When Will Struggling Candidates Bail for Another Office?

[DonViejo]

July 5, 2019 at 7:24 am EDT By Taegan Goddard

Washington Post: “The 2020 Democratic presidential race is still wide open, but candidates who have yet to break through have to decide how long they want to ride it out. In some cases, their ambitions for political Plan B will force them to make that call sooner rather than later.”

###

https://politicalwire.com/2019/07/05/when-will-struggling-candidates-bail-for-another-office/

[pamdb]

1. 2020

Yeah, like running for senate. Are you listening Beto and Hickenloper and I’m sure there are others. It’s not going to do us a lot of good if we get the presidency back and still have McTurtle.

[Indygram]

2. Polls don't match what is happening on the ground

where Beto is concerned. His support is extremely strong with young voters and new voters who don't get polled. He's not running for Senate no matter how many of the supporters of other candidates who feel threatened by his presence in the race say that he should.

[Celerity]

3. I agree he will not run for Senate. Cornyn is far more difficult to beat than Cruz, and another

general election defeat would really damage his chances politically moving forward. Cruz would fare eve worse than Beto versus Cornyn. MJ Hegar is probably going to be our general election candidate.


I so hope she can beat Cornyn, but of all the 11 potential R to D flips:


Alaska (I hope Mark Begich, ex Senator, runs versus Sullivan)

Maine (Susan Rice, who has said no, would be the best to knock out Collins IMHO, but hopefully we can find another one)

Montana (Bullock is basically the only one of ours who would have a great chance at beating Daines, I think Bullock would defeat him)

Colorado (even if Hickenlooper refuses, I think Gardner goes down)

Tennessee (open Rethug seat, due to Alexander retiring, I so hope Tim McGraw reconsiders his turndown)

Georgia (Abrams would be the best chance by far to beat Perdue)

Kansas (open Rethug seat due to Roberts retiring, the right candidate for us has a shot, maybe Kathleen Sebelius)

Iowa (Cindy Axne, probably our best chance to beat Ernst, but has declined to run, but I have hope we can find another great candidate)

North Carolina (our two best candidates, Foxx and Stein have both said no, grrr, hope one, especially Foxx, re-considers)

Kentucky is the 2nd toughest but Ashley Judd might have a shot at dumping McTurtle, as might a couple others, due to McConnell being truly hated even by some Rethugs, his overall approval numbers are worse than Rump by far, amongst the bottom in all the Senate

Texas


Cornyn in Texas is the toughest reach, IMHO.

[Indygram]

4. I can't speak to the other states, but Collins is EXTREMELY vulnerable in Maine this time

She was viewed as a moderate who tried to represent Mainers until Kavanaugh. Her support of him infuriated people so badly that for the first time ever people protested outside of her home in a town where she had always had quite strong support and was popular.

On Edit:
Regarding Texas, prior to Beto energizing new and young voters and getting them to actually vote...Texans were at the bottom of the country for voter turnout. Beto has proven he can rally Texans. If he is the nominee I am confident Texas will go Blue and Cornyn loses. With how adored Beto is in Texas and the fact that he is running and Texas' history of not usually voting I'm really worried that with how horribly he has been treated, and quite unfairly so, that many of those new voters will go back to not voting in Texas. The Running With Beto documentary should be required viewing for every Democrat to see the stories of the people he inspired and motivated. Democrats MUST nurture what he created there and when people are condescending and dismissive of Beto they are being condescending and dismissive of his supporters and all of their hard work in Texas. That's a huge mistake and really needs to stop. It happens far too often even on this forum.

[Celerity]

5. she is still a net plus in approval, even with all the bullshit moves, in most polls

but is trending down (underwater by 1 point in one, which is down 17% from last fall)


some examples

https://morningconsult.com/senator-rankings/




this one is from 3 plus months ago

An early poll shows Susan Collins with a lead over a likely challenger

https://bangordailynews.com/2019/03/26/politics/daily-brief/an-early-poll-shows-susan-collins-with-a-lead-over-a-likely-challenger/

That looks largely to be because the opponent tested alongside her in the regular spring poll from Pan Atlantic Research of Portland — House Speaker Sara Gideon — isn’t well-known statewide. Maine’s U.S. senators and the two Democrats elected to high office in 2018 — Gov. Janet Mills and U.S. Rep. Jared Golden — all enjoy relatively wide popularity statewide.

Collins led Gideon by 22 points in the poll, but there are signs that the potential Democratic opponent could rise with further recognition. The case of Collins is a curious one. She has 62 percent approval in the poll — trailing only independent U.S. Sen. Angus King at 66 percent — and the Republican senator outpolled Gideon handily with 51.2 percent to the Democrat’s 29.1 percent among the online poll’s sample of 500 likely voters.

At the same time, Gideon isn’t doing badly for someone who has never run for state office. She was seen favorably by 33 percent of those surveyed and unfavorably by 26 percent, with another 41 percent not knowing enough about her to make a decision. That latter number would shrink if a campaign launches.






snip

In this newer one she is down to a negative 1

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/f4eda1_fdf61ff89a944d47830f8d36f2fac763.pdf




Finally, here is a new article that gives hope


Democrats Found A Major Recruit To Take On Susan Collins in 2020

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-found-a-major-recruit-to-take-on-susan-collins-in-2020/


Sen. Susan Collins hasn’t even announced she’s running for reelection, but she already has a serious Democratic challenger angling to take her down. Last week, Democrat Sara Gideon announced her campaign for Senate in Maine. As speaker of the state House of Representatives, Gideon could be the challenger Democrats need to defeat Collins, who first won her seat in 1996. Maine’s Democratic lean and Collins’s increasingly polarized profile could make the incumbent vulnerable, and Gideon’s entry into the race reflects this.

Experienced candidates are better candidates. Political scientists have found that candidates who have previously held elected office tend to do well in congressional elections because they have qualities that make them more electable, such as strong political skills and connections to donors. But importantly, experienced challengers are also more likely to run when they believe they have at least a decent chance of winning.

And based on Maine’s political makeup, it’s easy to see why Gideon thinks she has a chance of defeating Collins. As the table below shows, Collins holds the most Democratic-leaning seat held by a Republican that’s on the ballot in 2020, based on FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric.

Maine is bluer than Susan Collins

Partisan lean for each state currently represented by a Republican senator up for reelection in 2020



If Maine continues to go blue in 2020, Collins is likely to be in real danger. While the state is not overwhelmingly Democratic, it has consistently voted for the party’s presidential candidate in every race going back to 1992. And nowadays, states usually back the same party for president and Senate.

snip

tonnes more at the link

[Indygram]

6. I was born and raised

in Maine. Collins can be beat. She has always won because even some Democrats liked her. Her support for Kavanaugh will never be forgiven. As long as there is a decent candidate she can be beat.

[Celerity]

7. Gideon sounds great, lets hope Collins goes DOWN