***IOWA*** Buoyed by a strong debate performance Warren catapults to 1st place. Bernie falls to 4th

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.focusonruralamerica.com/2019/07/03/july-2019-poll-results/

Editorial Note- The trend does not seem to be Bernie's friend

[Demsrule86]

1. The Poll was taken right after the debate...secondly with the margin of error +- 4 ,

it is essentially a statistical tie. Thus no one can be considered to be a front runner...and only 600 folks were polled. We shall see.

[bluewater]

3. Usually 500 to 1000 people are polled

I read that polling ~500 people permits obtaining a margin of error of =/- 4 % at a 95% confidence level. statistically.

Polling 1000 people doesn't cut the margin of error in half, but just reduces it to +/- 3%. So there is a diminishing return in polling more and more people.

So, probably for financial reasons and quick response time, most polls interview ~500-1000 people.

[Demsrule86]

5. I am not faulting the poll...only pointing out that the poll was actually taken

right after the debate; although, the results were released I believe today and with an error rate +-4 statistically...the result are a statistical tie of the top four. I do not by the way agree that this poll is bad for Sanders or for any of the top four really.

[bluewater]

9. I am not faulting you in anyway either.

You mentioned 600 people being polled, so I thought I would provide information on why polls seem to interview 500-1000 people.

And people should remember that reported margins of error, like the +/- 4% in this poll, is statistically at a 95% confidence level, not 100%.

[Demsrule86]

12. I read somewhere that it was 600...but I could be wrong about that and thanks for the info.

I understand confidence interval levels...but with numbers this close...it simply is not an accurate forcast. In fact the poll itself said the top three are tied. Time will tell. and I would like to know how many responded also.It is hard to judge without this information...but it is early yet so we shall see. Also most contacted had seen the debate and the poll was taken right after the debate. Thus, I would be more interested to see a poll further out from the debate (this would indicate whether there are lasting effects or not)...and the debate was mentioned in the calls as well...given what was reported.

"The Focus on Rural America poll shows the current top candidates are in a virtual three-way tie. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris are on top with 20% and 18% respectively while Vice President Biden holds 17%. Next in line is Senator Bernie Sanders at 12%, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 10% and Senator Amy Klobuchar at 4%.

The two nights of debate made for a crowded stage and had a huge impact on voters. 63% saw some or more of the debate while 83% followed the debate’s media coverage. 26% of voters said the debates had a big impact their opinions, in addition to the 37% who were persuaded by the debates at least somewhat."

Time will tell...interesting poll though.

[bluewater]

19. you might be right about 600

It's been a while since I have seen the exact numbers. But we are essentially agreeing.

I have seen polls recently with numbers interviewed being like 479, and claiming a 4% margin of error.

So, 500, 600, close enough for government work, I guess.

[bluewater]

4. You can tell when a race has tightened up

It's when we all start talking about the margin of error in the polls.

[Demsrule86]

13. I am always inerested in the margin of error...but it is more important in statistical ties

or close races.

[qazplm135]

2. If he finishes fourth, he's in trouble

if he finishes fifth, he done.

[Demsrule86]

7. It is more along the lines of delegate count...if no one wiins with a substantial amount of

delegates...it is meaningless..and pleny of folks have won Iowa and lost or not won Iowa and won. I actually expect Joe to do fine.

[qazplm135]

20. lol

I wasn't even talking about Biden. I was talking about Bernie. You are so invested in Biden you don't even pay attention to the posts you are responding to.

[Goodheart]

6. Excellent! If Warren wins the Iowa primary I think we're talking PRESIDENT WARREN!

[ucrdem]

8. Iowa is going to love Harris and Warren's busing plans.

And their plans to abolish private health care providers.

[crazytown]

10. Voluntary busing and

supplemental private insurance. There's always a way out. Now votes for incarcerated felons, that's a different story.

[ucrdem]

11. Don't forget reparations and decriminalizing border violations.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for four of the five (I think we need to stick with the ACA and allow private health plans, most of which are non-profit), but they won't play well in Iowa.

[crazytown]

14. Warren is a bit murky on health care.

In this campaign she has said she would support (sign) a bill strengthening the ACA with a Medicaid buy-in. Harris hasn't left herself much wiggle room (yet). Pete has the most thoughtful answers on reparations. I'm guessing the public is comfortable with U-turn these days. Biden got kudos for ditching the Hyde Amendment, from the left, but kudos nevertheless. We are living in an era where the firmest promise of them all was Mexico would pay for the wall.

[ucrdem]

15. She raised her hand when asked if she would abolish her private health insurer

And when it came her turn to talk about health care said "I'm with Bernie." And Bernie supports abolishing private insurers.

I didn't watch the first night but there's been discussion of it here and I saw the "i'm with Bernie" clip in one of the threads.

But, you make a good point about U-turns. With so many faces and plans it's not easy to track them.

[crazytown]

16. I feel like a lone wolf here

but I keep coming back to Bernie's promise to give incarcerated felons the vote. For any of us who remember Willie Horton, this is dynamite.

[ucrdem]

17. It would be in the general, sure.

But Bernie probably doesn't have to worry about that. Warren does though, and her position on health insurance seems pretty risky. Here's a longer version of what she said at the first debate, from WHYY:

She was also the sole person on stage (except for one-percent candidate Bill de Blasio) who called for the abolition of private health insurance — a stance she hadn’t articulated on the campaign trail. Here’s some of what she said last night:

“I’m with Bernie on ‘Medicare for all.’ And let me tell you why. I spent a big chunk of my life studying why families go broke. And one of the number one reasons is the cost of health care, medical bills. And that’s not just for people who don’t have insurance. It’s for people who have insurance.

https://whyy.org/articles/elizabeth-warren-wants-to-abolish-private-health-insurance-uh-oh/

[Demsrule86]

18. It is a three way tie according to the link.