Democratic Primaries

Celerity

(43,077 posts) Wed Jul 3, 2019, 01:35 PM Jul 2019

New National Poll (June 30 - July 2) Biden 21%, Warren 18%, Harris 13%, Sanders 10%, Pete 9%

No one else above 3%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4ggh3e3308/econTabReport.pdf

9 point drop in Joe's lead since their poll 2 weeks ago

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/f0cbavpadc/econTabReport.pdf

The Poll is B rated by 538, 88% of races called correctly

Biden lost a net 7 points of black voter support compared to Warren and Harris combined, and a net negative 9 points in Hispanic support to Warren and Harris combined

Pete lost 1 point in black voter support, from 3% to 2%, so this continues a worrying trend.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

6 replies

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Highlight:

New National Poll (June 30 - July 2) Biden 21%, Warren 18%, Harris 13%, Sanders 10%, Pete 9% (Original Post) Celerity Jul 2019 OP

There seems to be two groups of Pollsters bluewater Jul 2019 #1

The polls are all over the place. crazytown Jul 2019 #2

Can you provide an aggregate of the data you allege? LanternWaste Jul 2019 #3

RCP Polls shows the data bluewater Jul 2019 #5

The differences are due to methodology. Pollsters have differing approaches. Politicub Jul 2019 #4

Different polls...different numbers...but showng the same trends Chitown Kev Jul 2019 #6

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

1. There seems to be two groups of Pollsters

Reply to Celerity (Original post)

Wed Jul 3, 2019, 02:14 PM

Jul 2019

One group, like this pollster, consistently has Biden polling in the mid to low 20% range.

The other group consistently has Biden in the mid to low 30% range.

That's a 10% difference between polls done by reputable pollsters.

I can't explain it. I have no idea who is correct.

I just expected pollsters rated as reputable by 538 to be in more agreement.

Can you explain this disconnect?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

2. The polls are all over the place.

Reply to bluewater (Reply #1)

Wed Jul 3, 2019, 02:26 PM

Jul 2019

Before the debate, two polls could be trusted to give Biden 35-38% - Quinnipiac & Morning consult. The others had him in twenties. My take: The 0%ers should pack it in.