Sanders slips in polls, raising doubts about campaign

[nitpicker]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/451449-sanders-slips-in-polls-raising-doubts-about-campaign

Sanders slips in polls, raising doubts about campaign

By Jonathan Easley - 07/03/19 06:00 AM EDT 490comments

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is slipping in polls following the first Democratic debate, raising questions about whether he can recapture the insurgent energy that nearly carried him to the party's presidential nomination in 2016.

Three new polls released after the first Democratic debate show Sanders falling into fourth place behind former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Kamala Harris (Calif.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.).
(snip)

The Sanders campaign is pushing back, arguing that their candidate is once again being underestimated by Washington insiders and the news media.
(snip)

[Freddie]

1. Good, keep slipping

We need to WIN the election.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. Progressive agenda is no longer an insurgency, it's widespread

Sanders was divisive in 2016, that baggage is not helping him here, and other candidates have picked up on his issues with parallel or alternative policy proposals. It's no longer just about economic equality and powerful corporations. People understand how politics is affecting their lives now. But the seeds of issues that Bernie planted grow on, and he should be proud of that.

[LeftTurn3623]

7. my concern though

is Bernie & Warren you know this is what they truly believe in and would make real change. I'm not so sure most of the others would actually make real change.

[bucolic_frolic]

10. There's no change at all if you don't win

So half a loaf is better than none. Doubts make for an unsettled self. Oh ye of little faith.

[nitpicker]

3. From Real Clear Politics

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

(released 3 Jul) ABC News/Wash Post Biden 30, Sanders 19, Harris 13, Warren 12, Buttigieg 4, O'Rourke 2, Booker 1, Castro 3, Klobuchar 2, Gabbard 1, Yang 0, Bennet 1, Gillibrand 0 (polled 28 Jun-1 Jul)

(released 2 Jul) Quinnipiac Biden 22, Sanders 13, Harris 20, Warren 14, Buttigieg 4, O'Rourke 1, Booker 3, Castro 1, Klobuchar 1, Gabbard 1, Yang 1, Bennet 0, Gillibrand 0 (polled 28 Jun-1 Jul)

(another poll that showed Sanders trailing was on the Iowa caucuses)

(released 1 Jul) CNN Biden 22, Sanders 14, Harris 17, Warren 15, Buttigieg 4, O'Rourke 3, Booker 3, Castro 1, Klobuchar 2, Gabbard 1, Yang 1, Bennet 0, Gillibrand 0 (polled 28-30 Jun)

(released 1 Jul) The Hill/HarrisX Biden 33, Sanders 15, Harris 11, Warren 9, Buttigieg 6, O'Rourke 4, Booker 2, Castro 1, Klobuchar 0, Gabbard 1, Yang 1, Bennet 1, Gillibrand 1 (polled 29-30 Jun)

[nitpicker]

4. From the RCP link to the ABC poll analysis

(snip)
An impact is apparent: Among the half of leaned Democrats who did not watch either of the two nights of debates, just 5 percent support Harris for the nomination. Among those who watched the debate in which she appeared, by contrast, her support swells to 20 percent. That places her numerically second among Thursday-night viewers; Biden has 28 percent support in this group; Warren, 17 percent; and Sanders, 15 percent.

Warren also does better among viewers of her debate than non-viewers, 17 vs. 8 percent support. Showing strength among highly engaged leaned Democrats, she reaches 22 percent, virtually matching Biden’s 25 percent, among those who watched both debates.

There’s no meaningful difference in Biden’s support across debate-watching groups, and Sanders gets the booby prize – higher support among those who did not watch the debates, 26 percent, vs. 15 percent among those who watched the debate in which he appeared and 10 percent among those who watched both nights. Comparative inattention fits with his younger support profile; 18- to 29-year-olds, his best group, are least likely to have tuned in.
(snip)

[nitpicker]

5. To me, this indicates one reason why the polls are varying so wildly

The various pollsters may have differed on the relative numbers for those who watched the debates and those who did not.

[LibFarmer]

6. Sanders in single digits will be wonderful nt

[cwydro]

8. I don't see him regaining ground.

He’s losing people who once supported him, and he’s not attracting any new voters.

[floppyboo]

15. can you support that or is it an opinion?

If you are using polls as proof, remember that if you are looking at 'registered Dem voters' they are contacting people that either voted in the last primaries (very old data now) or, if I remember seeing it correctly, voted in 2018. In both cases, they are not contacting the younger, just registered, voters - who skew Sanders.

I wouldn't get too comfortable yet.

[NurseJackie]

9. Excellent news. Glad to hear this.

[Demsrule86]

11. You might want to take a look at today's polls Sanders gained about 1%. And Joe is

winning decisively.

[marylandblue]

17. I see three national and one Iowa poll today.

In two, Biden is down a lot, in one he is down a little bit and in the Iowa poll, he is losing to Warren.

[Vegas Roller]

12. He should drop out nt

[MineralMan]

13. Maybe he could run for the Senate...

[zackymilly]

14. You know the nearer your destination...

...The more you're slip slidin' away...

[Go Vols]

16. ty for the link

A fourth poll, released Wednesday morning as this story was published, found Sanders retaining his second place standing behind Biden. The ABC News-Washington Post poll found Biden in the lead at 29 percent, followed by Sanders at 23 percent and Harris and Warren lagging at 11 percent each.

The Sanders campaign says those counting him out are once again underestimating a candidate who surprised the political world three years ago and remains a small-dollar fundraising juggernaut with an enthusiastic core of supporters.

Sanders has an inexhaustible base of grass-roots donors that will churn out tens of millions of dollars for him as long as he’s in the race.

On Tuesday, the campaign announced that it raised $18 million in the second quarter, collected from about 1 million donors giving an average of $18 a piece. Nearly the entire amount came from donors who will be able to give again.