Emerson Poll *** Biden 53% to Trump 47% / Sanders 51% to Trump 49% / Trump 51% to Harris 49%

[Skya Rhen]

Trump 51% to Warren 49% / Trump 51% to Buttigieg 49%


Biden leads Trump in yet another national poll - the only candidate leading outside the margin of error...


http://emersonpolling.com/2019/07/08/july-national-poll-biden-extends-lead-in-democratic-primary-trump-closes-the-gap-in-the-general-election/

[stonecutter357]

1. let's go Joe !

[Maven]

2. This country has gone insane.

I can't believe it's even that close.

[Skya Rhen]

4. According to the pollster, the last debate is responsible for this...

Snip...

Since the June poll, Trump has seen his head to head numbers improve against all his Democratic rivals. He is now leading Warren, Buttigieg, and Harris 51%-49% each after trailing them all last month. Sanders leads Trump 51%-49% and Biden 53% to 47%.

Kimball says, “It looks like Trump was a winner from the Democratic debate, as his head-to-heads tightened by about 5 points against all the leading Democratic candidates.”



http://emersonpolling.com/2019/07/08/july-national-poll-biden-extends-lead-in-democratic-primary-trump-closes-the-gap-in-the-general-election/

[ucrdem]

43. Noticed that.

[Turin_C3PO]

5. Hopefully

once Warren becomes more well known, she’ll poll better against Trump. I like her, she’s my second choice.

[Turin_C3PO]

3. Good news for Joe but

I’m worried that the other candidates aren’t doing better. We might end up with Warren or Harris as the nominee so we need them to poll better. It’s disturbing how many Americans will still vote for the Idiot.

[ucrdem]

44. More likely is an interminable primary where nobody drops out until June.

And a lousy convention. I hope Joe figures out a way to avoid this.

[Lordquinton]

55. He could avoid it by dropping out early

[ucrdem]

60. That would make Trump happy

but we'd still have an interminable primary.

[andym]

6. Spells trouble with a capital T that stands for Trump

Our candidates, besides Biden are actually tied or losing to Trump within the MOE. Hopefully, this situation will get better soon.

[AncientGeezer]

11. Totally off topic ...but, were you on "FTE"? If so we know each other.

[andym]

75. Sorry-- don't know that FTE means. NT.

[AncientGeezer]

79. Ford truck website. Ford Truck Enthusiats... your name.. 1 I knew from there.

[thesquanderer]

7. Actually, none of them are outside the margin of error,

which is +/- 4.4 (and head-to-heads still have to add up to 100, so you can't alter one side without equally altering the other). So Biden-vs-Trump a 53-47, at the worst side of the MoE becomes Biden 48.6 to Trump at 51.4. (Remember, though, that not all possibilities within the MoE are equally likely... the further the stretch, the less likely it is.)

But that's popular vote, regardless. What matters most is how they poll in key states, i.e. MI, WI, PA.

[totodeinhere]

8. Why in the name of God is that asshole leading Warren and Buttigieg ?

(Albeit withing the margin of error.) What is wrong with people?

[Skya Rhen]

10. See reply #4 - the effects from the debate caused Trump to rise...

according to the Emerson Poll analyst...

[Kahuna7]

19. 100%. Let's high five everybody!....

[totodeinhere]

80. Well lets hope that future debates don't have the same outcome. Or we will be in a world of hurt.

n/t

[madville]

24. It's the primary debate affecting it

That middle 5-10% of the electorate that swings our elections. Many don't like Trump but they don't particularly care for many of the Democratic proposals either like "taking away their private insurance", decriminalizing immigration offenses, reparations, completely canceling student loan debt at taxpayer expense, etc.

Biden is staying more towards the center on these issues which is reflected in his better number vs. Trump.

[Turin_C3PO]

27. I think Warren will walk back her

support of ending private insurance. There is still time to change the narrative on that. I do believe the mushy center can be won over to supporting more progressive policies. If Warren is our nominee, I think she’ll be able to persuade a fair amount of them on the merits of her ideas. After all, the right wing regularly convinces “moderates” to vote for them even when they’re hawking far right policies.

That being said, Joe Biden is probably our best shot at demolishing Trump at the ballot. I want to see him utterly destroyed.

[emmaverybo]

29. Agree. A policy in every pot is a winner for too narrow a part of the electorate. Get in first!

[Turin_C3PO]

31. I think

Warren needs to tie her policies to broader themes. That’s what wins elections, sometimes regardless or in-spite-of policy. I do like most of her plans though and hope, if Joe wins, that some of her ideas are put into the Democratic platform.

[emmaverybo]

46. Platform is where some belong. Agree about general themes. Otherwise, just a dizzying list. NT

[thesquanderer]

9. Also noteworthy: Yang, Gabbard, and Booker passed the 2% threshold,

increasing the odds that they will make it into the 3rd debate, in September.

[LanternWaste]

13. Thankfully, no candidate is arguing for open borders.

You appear to be the only one presupposing that particular premise, as well as the curiously specific, yet still unsupported allegations of "transgender abortions", and all on a most dramatic lack of any objective evidence.

You have a tell.
It's called posting.
"Not well"

[Turin_C3PO]

14. Who is for open borders?

None of our candidates. It’s a right wing talking point. Also, “illegals”? “Transgender abortions”? All right wing talk.

[Maven]

16. No one is calling for open borders and please don't use the term "illegals" to describe people

Also...transgender abortions?

[Arkansas Granny]

17. Just out of curiosity, what is a "transgender abortion"?

[Kahuna7]

18. I agree 100%. The more our Dems reveal their "plans," that are

not entirely feasible, wanted and extremely expensive were they to be implemented (fat chance of that), I've suspected a correlation in trumps improved polling.

I know some people will want to come at me, but I don't plan to respond because

[Turin_C3PO]

20. The problem is

that the poster is using right wing terms like “illegals” , “open borders” and “transgender abortions”.

As you can see, a jury agreed that it was right wing talking points and removed the post.

[Kahuna7]

22. I'm not thinking about the right wing tropes. I addressed what concerns me. nt

[Politicub]

15. This poll stresses me out. Not because Biden. Go Joe and all that.

It's the share of the vote that Trump gets. That's too close.

[Calista241]

23. We're in deep trouble if it's really that close.

There are people out there that like what Trump is doing, but won’t mention it to a soul. My Mom is a hard core Trump believer, but if you didn’t know her like a son, you’d never know it. A pollster would never uncover her Trump support.

I have heard her tell people she voted for Clinton, while knowing who she really voted for.

IMO, the polled lead needs to be at least 10 pets, or were going to be suffering for 4 more years.

[Skya Rhen]

25. Thankfully, we have Biden who stands a decent chance of defeating Trump...

[emmaverybo]

30. THIS.

[Turin_C3PO]

34. I think Biden has the best chance of demolishing Trump.

I think when the general election campaign starts and people start paying attention, that Biden’s lead over the Idiot will increase.

[honest.abe]

26. Yeah, way too close.

Amazing there are so many ignorant people in this country.

Very troubling.

[qazplm135]

28. we have no idea how close it is or isnt

because head to head polls right now for the GE are ridiculous.

[emmaverybo]

35. Taps a feeling. Taps where it's at in the nation at large. Sure, a Messiah might appear. Trump

could be indicted with Epstein.

Until either happens,I think we ignore these polls at our peril. Trump has support, ok?

People are not in the mood for scary huge socio-economic changes that may threaten their pocketbook and their choice. We are getting feedback here.

Be quietly effective. Get in first.

Enough injustice, morally abhorrent things to talk about with voters without getting bogged down
in endless policy wars, defending, explaining, selling...

[qazplm135]

39. no, it doesn't

Of course Trump has support. He's going to have support REGARDLESS of who our candidate is.

BUT, he is not going to have the same support levels in PA, or WI, or MI REGARDLESS of who our candidate is.

People will vote against Trump because they don't like Trump. People are not going to only vote for the most centrist possible candidate we can put up.

BUT IF you want to take this poll as an indicator of something, there is no statistically significant difference between Biden's lead on Trump and Bernie's. None. It's two percentage points. Could as easily be the other way statistically.

So your argument, from this poll, that somehow voters don't want scary huge socio-economic changes is belied by the fact that guy with the most scary huge socio-economic changes is statistically polling the same as the guy with some of the least scary huge socio-economic changes.

[emmaverybo]

50. Actually Bernie runs on ideas about huge change, but doesn't propose all that many specific

policies. You have a point. Fair enough. I am not really talking about Biden per se. Bernie would not win in battle ground states. Bernie has a great deal of support from 2016 plus progressives coming up. And he’s male so he benefits from America’s reactionary views on which gender fits our commander in chief image.

And the scare campaign has not even got off the ground yet.

I stick by what I said. A panoply of progressive policies will get painted as tax and spend and that
perception will overshadow Trump’s evil and unfitness.

Warren should emphasize her qualifications and experience not only her bold ideas. Bernie too.
On down the line.

[qazplm135]

57. and this is what we come back to

since I keep getting comments hidden and alerted from Biden supporters let me be clear....

SOME people seem to be so focused on fear of Trump, that they make arguments based on that fear.

So they think ONLY Biden can win, and then they start doing things like looking at head to head GE polling ridiculously far out and trying to tease out that they show only Biden can win.

And there's no evidence right now that's useful or meaningful to that argument.

The only thing the polling right now shows is:

1. There are four candidates, right now, who could end up winning the primary. CAVEAT: we know at least one possibly two of those candidates will significantly drop off as people coalesce over the course of the primary season. Maybe it's Biden and Bernie, or Biden and Warren, or Biden and Harris. Or maybe it's Harris and Warren, or Bernie and Harris. After one debate, we have no way of knowing as well as we will by November for example.

2. Each of those four candidates is clearly able to beat Trump IF they are the nominee and IF they run the right race. CAVEAT: Each of those four candidates are also able to lose to Trump if they misstep too severely, or other things happen.

That's about all the polling...right now...shows us.

The rest is varying degrees of informed and uninformed speculation.

[Cha]

66. Those are ridiulous accusations.

[qazplm135]

69. ok

well, I will take that well-reasoned, point-by-point rebuttal under advisement.

[Cha]

70. You do that.

[emmaverybo]

67. I have not ever alerted. I object to your accusations about Biden supporters. And I have defended.

Harris in a response to her “stupid” comment and Buttigieg too.Personally, I find Biden
supporters among the most balanced, least likely to engage in stir the pot, divisive games on the board.
I do not see them flocking to good news about an alternative to rebut its accuracy, interject negatives, or post daily “pot stirrers,” so if you are receiving alerts, consider other explanations than that Biden supporters have it in for you.

[qazplm135]

68. same arguments as this thread

except explicitly calling out Biden supporters instead of some people.

But yes I get it #notallBidensupporters

Of course, I have never said "all Biden supporters."

And it's a total shock to see a Biden supporter who finds Biden supporters to be the best posters.

[Cha]

72. And, someone who isn't to be calling

out Biden Supporters.

[Cha]

71. Yeah, such a victim.

[Turin_C3PO]

40. Polls do show our country is more liberal though.

There was a post yesterday that showed our population at its most liberal since 1961. If the right messenger came along, I believe progressive policies would sell.

[wasupaloopa]

32. It's still early, very very early.

[Kaleva]

38. In early 1992, Bush was leading Clinton by about 20 points.

[wasupaloopa]

62. I believe Kamala will over take Biden very soon.

[Kaleva]

65. My feeling right now is that it will be Harris and Warren as the two finalists

[Kaleva]

33. None of our candidates are leading outside the margin of error

With a MOE of +/-4.4%, Trump could be leading Biden 51.4% to 48.6%

[emmaverybo]

37. True. Even our leading candidate might not be leading and yet a vocal slice of the whole pie are

egging on HIS public flogging, “putting him in his place,” ruthless, even unprincipled vetting, knock down drag out debates between this candidate and that, DUers stirring the pot to boiling over.

[Skya Rhen]

52. + 1,000,000,000

[Thekaspervote]

41. Yes, one of them is

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/07/politics/biden-trump-approval-rating-washington-post-abc-poll/index.html

[Kaleva]

45. Old poll?

The one talked about in the OP is about a week newer then the one you linked to.

[Thekaspervote]

47. No, it isn't as you can see in the link it is 7/7/2019

[Kaleva]

48. The poll was conducted June 28 to July 1.

[Thekaspervote]

49. Okay.. I am still wondering how you are figuring a 6% lead is within the margin of error

[Kaleva]

51. In a head to head match up, the total must equal 100

The MOE of the poll is +/- 4.4. If Biden's number is decreased by 4.4, Trump's must then go up 4.4 so the total equals 100.

[Kaleva]

53. Conversely, Biden's lead could be quite large.

IF Biden's number was actually 4.4 percent higher, then Trump's actual number must be 4.4% lower then what's stated in the article.

[Thekaspervote]

59. You seem to have a better understanding of polls than most

[Kaleva]

61. Here's a good article

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/

[Thekaspervote]

73. Thx

[Skya Rhen]

54. Still this poll is very relevant - a difference of a few days make it useless? The trend is

undeniable - Biden is the only candidate that consistently leads Trump in every single head-to-head matchup, by the largest margin...

Fact.

[Kaleva]

56. None of these polls are relevant when trying to predict the outcome of the general election...

which won't take place for well over a year from now.

[Skya Rhen]

58. Relevant to me - they keep me on Cloud 9. What a great feeling to know that my candidate is the

clear front-runner...

[Kaleva]

64. If you look at it that way, then the polls would be relevant!

[Scurrilous]

36. K&R

[AlexSFCA]

42. with razor thin margins like these we have to go with the highest polling option

when the time comes to vote.

[pansypoo53219]

63. i am sick of the gnewz MEdia just doing fucking polls, try WORKING an dcovering issues. plans, how

has the moron helped or hurt america? hell, THE PLANET.

[Gothmog]

74. Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democratic Party has available

[LakeArenal]

76. Polls, shmolls.....

Biden is leading because he is the most a qualified both nationally and globally..

On top of that, a majority think he is a really nice guy.

[Skya Rhen]

77. Yes, it's really not complicated...

[oasis]

78. Biden's sincerity comes shining through. He's the real deal.