New ABC /WAPO Poll: Maybe they didn't watch the debates? Or...

[wyldwolf]

Reports of Joe Biden's demise are greatly exaggerated.


A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic Presidential field with 29%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 23%, Kamala Harris At 11% and Elizabeth Warren At 11%.

A wide advantage in perceived electability boosts Joe Biden in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

In current preferences, 29% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents support Biden and 23% favor Sanders, with 11% apiece for Harris and Elizabeth Warren. The number of undecided potential voters has dropped sharply after the first debates, with gains in support for each of these candidates. Others are in the low single digits, at best.

Given the time to register to vote in advance of the caucus and primary season, these results are among all leaned Democrats. Among those who are registered now, Biden goes to a 30-19% advantage over Sanders, with 13% for Harris and 12% for Warren.


Crosscurrents underlie candidate preferences in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. A broad plurality, 45%, says Biden has the best chance to beat President Donald Trump in the general election, but only 18% say he has new ideas, trailing Sanders, Warren and Harris alike.

An impact is apparent: among the half of leaned Democrats who did not watch either of the two nights of debates, just 5% support Harris for the nomination. Among those who watched the debate in which she appeared, by contrast, her support swells to 20%. That places her numerically second among Thursday-night viewers; Biden has 28% support in this group; Warren, 17%; and Sanders, 15%.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-scores-debate-performance-electability-biden-front/story?id=64092090

[watoos]

1. Polls are propaganda tools,

from what I have observed, Trump fears Harris and Warren.

People who are polled say that Biden is the most electable because the M$M told them Biden is the most electable.

No new ideas isn't going to inspire the millennials and Hillary lost because voter turnout was low, especially from millennials.

[wyldwolf]

3. heh!

Last edited Wed Jul 3, 2019, 08:54 AM - Edit history (1)

"Polls are propaganda tools"

People losing in polls often claim polls are suspect. But I must admit, I've never seen anyone insinuate a candidate is pulling the strings of a poll or that a polling firm is in bed with a candidate. Until you.

"from what I have observed, Trump fears Harris and Warren. "

Now I HAVE seen plenty of people who believe chit chat at backyard cookouts and chatter at their job's break room is an indicator of something. It isn't.

"People who are polled say that Biden is the most electable because the M$M told them Biden is the most electable."

You have some science behind that statement, I assume.

[DownriverDem]

7. Actually

trump fears Biden.

[onetexan]

8. Seems the thinking is theyve gotta knock him down to get ratings

[LeftTurn3623]

11. I agree

[JI7]

2. the media and their day to day BREAKING NEWS exaggerated crap is annoying

[Cha]

4. KR!

[beachbum bob]

5. primary debates don't make a person any more or any less electable...just another form of

"reality tv" with gotcha moments and I don't watch those either.

[thesquanderer]

6. Even though viewership was high, the vast majority of voters did not watch the debates.

Last edited Wed Jul 3, 2019, 09:04 AM - Edit history (1)

In fact, I think this poll over-samples debate watchers, since they say half the Dem/Dem-leaning voters polled watched the debate.

138 million voted in 2016. If roughly half were Dem or Dem leaning, that's about 70 million. The number who watched the debates would have had to have been about 35 million for the poll sample to justify having 50% debate watchers, and it wasn't that high.

(Of course, even those who didn't watch the debates may well have seen news coverage and clips.)

[Kahuna7]

9. Obviously, these post debate polls are all over the place...

Personally, I would wait a couple of weeks for them to settle before I put any stock in them.


The important take away is:
Among those who watched the debate in which she appeared, by contrast, her support swells to 20%. That places her numerically second among Thursday-night viewers; Biden has 28% support in this group; Warren, 17%; and Sanders, 15%.

[ucrdem]

10. "gains in polling for particular candidates immediately after debates are often temporary"

K'n'R