I’ve made it reasonable for longstanding liberals to begin to raise the questions I’ve been the first to raise in the liberal community” regarding busing. He predicted that liberal holdouts would “see the light and switch sides on busing too.”

And not really pushing any other plan desegregating schools.

[emulatorloo]

55. It is odd to me that some are trying to protect Trump's very real racism on Biden

Biden has a solid record on Civil Rights, Trump has a record of racial discrimination, and has promoted White Supremacists and Neo-Nazis.

A couple other examples, these from the right wing but I’ve seen then repeated here:

Trump has said on tape he gropes women and “grabs them by the pussy”

So right wing puts out a meme that “Biden is a Pervert” and “Biden is a Pedophile”

In 2016 I saw on DU folks promoting right-wing memes in order to destroy primary candidates they didn’t like. Vile untrue character assasinations.

I think we shouldn’t do that this year. It isn’t worth it to project Trump’s flaws on any of our good candidates just to ‘score points’ or ‘destroy Candidate X in order to boost Candidate Y”

Best to stick to policy, and leave the character attacks to the right wing

JMHO, your mileage may vary.

[Kind of Blue]

58. That's obviously your function to protect 45 by trying to shut down

necessary debates vetting the strongest candidate.

If it makes you feel any better, still early in the season, Sen. Harris has explaining she'll have to address as well as Warren, Buttiege, Castro, O'Rourke and the rest.

[emulatorloo]

64. Scorched-earth dishonest character assasination is not "vetting"

And I sure you know the difference between policy debates and dishonest personal attacks.

Such as when you claimed that my “function (is) to protect 45.” Very cute!

You should list all my posts supporting Trump. Good luck finding them.



Oh by the way I’ll push back on all dishonest personal character attacks on everyone of our Democratic candidates.


—

That being said you do have great taste in music though so

[Kind of Blue]

66. Yup. We call as we see it, don't we? Unfortunately for you nothing is stopping that.

Oh, how I love music! One thing we all have in common besides politics, of course

[emulatorloo]

68. I'm not going to tear down our Dem nominees in 2020. It may not matter but it's what I

I want to do. Compare Policy differences, records yes, because that’s how we figure it out. I have a pretty long shortlist

Thanks for the clip, I love it! i’m constantly either singing or listening to music.

Here’s one of my favorite songs about music:

[Kind of Blue]

71. It's good to agree to disagree on policy differences.

Thank you for the clip! Very nice. Hey, maybe we'll start a trend of opposing sides ending up trading music

Okay, I can't help myself but I got to post one of my favorite Beach Boys. Because God Only Knows, but I can imagine, where we'd be without the Democratic Party

[emulatorloo]

78. Beautiful performances! Thanks!

Happy 4th and have a great weekend

[Kind of Blue]

79. "Out beyond ideas of wrongdoing and rightdoing, there is a field. I'll meet you there," Rumi

Nice to have had that moment in the here and now.

Happy 4th to you, too, emulatorloo!

[emulatorloo]

70. Yeah. But I've decided to try to boost all our candidates up, and stay away from personal attacks

even if it doesn’t really matter in the long run, it is what I want to do.

Compare Policy differences, records yes, because that’s how we figure it out. I have a pretty long shortlist

Thanks for the clip, I love it! i’m constantly either singing/playing something or listening to lots of music. Music’s always there for us.

Here’s one of my favorite songs about music, pure Brian Wilson:

[Demsrule86]

60. Biden was against busing...which was a failed program period.

[Kind of Blue]

62. Unfortunately your emphatic period changes nothing. Period.

[marylandblue]

54. He wants to provide more money to Title I schools and fully fund special ed.

He says his goal is to make sure every child has a good education "regardless of zip code."

[Voltaire2]

57. So separate but equal?

[Demsrule86]

61. So you think forced busing will work in the 21st century...we have school choice now

goodness..busing, segregation...a blast from the past for sure.

[emulatorloo]

67. You're trying too hard.

JMHO of course. Knock yourself out. I don’t think this kind of “gotcha” word parsing/word twisting negative campaigning will help your preferred candidates do any better.

[marylandblue]

69. I knew you would say something like that. We have separate but unequal now.

So at least he tries to address the inequalities, which is more than most want to do. If you have a solution that isn't going to cause a mass rebellion, I'd like to hear it.

[Voltaire2]

72. And yet there it is, separate but equal.

Our party retreated from it’s historic commitment to desegregation when the political cost headed north to cities like Boston. It was ok when the federal government desegregated southern schools at gunpoint. But angry northern white people were a bridge too far.

[marylandblue]

75. Not sure what your point is. Yes the party retreated. And we aren't going to try that again.

But that doesn't mean we should do nothing at all. Like i saud, if you have a better plan, lets hear it

[cwydro]

13. I never even hear or see Beto mentioned anymore.

It seems they’ve written him off.

[Kind of Blue]

19. Yeah, I think feisty Castro targeting him during the debate

and Beto response made him seem unprepared on immigration.

He's got another chance and I'm glad that he's working on improving his debating skills.

Former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke huddled with some of his campaign’s top donors and bundlers to discuss his poorly reviewed debate performance Wednesday night.

The financiers discussed with O’Rourke how to improve for what will be a crucial debate in July for the former lawmaker.

He “will be aware of what he needs to do to prepare for the next debate, and fortunately the needed improvements are purely stylistic,” said a top O’Rourke backer on the call.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/27/beto-orourke-donors-to-discuss-improving-debate-performance.html

[wyldwolf]

15. Fresh ABC/WAPO Poll: African Americans: Biden - 41%, Harris - 11% n/t

[ucrdem]

16. Debate performance bounces are usually temporary ...

Biden has been on the national stage 40 years, Harris 2, so there's lots more to remember than one good or bad night for Biden.

[Skya Rhen]

17. Perfectly stated!

[ucrdem]

18. Someone mentioned that she would do a great job debating Pence

And if Biden is looking for a combative veep he could do worse!

But I don't see any chance of Trump agreeing to a debate with any of them.

[Kind of Blue]

22. Or you could look at it this way, "Support for Biden among blacks cut in half

with about two out of 10 saying they backed President Barack Obama’s former vice president, compared with four out of 10 in the June poll."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/bidens-support-from-black-voters-cut-in-half-after-debate-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKCN1TY1AM

[ucrdem]

28. Yes, that's a data point. But:

If Kamala pulled ahead she'd get the same relentless swiftboating Joe is getting now. So far, she hasn't gotten any and the media has been directing all their long knives at Joe. Including this poll and others which are as dust in the wind.

[Kind of Blue]

36. I'm not into but-but-buts and whataboutisms now.

It's dust in the wind to you. I enjoy following day-to-day trends.

Strongly disagree that she hasn't gotten the media attention's long knives. Just a few of many from the sublime to the ridiculous and these tidbits are just from last week. She's been criticized all year and for years now. For sure more is coming.

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-joe-biden-hate-white-people-video-1446450

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kamala-harris-got-it-wrong-in-sad-attack-on-biden-former-us-senator-says

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/30/kamala-harris-joe-biden-2020-1391212

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/kamala-harris-barked-up-wrong-tree-in-attacking-biden-on-race

https://www.thedailybeast.com/tucker-carlson-defends-don-jr-for-retweeting-birther-style-kamala-harris-smear

https://blackchristiannews.com/2019/06/kamala-harris-criticized-for-capitalizing-on-debate-success-with-30-that-little-girl-was-me-t-shirt/

[ucrdem]

38. I didn't say I didn't enjoy following trends, just that tomorrow's polls will be different.

Okay she's getting pushback on her debate maneuver. That was last week. Swiftboating is relentless wall-to-wall personal accusations condemning every word ever spoken or written in the last half century. Kamala hasn't gotten a speck of that.

[Kind of Blue]

39. I didn't say you didn't enjoy trends in responding to your

dust in the wind comment.

[Kind of Blue]

21. Or you could look at it this way, "Support for Biden among blacks cut in half

with about two out of 10 saying they backed President Barack Obama’s former vice president, compared with four out of 10 in the June poll."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/bidens-support-from-black-voters-cut-in-half-after-debate-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKCN1TY1AM

[marylandblue]

30. "a lot.more to remember," is more curse than blessing.

Your opponents will look for every opportunity to pick your record apart and portray you as a creature of Washington. We have the benefit of hindsight to see what he got wrong. This has worked against many experienced candidates in the last 40 years -Mondale, Dole, McCain and above all others - Hillary.

Busing and Anita Hill are just two among many possible attacks on his past, and we no longer can expect other Democrats to fight fair.

[ucrdem]

34. Yes, those positions are problems in primary debates, but they will be assets in November 2020.

The media seem determined to prevent Joe from getting there and Kamala and Cory are playing along. I wish they hadn't.

[Demit]

35. We haven't even gotten to his involvement in the Bankruptcy Act.

If Warren and Biden are on the same stage in the next debate, she'll mop the floor with him on that. Recalling his doings vis-a-vis the Bankruptcy Bill is totally fair because, unlike the defunct issue of busing, it is having such draconian effect on people today.

[Kind of Blue]

20. Or you could look at it this way, "Support for Biden among blacks cut in half

with about two out of 10 saying they backed President Barack Obama’s former vice president, compared with four out of 10 in the June poll."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/bidens-support-from-black-voters-cut-in-half-after-debate-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKCN1TY1AM

[Demsrule86]

24. New polls do not show that. In fact Sanders who is polling below Biden is considerably

higher than Harris in today's polls. Good for him. He didn't attack anyone...merely ran on his policy as he has done most of this campaign.

[Kind of Blue]

25. I wish you'd link to the new polls. This Quinnipiac poll conducted June 28 to July 1.

From the article

Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont were in third and fourth place in the poll, with 14 percent and 13 percent, respectively. Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, was in fifth, with 4 percent support.

In the Quinnipiac's poll of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters last month, Biden received the support of 30 percent of the respondents, while Sanders had 19 percent, Warren had 15 percent and Buttigieg had 8 percent.

Harris had 7 percent support.

[Demsrule86]

29. They have been posted...and are brand new today.

I will see about some links before I leave...I didn't post them ...but I look at the polls.

[Demsrule86]

45. This tells you the other two polls in same post as first one but...here it is.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287187550#post2

[Kind of Blue]

47. Oh, I see. As per the title, the OP is really about black support for Biden.

The poll, conducted June 28 to July 1, also showed that Harris had caught up with Biden in receiving support from black Democratic voters — a bloc with which Biden has done well.

In the latest poll, Biden's support among black Democratic voters shrunk to 31 percent from 48 percent in the June poll. Harris, on the other hand, saw her support among black Democratic voters grow to 27 percent, from 11 percent in the June poll. The June poll numbers on African American voters were provided to NBC by Quinnipiac.

The poll suggests a substantial upswing for Harris and a notable decline for the former vice president. In the Quinnipiac's poll of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters last month, Biden received the support of 30 percent of the respondents, while Sanders had 19 percent, Warren had 15 percent and Buttigieg had 8 percent.

[Demsrule86]

44. I happened to see one...so here goes...

I had missed this one too...I have a few more minutes so I will look again.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287187550

[Kind of Blue]

48. Please don't bother yourself with that if it's not about the main point of the OP. For clarity sake,

here's another link about the OP.

One of the more interesting facets of the Democratic primary campaign so far has been how Joe Biden, the former vice president to the first black president, has held a lead among black voters, even as two black senators are running.

Biden still leads with 36%, while Kamala Harris comes in with 24%. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders follow with 12% and 9% respectively. Warren and Sanders are about where they were in a combination of our April and May samples.

Biden's advantage though has definitely ebbed over the last few months. In our April and May combined samples, Biden led the pack among African-Americans with 49%.

Meanwhile, Harris was all the way back in fourth place with 6%. In other words, she's jumped about 20 points.

Harris' gain follows a significant uptick in endorsements from black lawmakers. Harris now leads Biden in endorsements from Congressional Black Caucus members.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/democratic-primary-poll-july-2019/h_3a4e0334aea0592739c6caab1aa3046c

[NastyRiffraff]

63. I don't trust polls this early

but I follow them, to see the trends. Is someone's jump temporary or does it keep happening? Does a downward spiral really mean a candidate is toast? (It can, if the trend continues).

[Kind of Blue]

65. I agree and enjoy following trends as well.