I am still officially "undecided"

[BlueMTexpat]

and I am not necessarily a believer in polls, which can change so easily from one day to the next. Or not.

But this is a good article, IMO, and expresses what I am seeing and feeling. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/7/3/20679930/2020-presidential-election-polls-harris-biden-warren-sanders

The state of the 2020 Democratic primary, explained

To be clear: Biden remains the leader in every recent poll. But the size of that lead on average is no longer as impressive as it’s been — and in a few polls, it’s gotten quite small indeed, raising questions about just how solid the frontrunner’s position is.

Sanders, meanwhile, has lost his position as the one major alternative to Biden. The Vermont senator’s support level in polls has dropped significantly since the early months of the year and has remained stagnant for the past two months while Warren and Harris have surged. On average, that trio of candidates is now about tied for second place.

The only other candidate to escape the bottom tier in polls so far has been South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. But Buttigieg has declined a bit of late, as he deals with a police shooting back at home and more support has gone to Warren and Harris. While both senators now enjoy double-digit support, the mayor is stuck in the single digits in most recent polls. The other 20 candidates have failed to gain any traction.

Seven long months remain until the Iowa caucuses. The big question for the race right now, though, is whether this post-debate slump is a temporary setback for Biden — or whether it’s the start of his campaign’s collapse.

There is an excellent graph included with the article.

I have a long memory and remember and have lived through many Presidential cycles. Just sayin' ....

*********
My only guarantee is that I WILL VOTE FOR whichever candidate is selected as the Democratic nominee. That should go without saying.

[targetpractice]

1. I don't really understand "undecided" as a DU preference option...

The DU preferences are not votes, because anyone can change their mind at anytime. The preference option is not really a poll, either.

I chose Buttigieg initially, but I'm really thinking of switching to Harris.

I suppose that I'm frustrated that 37% of the primary forum participants aren't expressing a preference. Why? Do you truly have "no preference" at any given moment? To me, such a large percentage of "undecided" makes the declared preferences almost meaningless.

My wish for those "undecided" ... State your preference and change your minds as much as you want... I think that would be more informative than withholding.

Just my thoughts, and your thoughtful post inspired me to chime in.

[Shrek]

2. +1

The question is phrased: "If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for..."

Going into a voting booth and selecting "Undecided" isn't something you can do. It's an incoherent response to the question as phrased.

[LanternWaste]

3. And if the response to the question is "I simply don't know at this time"

"If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for..."

And if the answer to the question is "I simply don't know at this time" you guys would still be confused? Too incoherent for you?

As no one is going into the voting booth today, that point becomes moot until Feb 02.

[targetpractice]

5. It's not confusing...

...It's just a very poorly constructed feature of DU.

A question is asked, "If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for..."... And, an "undecided" option is presented that pollutes the results and makes the feature and results mostly useless.

Why bother to ask at all?

[Act_of_Reparation]

9. What you're proposing is no more useful.

If a significant percentage of those declaring themselves for, say, Buttigieg might possibly switch to another candidate in a few weeks, then the data have no predictive power.

[targetpractice]

10. I never thought it was meant to be predictive...

It seems like it was meant to take the current pulse of DU members. I absolutely would expect results to change after debates or other circumstances.

Right now, as the feature is implemented... Undecided allows 37% of primary forum participants to post without sharing their current preference. So, what's the point? Why limit the primary forum participants at all?

[BlueMTexpat]

7. Good point. eom

[targetpractice]

4. Yes... It's kind of like those who claim a right "not to vote"...

... Which I remember from the time I joined DU during the Bush v Gore recount... Some Bush lawyers brought in "non-voters" who complained about trying to interpret dimpled or hanging chad "undervotes" as an intentional, but unsuccessful "vote" was somehow violating their right to not vote. Ridiculous.

IMHO, If you don't vote, why should I listen to your political opinion?

Of course this DU situation is different, and as you point out Shrek... Having an "undecided" option for the DU question is truly incoherent.

[BlueMTexpat]

6. The thing is that I am literally torn

between two candidates ... and have been since the beginning. I had hoped that the debates would help me. In some ways, they did. In others, they did not.

There are several candidates that I know that I will never select as a primary preference. But that is a different matter.

You have your way of deciding. I have mine. You have your way of interpreting the options. I have mine. I really believe that we can co-exist. But that does not mean that I need to hop from one candidate to another simply to please others.

So long as "undecided" IS an option - and it is - I will use that option UNTIL I can commit. I do not commit lightly. And once I do commit, I will remain with that preference throughout the primaries, failing some deus ex machina to the contrary.

Perhaps I am wrong, but I believe that many in the "undecided" category are like me. We have a plethora of truly outstanding candidates: some with better-known profiles than others. There are almost none who are not personally charming as well, however else one may feel about them. It really is difficult to choose.

Like you, I love many of the things that Buttigieg says. I specifically love the fact that he is multilingual and has an open mind towards the rest of the world because these things are important to me as an individual. But there are other candidates who I believe understand the workings of the federal government much better than he does and have specific ideas as to how to implement the policies they say they espouse ... and those candidates also have clear track records for implementing real change that helps average Americans.

So it is not for me to "fall in love" with a candidate and follow the prevailing winds of polls or whatever else. It is that I need to have a certain confidence that my preferred candidate can and will at least effectively attempt to deliver what they say they will. Sound bites won't do it for me. Thoughtful analysis will.

If it helps at all, I do not believe that I will be "undecided" much longer.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

[SunsetDreams2]

8. +1

I haven’t made up my mind yet either. There is nothing wrong with being undecided this far out from the first primary vote. Out of the 4 right now that I’m watching, I will say there is one that I’m leaning towards. I don’t think I will be undecided much longer either.

[targetpractice]

11. I wish DU could capture 1st, 2nd, 3rd choice preferences somehow...

I think that would result in less "undecideds" and offer some predictive insights. For example, how many of those who don't currently support Biden would support him as second choice. This would allow us to understand if his current percentage represents a ceiling for him and if progressives might coalesce around a more progressive candidate left standing.

Thanks for this discussion!

[GreenPartyVoter]

12. I have a top 4 at this time. While I suspect my top spot is

pretty solid, I am waiting until after all of the debates as I want to see more of the candidates and watch how they are polling. I am trying to balance my preferences against strategic voting. I have a preferred list of policies, but if I have to put them on hold to trounce Trump, then so be it.

I guess if they had an "anybody but Trump, but hopefully the candidate most closely aligned with me" option, I'd be all over it!

[Skid Rogue]

13. Good for you! That's a great place to be!

It's a long, long season. Hopefully you'll be more impartial. We need people who aren't hell bent on one candidate or the other.